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Opportunity Discoverer

Traffic-First approach to finding next growth direction for existing product.

Core Philosophy

Anti-pattern: Idea → Surveys → Product → "where's traffic?" Correct: Traffic → Niche → MVP → Launch under existing demand

The 90% Developer Bug

Most fail because they:

Invent idea with no analogs
Ask 5 people "would you pay?" (they say yes for a hot dog)
Build product with round sum
Launch with "now let's set up traffic"
Discover: no traffic exists, never did

No marketer will build funnel for what cold traffic doesn't buy.

Traffic-First Principles

#	Principle	Anti-pattern
1	Traffic exists BEFORE product	Building then searching for traffic
2	No surveys — measure real search demand	Asking "would you buy?"
3	Existing demand — launch under what people search	Creating new category
4	One channel, one idea — no spreading	Testing 5 channels at once
5	KILL early — fail fast, don't waste time	Scoring all ideas equally

Supporting Methodology

Marc Andreessen (pmarca):

"Validate market at practical level — go get paying customers to demonstrate market exists."

Sam Altman (YC):

"Who desperately needs the product? Best answer is going after large part of small market." "Test idea by launching or trying to sell — get letter of intent before code."

Purpose & Scope

Discover growth direction BEFORE Epic creation
Filter ideas through sequential KILL funnel
Output: one recommended idea + one traffic channel
Position: before ln-210 (Epic Coordinator)

When to Use

Use this skill when:

Product exists, seeking next growth direction
Have 3-10 potential ideas/niches
Want to validate opportunity before committing
Need to choose ONE channel to focus on

Do NOT use when:

No product context (greenfield startup)
Already have validated direction (skip to ln-210)
Prioritizing existing Stories (use ln-230)

Input Parameters

Parameter	Required	Description	Default
ideas	No	Comma-separated list	-
context	No	Product description for generation	-
strict	No	Strict KILL thresholds	true

Input modes:

ideas="idea1, idea2, idea3" — evaluate list
context="SaaS for X" — generate ideas from product
Both — generate + add user ideas

KILL Funnel Pipeline

Ideas pass through 6 sequential filters. Fail any filter = KILL immediately.

Idea → [Traffic?] → [Demand?] → [Competition?] → [Revenue?] → [Interest?] → [MVP?] → SURVIVOR
              ↓           ↓            ↓             ↓            ↓           ↓
            KILL        KILL         KILL          KILL         KILL        KILL

Filter 1: Traffic Channel

Question: Where do people look for this solution?

Research:

WebSearch: "[idea] how people find solutions"
WebSearch: "[idea] customer acquisition channels"

Valid channels:

Channel	Signal	Best for
Search/SEO	People Google "[problem] solution"	Info products, tools
YouTube	Tutorial searches exist	Education, how-to
Marketplaces	Category exists (ProductHunt, AppStore)	Apps, plugins
Communities	Active subreddits, forums	Niche products
Paid Ads	Competitors running ads	Proven demand
Outbound	Clear ICP, reachable	B2B high-ticket

KILL if: No identifiable channel where people actively look for solution.

Output: Channel name + rationale

Filter 2: Existing Demand

Question: Are people already searching for this?

Research:

WebSearch: "[idea] search volume {current_year}"
WebSearch: "[idea] Google Trends"
WebSearch: "[problem] forum discussions reddit"

Demand signals:

Signal	Source	Interpretation
Search volume	Google Keyword Planner, Ahrefs	Direct demand
Trend direction	Google Trends	Growing/declining
Forum activity	Reddit, HackerNews, StackOverflow	Pain level
Competitor traffic	SimilarWeb, SEMrush	Market size

KILL thresholds:

Volume	Verdict
>10K/month	Strong demand
1K-10K/month	Viable niche
<1K/month	KILL — insufficient demand

Output: Monthly volume estimate + trend

Filter 3: Competition (Blue/Red Ocean)

Question: Can we enter this market?

Research:

WebSearch: "[idea] competitors {current_year}"
WebSearch: "[idea] alternatives comparison"

Classification:

Competitors	Index	Ocean	Verdict
0	1	Blue	Opportunity (validate demand exists)
1-2	2	Emerging	Best entry point
3-5	3	Growing	Differentiation needed
6-10	4	Mature	Hard but possible
>10	5	Red	KILL — commoditized

KILL if: Index 5 (Red Ocean) — too many competitors, race to bottom.

Output: Competitor count + Ocean type

Filter 4: Revenue Potential

Question: Will people pay enough?

Research:

WebSearch: "[idea] pricing SaaS"
WebSearch: "[competitor] pricing plans"
WebSearch: "[idea] willingness to pay"

Revenue indicators:

ARPU	Market type	Viability
>$100/user/mo	Enterprise	High margin
$50-100	Professional	Good
$20-50	Prosumer	Viable
$5-20	Consumer	Volume needed
<$5	Ad-supported	KILL

KILL if: <$20/user — not worth the effort for small team.

Output: Estimated $/user + pricing model

Filter 5: Personal Interest

Question: Will you enjoy building this?

