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Opportunity Discoverer

Type: L3 Worker Category: 2XX Planning

Traffic-First approach to finding next growth direction for existing product.

Core Philosophy

Anti-pattern: Idea → Surveys → Product → "where's traffic?" Correct: Traffic → Niche → MVP → Launch under existing demand

The 90% Developer Bug

Most fail because they:

Invent idea with no analogs
Ask 5 people "would you pay?" (they say yes for a hot dog)
Build product with round sum
Launch with "now let's set up traffic"
Discover: no traffic exists, never did

No marketer will build funnel for what cold traffic doesn't buy.

Traffic-First Principles

#	Principle	Anti-pattern
1	Traffic exists BEFORE product	Building then searching for traffic
2	No surveys — measure real search demand	Asking "would you buy?"
3	Existing demand — launch under what people search	Creating new category
4	One channel, one idea — no spreading	Testing 5 channels at once
5	KILL early — fail fast, don't waste time	Scoring all ideas equally

Supporting Methodology

Marc Andreessen (pmarca):

"Validate market at practical level — go get paying customers to demonstrate market exists."

Sam Altman (YC):

"Who desperately needs the product? Best answer is going after large part of small market." "Test idea by launching or trying to sell — get letter of intent before code."

Purpose & Scope

Discover growth direction BEFORE Epic creation
Filter ideas through evidence-first KILL funnel
Output: one recommended idea + one traffic channel
Position: before ln-210 (Epic Coordinator)

Runtime Contract

MANDATORY READ: Load shared/references/planning_worker_runtime_contract.md, shared/references/coordinator_summary_contract.md

Runtime family: planning-worker-runtime

Identifier:

discovery work item identifier

Phases:

PHASE_0_CONFIG
PHASE_1_INPUT_PROCESSING
PHASE_2_KILL_FUNNEL
PHASE_3_RANK_SURVIVORS
PHASE_4_WRITE_DISCOVERY_REPORT
PHASE_5_WRITE_SUMMARY
PHASE_6_SELF_CHECK

Summary contract:

summary_kind=opportunity-discovery-worker
standalone mode may return the summary without artifact persistence
managed mode writes the same JSON to summaryArtifactPath
default managed artifact path pattern: .hex-skills/runtime-artifacts/runs/{parent_run_id}/opportunity-discovery-worker/ln-201--{identifier}.json

When to Use

Use this skill when:

Product exists, seeking next growth direction
Have 3-10 potential ideas/niches
Want to validate opportunity before committing
Need to choose ONE channel to focus on

Do NOT use when:

No product context (greenfield startup)
Already have validated direction (skip to ln-210)
Prioritizing existing Stories (use ln-230)

Input Parameters

Parameter	Required	Description	Default
ideas	No	Comma-separated list	-
context	No	Product description for generation	-
strict	No	Strict KILL thresholds	true

Input modes:

ideas="idea1, idea2, idea3" — evaluate list
context="SaaS for X" — generate ideas from product
Both — generate + add user ideas

KILL Funnel Pipeline

Ideas do not go through 4 separate research-heavy passes anymore. Each idea gets one bundled evidence pass first.

Idea → [Evidence bundle: traffic + demand + competition + revenue]
          ↓
      [Hard kill matrix]
          ↓
     [Interest gate]
          ↓
      [MVP gate]
          ↓
       SURVIVOR

Evidence Bundle (single research pass)

Question: Is there enough external evidence to justify deeper evaluation?

