Polymarket

Query prediction markets on-demand. No API key required.

Triggers

• "polymarket", "prediction markets", "what are the odds on", "betting odds", "pm"
• "show me markets about X", "polymarket trump", "crypto prediction markets"

API Endpoints

Trending Markets (by volume)

curl -s 'https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?limit=10&active=true&closed=false&order=volume24hr&ascending=false'

Search by Tag

curl -s 'https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?limit=10&active=true&closed=false&tag=politics'
curl -s 'https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?limit=10&active=true&closed=false&tag=crypto'
curl -s 'https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?limit=10&active=true&closed=false&tag=sports'

Filter Results (jq)

# Search for keyword in question
curl -s 'https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?limit=50&active=true&closed=false' | jq '.[] | select(.question | test("trump"; "i")) | {question, outcomePrices, volume24hr}'

# High volume only (>$10k)
curl -s 'https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?limit=50&active=true&closed=false' | jq '.[] | select(.volume24hr > 10000) | {question, outcomePrices, volume24hr}'

Response Fields

Field	Description
question	The market question
outcomePrices	JSON string of odds e.g. ["0.65", "0.35"] = 65% Yes
volume24hr	24-hour trading volume (USD)
volumeNum	Total lifetime volume
liquidity	Current liquidity
endDate	Resolution date
outcomes	Outcome names array
tags	Categories: politics, crypto, sports, etc.

Analysis Framework

Step 1: Get Trending Markets

Fetch top markets by volume - these have the most liquidity and interest.

Step 2: Cross-Reference News Sources

Query the media_sources table for bias-balanced coverage:

SUPABASE_URL="https://mlzbjnjkopuzoiobinpz.supabase.co"
SUPABASE_KEY="eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJzdXBhYmFzZSIsInJlZiI6Im1semJqbmprb3B1em9pb2JpbnB6Iiwicm9sZSI6InNlcnZpY2Vfcm9sZSIsImlhdCI6MTc2NzMzNzk2NCwiZXhwIjoyMDgyOTEzOTY0fQ.9XZOTu4e6igI52WefbOxAGIif4y4i_JJANg36wFXAL4"

# Get left-leaning sources
curl -s "$SUPABASE_URL/rest/v1/media_sources?bias=in.(left,lean_left)&select=name,url" -H "apikey: $SUPABASE_KEY"

# Get center sources
curl -s "$SUPABASE_URL/rest/v1/media_sources?bias=eq.center&select=name,url" -H "apikey: $SUPABASE_KEY"

# Get right-leaning sources
curl -s "$SUPABASE_URL/rest/v1/media_sources?bias=in.(right,lean_right)&select=name,url" -H "apikey: $SUPABASE_KEY"

Step 3: Identify Divergence

Look for:

• High signal: Left and right sources strongly disagree on likely outcome
• Medium signal: One side covering story heavily, other ignoring it
• Low signal: Breaking news not yet priced in

Step 4: Create Position Monitoring Cron

When Alec takes a position:

clawdbot cron add \
  --name "Polymarket: Trump 2024 position" \
  --cron "0 */4 * * *" \
  --tz "America/New_York" \
  --session isolated \
  --message "Check Polymarket position: Trump 2024 election. Current odds vs entry point. Any major news that could move the market? Alert if odds shift more than 5%." \
  --deliver \
  --channel telegram \
  --to "302137836"

Opportunity Signals

Signal	Meaning	Action
Red flag	Major disagreement, market hasn't moved	Strong opportunity
Yellow flag	Developing story, one-sided coverage	Monitor closely
Green flag	Consensus forming, odds adjusting	Late entry risk

Output Format

📊 {question}
   Yes: {yes_odds}% | No: {no_odds}%
   Vol: ${volume24hr} (24h) | Ends: {endDate}

Examples

User: "polymarket trump" → Search for markets with "trump" in question, show top 5 by volume

User: "what are prediction market odds on bitcoin" → Search tag=crypto or keyword "bitcoin", show current odds

User: "show me trending polymarket" → Fetch top 10 by volume24hr, list all

User: "any good polymarket opportunities?" → Look for high-volume markets with close odds (40-60%), flag interesting ones