Method: AskUserQuestion — rate 1-5

Rate your interest in building [idea]:
1 = Meh, would do for money only
2 = Low interest
3 = Neutral
4 = Interested
5 = Excited, would build for free

Why this matters:

Low interest = burnout in 3 months
High interest = sustained motivation through hard times
You'll spend 2+ years on this

KILL if: Score 1-2 — you'll quit before PMF.

Output: Score 1-5

Filter 6: MVP-ability

Question: Can you launch in 4 weeks?

Assessment:

Factor	Question	Red flag
Tech	Existing skills or need to learn?	New stack
Dependencies	External APIs, partners needed?	Waiting on others
Content	Significant content creation?	Months of writing
Regulations	Legal/compliance requirements?	Licenses, approvals
Team	Solo or need to hire?	Can't start alone

Time estimates:

Weeks	Complexity	Verdict
1-2	Solo, existing skills	Best
2-4	Minor learning curve	Good
4-8	Some new tech	Acceptable
>8	Significant infrastructure	KILL

KILL if: >8 weeks to MVP — too slow to validate.

Output: Weeks estimate + blockers

Workflow

Phase 1: Input Processing (2 min)

Parse input:
- If ideas: split comma-separated list
- If context: generate 5-7 ideas via WebSearch
- If both: combine
Validate count:
- Minimum: 3 ideas
- Maximum: 10 ideas
Create output directory:
```
mkdir -p docs/reference/research/
```

Output: Idea queue (3-10 items)

Phase 2: KILL Funnel (per idea)

Process each idea sequentially through all 6 filters:

FOR each idea:
    Filter 1: Traffic Channel
        IF no channel → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea

    Filter 2: Existing Demand
        IF <1K/month → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea

    Filter 3: Competition
        IF Index 5 → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea

    Filter 4: Revenue
        IF <$20/user → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea

    Filter 5: Interest
        AskUserQuestion for rating
        IF score 1-2 → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea

    Filter 6: MVP-ability
        IF >8 weeks → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea

    → SURVIVOR: add to survivors list

Token efficiency:

Process ONE idea at a time
KILL early = less research needed
Clear context after each idea

Phase 3: Rank Survivors (2 min)

If survivors exist:

Calculate composite score:

Score = Demand_score + (6 - Competition_index) + Revenue_score + Interest + MVP_score

Sort by score descending
Select TOP recommendation

If no survivors:

Report: "All ideas killed. Rethink direction."
Show KILL log for learning

Phase 4: Output (2 min)

Generate: docs/reference/research/[YYYY-MM-DD]-discovery.md

Structure:

# Opportunity Discovery: [Date]

## Summary
- Ideas analyzed: X
- Survivors: Y
- Killed: Z

## TOP RECOMMENDATION

**Idea:** [Name]
**Channel:** [Primary channel]
**Why:** [2-3 sentence rationale]

### Key metrics:
- Demand: [volume]/month
- Competition: [Index] [Ocean type]
- Revenue: $[X]/user
- MVP: [X] weeks

## Survivors Table

| Idea | Channel | Demand | Competition | Revenue | Interest | MVP | Score |
|------|---------|--------|-------------|---------|----------|-----|-------|
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |

## KILL Log

| Idea | Killed at | Reason |
|------|-----------|--------|
| ... | ... | ... |

## Next Steps
1. Create Epic with ln-210 for top recommendation
2. Focus on [channel] as primary acquisition
3. Target MVP in [X] weeks

Time-Box

Ideas	Estimated time
3	15-20 min
5	25-35 min
10	50-70 min

Note: KILL funnel is faster than full scoring — bad ideas die early.

Integration

Position in workflow:

Product exists
     ↓
ln-201 (Opportunity Discovery) ← THIS SKILL
     ↓
ln-210 (Epic Coordinator)
     ↓
ln-220 (Story Coordinator)

Dependencies:

WebSearch (all filters except Interest)
AskUserQuestion (Interest filter)
Write, Bash (output)

Critical Rules

Traffic first — no traffic channel = no analysis
KILL immediately — don't score dead ideas
One recommendation — avoid paralysis
No surveys — real search data only
Interest matters — you'll quit if bored
MVP speed — slow launch = slow learning

Example Usage

With ideas:

ln-201-opportunity-discoverer ideas="AI writing tool, code review bot, translation API"

With context:

ln-201-opportunity-discoverer context="B2B developer tools SaaS"

Example output:

# Opportunity Discovery: 2026-01-29

## TOP RECOMMENDATION

**Idea:** Code review bot
**Channel:** SEO (developers search "code review tool")
**Why:** Growing demand (15K/mo), emerging market (3 competitors),
$50/user pricing proven, can MVP in 3 weeks with existing skills.

## KILL Log

| Idea | Killed at | Reason |
|------|-----------|--------|
| AI writing | Competition | Red Ocean (25+ competitors) |
| Translation API | Revenue | Commoditized, <$10/user |

Reference Files

File	Purpose
filter_criteria.md	KILL thresholds for all filters
channel_analysis.md	Traffic channel identification
discovery_template.md	Output markdown template

MANDATORY READ: shared/references/research_tool_fallback.md

Version: 2.0.0 Last Updated: 2026-01-29