Research bundle:

WebSearch: "[idea] how people find solutions"
WebSearch: "[idea] search volume {current_year}"
WebSearch: "[idea] competitors {current_year}"
WebSearch: "[idea] pricing SaaS"

Extract four signals in one pass:

Traffic channel: Where do people actively look for this solution?
Demand: Search volume, trend direction, or strong community pain signal
Competition: Competitor count and ocean type
Revenue: Plausible price band and willingness to pay pattern

Traffic channel examples:

Channel	Signal	Best for
Search/SEO	People Google "[problem] solution"	Info products, tools
YouTube	Tutorial searches exist	Education, how-to
Marketplaces	Category exists (ProductHunt, AppStore)	Apps, plugins
Communities	Active subreddits, forums	Niche products
Paid Ads	Competitors running ads	Proven demand
Outbound	Clear ICP, reachable	B2B high-ticket

Demand thresholds:

Volume	Verdict
>10K/month	Strong demand
1K-10K/month	Viable niche
<1K/month	Weak unless compensated by very strong niche signal

Competition thresholds:

Competitors	Index	Ocean	Verdict
0	1	Blue	Opportunity if demand is real
1-2	2	Emerging	Best entry point
3-5	3	Growing	Differentiation needed
6-10	4	Mature	Hard but possible
>10	5	Red	Often kill-worthy

Revenue thresholds:

ARPU	Market type	Viability
>$100/user/mo	Enterprise	High margin
$50-100	Professional	Good
$20-50	Prosumer	Viable
$5-20	Consumer	Volume needed
<$5	Ad-supported	Usually not worth it

Hard Kill Matrix

Kill immediately when any hard-stop condition is true:

no identifiable traffic channel
demand clearly below viable threshold with no compensating niche signal
competition index = 5 and no clear wedge
expected revenue below $20/user for a small-team business

Record the kill reason and stop analysis for that idea.

Personal Interest

Question: Will you enjoy building this?

Method: AskUserQuestion — rate 1-5

Rate your interest in building [idea]:
1 = Meh, would do for money only
2 = Low interest
3 = Neutral
4 = Interested
5 = Excited, would build for free

Why this matters:

Low interest = burnout in 3 months
High interest = sustained motivation through hard times
You'll spend 2+ years on this

When to ask: Only for ideas that survive the external evidence bundle.

KILL if: Score 1-2 — you'll quit before PMF.

Output: Score 1-5

MVP-ability

Question: Can you launch in 4 weeks?

Assessment:

Factor	Question	Red flag
Tech	Existing skills or need to learn?	New stack
Dependencies	External APIs, partners needed?	Waiting on others
Content	Significant content creation?	Months of writing
Regulations	Legal/compliance requirements?	Licenses, approvals
Team	Solo or need to hire?	Can't start alone

Time estimates:

Weeks	Complexity	Verdict
1-2	Solo, existing skills	Best
2-4	Minor learning curve	Good
4-8	Some new tech	Acceptable
>8	Significant infrastructure	KILL

When to assess: Only for ideas that survive external evidence + interest gate.

KILL if: >8 weeks to MVP — too slow to validate.

Output: Weeks estimate + blockers

Workflow

Phase 1: Input Processing (2 min)

Parse input:
- If ideas: split comma-separated list
- If context: generate 5-7 ideas via WebSearch
- If both: combine
Validate count:
- Minimum: 3 ideas
- Maximum: 10 ideas
Create output directory:
```
mkdir -p docs/reference/research/
```

Output: Idea queue (3-10 items) and checkpoint for PHASE_1_INPUT_PROCESSING

Phase 2: KILL Funnel (per idea)

Process each idea through one bundled evidence pass, then the personal filters only for survivors:

FOR each idea:
    Build evidence bundle:
        traffic + demand + competition + revenue

    Apply hard kill matrix
        IF failed → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea

    Ask Interest
        IF score 1-2 → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea

    Assess MVP-ability
        IF >8 weeks → KILL, log reason, NEXT idea

    → SURVIVOR: add to survivors list

Token efficiency:

Process ONE idea at a time
One research bundle per idea instead of four separate research phases
KILL early = no interest prompt, no MVP assessment
Clear context after each idea

Phase 3: Rank Survivors (2 min)

If survivors exist:

Calculate composite score:

