skills/asgard-ai-platform/skills/tw-stock-analysis

tw-stock-analysis

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Taiwan Stock Fundamental Analysis

Framework

IRON LAW: Valuation Is Relative — Compare to Peers and History

A P/E of 20 is cheap for a growth tech stock but expensive for a mature
utility. ALWAYS compare to: (1) industry peers, (2) the stock's own
historical range, and (3) the broader market (TAIEX average P/E ~14-18).
A single number in isolation is meaningless.

Key Metrics for Taiwan Stocks

Metric Formula What It Tells You Data Source
EPS Net Income / Shares Outstanding Profitability per share 公開資訊觀測站 (MOPS)
P/E Ratio Stock Price / EPS How much market pays per dollar of earnings Yahoo Finance TW, Goodinfo
P/B Ratio Stock Price / Book Value per Share Premium to net assets MOPS
Dividend Yield Annual Dividend / Stock Price Income return 公開資訊觀測站
Payout Ratio Dividends / Net Income Sustainability of dividends Calculated
ROE Net Income / Shareholders' Equity Return on equity MOPS
Debt-to-Equity Total Debt / Equity Financial leverage MOPS
Revenue Growth (Current Rev - Prior Rev) / Prior Rev Top-line momentum Monthly revenue reports

Taiwan-Specific Data Sources

Source What It Has URL
公開資訊觀測站 (MOPS) Financial statements, dividends, insider trading mops.twse.com.tw
台灣證券交易所 (TWSE) Stock prices, trading volume, indices www.twse.com.tw
Goodinfo Historical financials, dividend history, technical data goodinfo.tw
證交所月營收 Monthly revenue announcements (by the 10th) MOPS + news

Analysis Steps

Phase 1: Business Understanding

  • What does the company do? Which industry/sector?
  • Who are the main competitors?
  • What drives revenue? (products, segments, geographies)

Phase 2: Financial Health

  • Revenue trend (monthly data unique to Taiwan market — check 月營收)
  • Profitability: EPS trend, operating margin trend
  • Balance sheet: D/E ratio, current ratio, cash position
  • Cash flow: operating CF positive? Free cash flow trend?

Phase 3: Valuation

  • P/E vs peers, vs own 5-year range, vs TAIEX average
  • P/B vs peers (especially for asset-heavy industries)
  • Dividend yield vs peers and vs Taiwan 10-year bond yield (~1.5%)

Phase 4: Growth & Risk

  • Revenue growth rate vs industry
  • Capex plans (MOPS announcements)
  • Concentration risk (customer, product, geography)
  • Regulatory and geopolitical risks

Taiwan Market Specifics

Feature Detail
Monthly revenue disclosure Listed companies report monthly revenue by the 10th — unique to Taiwan, provides more timely data than quarterly reports
Dividend culture Taiwan investors heavily favor dividend stocks. High-yield stocks trade at a premium.
Ex-dividend price adjustment Taiwan stocks drop by the dividend amount on ex-date. This is normal, not a loss.
Day trading tax Securities transaction tax: 0.3% (0.15% for day trades). Factor into short-term trading costs.
Foreign investor influence 外資 (foreign institutional investors) buying/selling data is public and significantly moves stock prices. Monitor 三大法人 (three institutional investors) data.

Output Format

# Stock Analysis: {Company Name} ({Stock Code})

## Company Overview
- Industry: {sector}
- Market cap: NT${X}B
- Main business: {description}

## Financial Summary
| Metric | Current | 3-Year Avg | Peer Avg | Assessment |
|--------|---------|-----------|---------|-----------|
| EPS | NT${X} | NT${X} | NT${X} | Above/Below |
| P/E | {X}x | {X}x | {X}x | Cheap/Fair/Expensive |
| Dividend Yield | {%} | {%} | {%} | ... |
| ROE | {%} | {%} | {%} | ... |
| D/E | {X} | {X} | {X} | ... |

## Revenue Trend (Monthly)
| Month | Revenue (NT$M) | YoY Growth |
|-------|-------------|-----------|
| {month} | {amount} | {%} |

## Valuation Assessment
{Cheap / Fair / Expensive — with rationale comparing to peers and history}

## Key Risks
1. {risk}

## Investment Thesis
{Bull case vs bear case in 2-3 sentences each}

Gotchas

  • EPS can be distorted by one-time items: Check if EPS includes asset sales, legal settlements, or write-offs. Use "recurring EPS" (本業 EPS) for trend analysis.
  • Monthly revenue ≠ profitability: A company growing revenue 30% might have declining margins. Revenue growth without margin analysis is incomplete.
  • Dividend yield trap: A stock yielding 8% may be cheap for a reason (declining business, unsustainable payout). Check if the payout ratio > 80% — that may not be sustainable.
  • Taiwan stock prices adjust for dividends: Unlike US stocks, Taiwan stock prices drop by the cash dividend amount on ex-date. A NT$100 stock paying NT$5 opens at NT$95. This is not a loss — you received NT$5 in cash.
  • This is educational analysis, not investment advice: All investment carries risk. Past performance does not predict future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor.

References

  • For DCF valuation methodology, see the biz-dcf skill
  • For financial ratio deep-dive, see the biz-financial-ratios skill
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