Cynefin Framework

Core principle: Before applying any solution, classify the problem domain. The right action in one domain is the wrong action in another. Misclassifying the domain is one of the most common causes of failed interventions.

The Five Domains

1. 🟢 Clear (formerly "Simple")

Relationship: Cause and effect are obvious to everyone. Nature: Best practices exist and are well-known. Approach: Sense → Categorize → Respond

Apply the known best practice
Automate where possible
Don't over-complicate it

Signs you're here: The answer is obvious. Anyone competent would do the same thing.

Danger: Complacency. Clear domains can suddenly become chaotic if conditions change and nobody noticed.

Examples: Resetting a password, deploying a known-working config, following a checklist.

2. 🔵 Complicated

Relationship: Cause and effect exist but require analysis or expertise to see. Nature: Multiple right answers exist; good practice (not best practice). Approach: Sense → Analyze → Respond

Bring in experts or do analysis
Evaluate trade-offs between valid options
Allow time for assessment before acting

Signs you're here: You need an expert, but once they analyze it, the answer becomes clear. There's a knowable right answer.

Danger: Expert overconfidence. Experts can mistake complicated for clear and stop questioning assumptions.

Examples: Software architecture decisions, performance tuning, medical diagnosis, legal strategy.

3. 🟡 Complex

Relationship: Cause and effect are only visible in retrospect. You can't predict outcomes. Nature: Emergent practice — no "right answer" exists in advance. Approach: Probe → Sense → Respond

Run safe-to-fail experiments (small, reversible, parallel)
Amplify what works, dampen what doesn't
Expect and embrace emergence
Don't plan for a single outcome

Signs you're here: Experts disagree. Past data is unreliable. The system involves human behavior, social dynamics, or high interconnectedness.

Danger: Applying complicated or clear approaches (best practices, expert analysis, big-bang solutions) to complex problems. This is the most common mistake.

Examples: Product-market fit discovery, organizational culture change, user behavior patterns, AI system behavior, team dynamics.

4. 🔴 Chaotic

Relationship: No discernible cause and effect. The system is in crisis. Nature: Novel practice — act first to stabilize. Approach: Act → Sense → Respond

Take immediate action to reduce harm and establish order
Don't wait for analysis — the situation is changing faster than analysis can help
Move to complex or complicated once stability is achieved

Signs you're here: Crisis. System is actively failing. No time for deliberation.

Danger: Staying in chaotic mode too long. Once the crisis is contained, move to a more deliberate approach.

Examples: Production outage, security breach, public crisis, team breakdown.

5. ⚫ Disorder (the center)

Relationship: Unknown. You don't know which domain you're in. Approach: Break the situation into parts and classify each one.

Multiple people will interpret the situation through their own domain lens (causing conflict)
Get clarity before acting

Output Format

🗺️ Domain Classification

Assessed domain: Clear / Complicated / Complex / Chaotic / Disorder
Confidence: High / Medium / Low
Key signals that led to this classification
Alternative interpretation: Could this be misclassified? What would that imply?

⚠️ Domain Mismatch Check

Is the user (or current plan) applying an approach from the wrong domain?

Current approach	Actual domain	Mismatch risk
Best practice playbook	Complex	High — will fail
Big analysis, single solution	Chaotic	High — too slow
Experiments / probing	Clear	Waste of time

🎯 Recommended Approach

Based on the domain:

Clear: Apply best practice [name it]. Consider automating.
Complicated: Engage expert analysis. Evaluate trade-offs between [option A] and [option B].
Complex: Design 2–3 safe-to-fail experiments. Define what "amplify" and "dampen" signals look like.
Chaotic: Act immediately on [specific stabilizing action]. Reassess domain once stable.

🔁 Domain Transitions to Watch

Is this domain shifting? (e.g., a complicated situation becoming complex due to new uncertainty)
What would cause the situation to move into chaos?
What's the path toward clear once this is resolved?

Practical Heuristics

If experts disagree → probably Complex, not Complicated
If it involves people and behavior at scale → probably Complex
If it's urgent and breaking → probably Chaotic; act first
If there's a known playbook → probably Clear or Complicated
If past solutions stopped working → domain may have shifted

The Most Common Mistake

Treating a Complex problem as Complicated: hiring a consultant to define "the right answer" and then executing a big plan — when the system is actually emergent and unpredictable. The result: the plan doesn't work, more consultants are hired, the plan gets bigger, it still doesn't work.

Fix: Run small experiments instead. Let patterns emerge. Amplify what works.

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