Score = Demand_score + (6 - Competition_index) + Revenue_score + Interest + MVP_score

Sort by score descending
Select TOP recommendation

If no survivors:

Report: "All ideas killed. Rethink direction."
Show KILL log for learning

Phase 4: Output (2 min)

Generate: docs/reference/research/[YYYY-MM-DD]-discovery.md

Also emit structured runtime summary:

schema_version
summary_kind=opportunity-discovery-worker
run_id
identifier
producer_skill=ln-201
produced_at
payload with input_mode, ideas_analyzed, generated_ideas, survivors_count, killed_count, top_recommendation, report_path, warnings

Structure:

# Opportunity Discovery: [Date]

## Summary
- Ideas analyzed: X
- Survivors: Y
- Killed: Z

## TOP RECOMMENDATION

**Idea:** [Name]
**Channel:** [Primary channel]
**Why:** [2-3 sentence rationale]

### Key metrics:
- Demand: [volume]/month
- Competition: [Index] [Ocean type]
- Revenue: $[X]/user
- MVP: [X] weeks

## Survivors Table

| Idea | Channel | Demand | Competition | Revenue | Interest | MVP | Score |
|------|---------|--------|-------------|---------|----------|-----|-------|
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |

## KILL Log

| Idea | Killed at | Reason |
|------|-----------|--------|
| ... | ... | ... |

## Next Steps
1. Create Epic with ln-210 for top recommendation
2. Focus on [channel] as primary acquisition
3. Target MVP in [X] weeks

Time-Box

Ideas	Estimated time
3	15-20 min
5	25-35 min
10	50-70 min

Note: KILL funnel is faster than full scoring — bad ideas die early.

Integration

Position in workflow:

Product exists
     ↓
ln-201 (Opportunity Discovery) ← THIS SKILL
     ↓
ln-210 (Epic Coordinator)
     ↓
ln-220 (Story Coordinator)

Dependencies:

WebSearch (all filters except Interest)
AskUserQuestion (Interest filter)
Write, Bash (output)

Critical Rules

Traffic first — no traffic channel = no analysis
Bundle evidence once — do not run separate research-heavy phases if one pass can answer traffic, demand, competition, and revenue
KILL immediately — don't score dead ideas
One recommendation — avoid paralysis
No surveys — real search data only
Interest matters — ask only for externally viable ideas
MVP speed — slow launch = slow learning

Example Usage

With ideas:

ln-201-opportunity-discoverer ideas="AI writing tool, code review bot, translation API"

With context:

ln-201-opportunity-discoverer context="B2B developer tools SaaS"

Example output:

# Opportunity Discovery: 2026-01-29

## TOP RECOMMENDATION

**Idea:** Code review bot
**Channel:** SEO (developers search "code review tool")
**Why:** Growing demand (15K/mo), emerging market (3 competitors),
$50/user pricing proven, can MVP in 3 weeks with existing skills.

## KILL Log

| Idea | Killed at | Reason |
|------|-----------|--------|
| AI writing | Competition | Red Ocean (25+ competitors) |
| Translation API | Revenue | Commoditized, <$10/user |

Definition of Done

Ideas brainstormed from product context and market signals
Evidence bundle collected for each idea before kill decisions
Hard kill matrix applied before interest and MVP checks
Survivors scored and ranked
Discovery document generated at docs/reference/research/[YYYY-MM-DD]-discovery.md
TOP RECOMMENDATION identified with channel + rationale
KILL Log documents all eliminated ideas with reasons
Structured opportunity-discovery-worker summary returned
Summary artifact written when summaryArtifactPath is provided

Reference Files

File	Purpose
filter_criteria.md	KILL thresholds for all filters
channel_analysis.md	Traffic channel identification
discovery_template.md	Output markdown template

MANDATORY READ: Load shared/references/research_tool_fallback.md

Version: 2.0.0 Last Updated: 2026-01-29