Kalshi

Query Kalshi prediction markets. No API key needed for market data.

Triggers

• "kalshi", "kalshi markets", "kalshi odds"
• Can be combined with Polymarket for comparison

API Endpoints

Base URL: https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2

Get Events with Markets (Political/Economics)

curl -s 'https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?limit=20&status=open&with_nested_markets=true' | jq '.events[] | select(.category == "Politics" or .category == "Economics") | {title, category, markets: [.markets[]? | {title, yes_bid, yes_ask, volume}]}'

Get All Open Markets

curl -s 'https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?limit=20&status=open' | jq '.markets[] | {ticker, title, yes_bid, yes_ask, volume, open_interest}'

Filter by Category

Categories: Politics, Economics, Climate and Weather, Science and Technology, World, Sports

# Get events, filter by category
curl -s 'https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?limit=50&status=open' | jq '.events[] | select(.category == "Politics")'

Get Single Event

curl -s 'https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/{event_ticker}'

Response Fields

Field	Description
title	Market/event title
yes_bid	Best bid for Yes (cents, 0-100)
yes_ask	Best ask for Yes (cents, 0-100)
no_bid	Best bid for No (cents, 0-100)
no_ask	Best ask for No (cents, 0-100)
volume	Total contracts traded
open_interest	Open positions
category	Market category

Price Interpretation

• Prices are in cents (0-100)
• yes_bid: 65 means 65% implied probability
• Spread = yes_ask - yes_bid (tighter = more liquid)

Output Format

📈 {title}
   Yes: {yes_bid}¢-{yes_ask}¢ | No: {no_bid}¢-{no_ask}¢
   Volume: {volume} contracts

Comparison with Polymarket

When user asks for prediction market odds, check BOTH:

1. Polymarket: gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets
2. Kalshi: api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events

Report any price discrepancies - arbitrage opportunities exist when odds differ significantly.

Notes

• No API key required for reading market data
• Kalshi is US-regulated (CFTC) - more limited market selection
• Prices update in real-time
• Good for political and economic markets

Strategic Framework: Kalshi as Regulated Edge

1. The Regulatory Arbitrage

Kalshi is CFTC-regulated = different market dynamics than Polymarket:

Kalshi advantages:

• US-legal = institutional money can play (slower but bigger moves)
• More conservative pricing = opportunities when news breaks
• Limited market selection = deeper liquidity in what exists
• Settlement guarantees = no counterparty risk

Kalshi disadvantages:

• Slower to list new markets (regulatory approval)
• Smaller crypto selection (regulatory caution)
• Fewer "degen" markets = less inefficiency

2. Cross-Platform Arbitrage Strategy

Kalshi vs Polymarket:

• Same event, different odds = risk-free profit
• Kalshi often prices more conservatively (institutional caution)
• Polymarket reprices faster on news breaks

Execution:

1. Identify overlapping markets (politics, macro, some crypto)
2. Calculate implied probabilities on both
3. If spread > 5%, take opposite positions
4. Lock in guaranteed profit regardless of outcome

Example:

• Kalshi: "Fed cuts rates in March" = 65¢ Yes
• Polymarket: Same market = 58% Yes (buy No at 42¢)
• Arb: Buy Yes on Kalshi (65¢), Buy No on Polymarket (42¢)
• Total cost: $1.07 → Guaranteed $1.00 payout = -7% (bad)
• But if Kalshi Yes = 55¢, Polymarket No = 42¢ → Total $0.97 → +3% locked

3. Macro-Crypto Correlation Plays

Kalshi's strength is economic/political markets that correlate with crypto:

High-correlation Kalshi markets:

• Fed rate decisions → direct crypto impact
• CPI/inflation prints → risk asset correlation
• Government shutdown → uncertainty = crypto vol
• Bank stress → flight to BTC narrative

Trading framework:

1. Take Kalshi position on macro event
2. Size crypto spot/perp position accordingly
3. Kalshi acts as hedge or amplifier depending on direction

4. Regulatory Intelligence Markets

Kalshi excels at US regulatory outcomes:

Priority markets:

• SEC crypto enforcement actions
• CFTC rulings on derivatives
• Congressional crypto legislation
• Fed policy decisions

Why this matters:

• These directly move crypto markets
• Kalshi often has markets before Polymarket (US regulatory focus)
• Lower volume = edge opportunity before institutions pile in

5. Political Event Trading

Framework for political markets:

Avoid tribal bias:

• Left sources overestimate D outcomes
• Right sources overestimate R outcomes
• Cross-partisan agreement = actual signal

Crypto correlation mapping:

• Pro-crypto candidate wins → long crypto
• Regulatory hawk appointed → short crypto exposure
• Grid lock outcome → status quo, lower vol

User Interest Priority Categories

Tier 1 - Maximum Attention:

• Fed/Macro: Rate decisions, inflation prints, bank stress (crypto correlation)
• Crypto regulation: SEC/CFTC decisions, legislation outcomes
• AI regulation: AI policy, tech antitrust (affects AI investments)

Tier 2 - Active Monitoring:

• Political outcomes: When directly affecting crypto/tech policy
• Economic data: GDP, jobs (risk-on/off signals)
• Quantum/Tech milestones: Kalshi occasionally lists these

Tier 3 - Arbitrage Hunting:

• Any market that also exists on Polymarket
• Check daily for spread opportunities

Arbitrage Checklist

Before any Kalshi position:

1. ✓ Check if market exists on Polymarket
2. ✓ Calculate implied probability spread
3. ✓ If >5% spread, consider arb
4. ✓ Factor in fees and settlement timing
5. ✓ Check liquidity depth on both sides

Trusted Signal Sources for Kalshi Markets

• Fed: FedWatch tool, bond market pricing
• Economic: Bloomberg consensus, whisper numbers
• Political: Prediction market aggregators, cross-partisan analysts
• Crypto regulatory: Court dockets (PACER), SEC filings