Notes

• Odds are decimals: 0.65 = 65% chance
• No API key needed - free and unlimited
• Higher volume = more reliable odds
• Check endDate before discussing - some markets are long-dated

Strategic Framework: Polymarket as a Trading Tool

1. Crypto Hedging via Binary Options

Polymarket markets function as synthetic options for crypto exposure:

Direct Hedges:

• "BTC above $X by date Y" = call option equivalent
• "ETH ETF approved" = long ETH catalyst hedge
• "SEC sues [exchange]" = short crypto hedge
• "Gensler resigns" = long crypto catalyst

Example Strategy:

• Long BTC spot + buy "BTC below $50k" on Polymarket = downside protection
• Cost: premium paid for "Yes" shares
• Payoff: if BTC dumps, Polymarket position profits, offsetting spot loss

Correlation Plays:

• Fed rate cuts → risk-on → crypto up → position accordingly
• Trump wins → perceived crypto-friendly → long crypto catalyst
• Bank failures → flight to BTC narrative → hedge with "bank failure" markets

2. Information Asymmetry Edge

Polymarket bettors are less sophisticated than sportsbook sharps:

Why the edge exists:

• Lower volume = less efficient pricing
• Retail-heavy = emotional/tribal betting
• News lag = alpha window before markets reprice
• No professional market makers (yet)

Exploit patterns:

• Political markets skew based on which tribe is betting
• Crypto markets lag Twitter/on-chain signals
• Breaking news takes 15-60 min to fully price in
• Weekend/night = thinner books, more mispricing

3. News Correlation Alpha

High-signal news sources for Polymarket edge:

• Court filings (PACER) → regulatory outcomes
• On-chain whale moves → crypto price targets
• Insider Twitter accounts → political outcomes
• Earnings whispers → tech company markets

Execution:

1. Set up alerts for catalyst events
2. Check Polymarket odds BEFORE news breaks
3. Take position if odds lag the signal
4. Exit when market reprices (usually 1-4 hours)

4. Arbitrage Opportunities

Cross-platform (Polymarket vs Kalshi):

• Same event, different odds = free money
• Kalshi is more regulated, sometimes slower to update
• Check both before any position

Intra-Polymarket:

• Related markets that should sum to 100% but don't
• Multi-outcome markets with mispriced tails
• Conditional markets where P(A|B) × P(B) ≠ market price

5. Meta-Markets (High Alpha)

Markets about prediction markets themselves:

• "Polymarket volume exceeds $X" → self-fulfilling if you're trading there
• "Kalshi approved for election betting" → affects entire space
• Regulatory outcomes for prediction markets = outsized returns

User Interest Priority Categories

Tier 1 - Maximum Attention:

• Crypto regulatory: SEC decisions, Gensler moves, ETF outcomes
• AI policy: AI regulation, Anthropic/OpenAI outcomes, model releases
• Prediction market meta: Markets about Polymarket/Kalshi themselves
• Autonomous AI: AI trading competitions, agent benchmarks (Black Mirror stuff)

Tier 2 - Active Monitoring:

• Quantum computing: Milestone achievements, company timelines
• Tech earnings: When they correlate with crypto (Nvidia, Coinbase, etc.)
• Political catalysts: Only when directly affecting crypto/tech

Tier 3 - Opportunistic:

• Macro events: Fed decisions, inflation prints (crypto correlation)
• Geopolitical: Only when affecting risk-on/risk-off flows

Trusted Signal Sources

Monitor these for Polymarket alpha:

• Crypto: @cobie, @inversebrah, @0xBreadguy, @DegenSpartan, @zachxbt
• Political: Cross-partisan agreement is the signal (rare but high-value)
• AI/Tech: @kaboraDeFi research papers, Anthropic/OpenAI blogs
• On-chain: Whale alerts, MEV activity, liquidation cascades

Output Priority

When presenting analysis:

1. Lead with hedging opportunities for existing crypto positions
2. Flag news correlation plays with time sensitivity
3. Highlight arbitrage vs Kalshi
4. Show edge calculations (expected value, not just odds)

A 3% edge in a crypto-correlated market > 10% edge in random sports market