mlb-closer-tracker
MLB Closer Tracker
Table of Contents
Example
Scenario: User asks "who should I stash — any good handcuff closers on waivers?" in mid-April. Three teams of interest have unsettled ninth innings.
Inputs gathered (web search — RotoBaller primary, Closer Monkey secondary, Athlon Closer Confidential):
| Team | Current 9th | Next in line | Third option | Situation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Emmanuel Clase | Cade Smith | Hunter Gaddis | Clase firmly locked — elite K/9 and walk rate |
| TEX | Chris Martin | Robert Garcia | Hoby Milner | Committee language from manager; Martin 39 years old |
| DET | Jason Foley | Tommy Kahnle | Beau Brieske | Foley has two blown saves in a week; velo down 1.2 mph |
Signal emission (per RP):
| Pitcher | save_role_certainty | Owned in league? | Rec action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Clase | 95 | Yes (by user) | HOLD |
| Cade Smith | 35 | No | ADD on spec, BID $2 |
| Chris Martin | 55 | Yes (opponent) | IGNORE |
| Robert Garcia | 45 | No | ADD, BID $6 — true committee, high handcuff value |
| Jason Foley | 40 | Yes (opponent) | IGNORE (hold only if we owned him) |
| Tommy Kahnle | 50 | No | ADD, BID $8 — velo trend + recent Foley blowups = highest speculation value |
Output signal file (signals/2026-04-17-closer.md):
---
type: closer
date: 2026-04-17
emitted_by: mlb-closer-tracker
confidence: 0.78
source_urls:
- https://www.rotoballer.com/mlb-saves-closers-depth-charts/226767
- https://closermonkey.com
- https://www.athlonsports.com/fantasy/closer-confidential
---
Punt-SV caveat surfaced: "If all three speculation adds fail, remember SV is our most punt-worthy cat. A plan exists in mlb-category-strategist output to concede SV and redirect innings to K/QS — do not chase saves past $10 FAAB on any single handcuff."
Handoff: mlb-waiver-analyst reads the signal and sizes FAAB bids on Kahnle, Garcia, and Smith. mlb-category-strategist reads the same signal to decide whether to push or punt SV this week.
Workflow
Copy this checklist and track progress:
Closer Tracker Progress:
- [ ] Step 1: Pull RotoBaller closer depth chart (all 30 teams)
- [ ] Step 2: Cross-reference Closer Monkey and Athlon Closer Confidential
- [ ] Step 3: Score save_role_certainty for the top 3 RPs per team
- [ ] Step 4: Flag committee / DFA-risk situations
- [ ] Step 5: Identify speculation-worthy handcuffs (rostered vs available)
- [ ] Step 6: Emit signal file and hand to waiver-analyst and category-strategist
Step 1: Pull the RotoBaller closer depth chart
Web-search site:rotoballer.com closer depth chart 2026 or hit the URL directly. This is the primary source for all 30 teams. Record each team's top 3 relievers with the role tag RotoBaller assigns (Closer / Next Man Up / Committee / Setup).
See resources/methodology.md for the source hierarchy and how to handle stale pages.
- All 30 teams covered (no team skipped even if role is stable)
- Top 3 RPs recorded per team
- RotoBaller role label captured verbatim
Step 2: Cross-reference secondary sources
Closer Monkey and Athlon's "Closer Confidential" often lead RotoBaller by 24-48 hours on role changes, especially early season. If two sources disagree, that disagreement itself lowers save_role_certainty (volatility penalty).
See resources/methodology.md for tie-break rules.
- Closer Monkey checked for the top 8-10 volatile situations
- Athlon Closer Confidential grade captured (if April / early-season)
- Any disagreements logged as volatility flags
Step 3: Score save_role_certainty
Use the scoring rubric in resources/methodology.md. The five inputs are: role label, recent blown saves, velocity trend, manager public comments, contract/age status. Output 0-100.
- Each top-3 RP scored
- Committee situations: no RP scores above 60
- Locked closers score 85-100
- DFA / demotion risk scores below 30
Step 4: Flag committee and DFA-risk situations
A committee is worth flagging even when we own the current "closer" — volatility means save_role_certainty is low regardless of who holds the ninth inning right now. DFA risk applies when an RP has lost the role AND is burning option years or is on a non-guaranteed deal.
- Committee flag on any team where top-2 scores are within 15 points
- DFA-risk flag on any ex-closer with role_certainty < 25
Step 5: Identify speculation targets
A speculation target = handcuff (next-in-line) with save_role_certainty in the 30-60 range whose current closer has any of: recent blown saves (2+ in 10 days), velocity loss (>1 mph), negative manager quote, age/injury flag.
See resources/template.md for the output format.
- Each target is cross-referenced against Yahoo availability
- Targets ranked by expected save share × availability
- No speculation bid > $10 FAAB without category-strategist concurrence (SV is the most punt-worthy cat)
Step 6: Emit signal file
Write signals/YYYY-MM-DD-closer.md with one save_role_certainty entry per top-3 RP per team (up to 90 entries). Call mlb-signal-emitter to validate. See resources/template.md for the full output structure.
- Frontmatter complete: type, date, emitted_by, confidence, source_urls
- Every RP has
save_role_certaintyin valid 0-100 range - Committee and DFA flags included
- Handcuff recommendations ranked
Validate using resources/evaluators/rubric_mlb_closer_tracker.json. Minimum standard: average score 3.5 or above.
Common Patterns
Pattern 1: Locked Elite Closer (Clase, Duran, Iglesias tier)
save_role_certainty: 85-100 for incumbent, 15-25 for handcuff- Handcuff has low speculation value unless incumbent is injured
- Action: HOLD if owned; no spec bid on handcuff
Pattern 2: True Committee (manager public quote: "we'll use matchups")
save_role_certainty: 40-60 for top 2-3 arms, top-2 within 15 points- Handcuff value is HIGH — both arms can vulture saves
- Action: If no cheap closer owned, ADD the platoon handcuff (opposite-handed reliever)
Pattern 3: Veteran Closer On Thin Ice (age 35+, declining velo)
save_role_certainty: 55-75 for incumbent, 40-55 for heir- Incumbent could be removed mid-April on any rough stretch
- Action: Stash the heir — this is the highest EV speculation profile
Pattern 4: DFA-Risk Ex-Closer
save_role_certainty: < 25- Role already lost; roster spot at risk if he can't hold setup
- Action: DROP if owned; never ADD
Guardrails
-
Cover all 30 teams every run. Even locked situations need a score so downstream agents can reason about trade targets. A missing team is worse than a low-confidence score.
-
Web-search every time. Closer roles change overnight. A 24-hour-old RotoBaller snapshot is stale. Always pull fresh on the day you emit the signal.
-
Committees penalize even the current closer. If three sources call a situation a committee, the named closer does not get an 85 score — they get a 55 at most. Volatility = low certainty, regardless of who just got the last save.
-
Never recommend a FAAB bid above $10 on a single handcuff without category-strategist concurrence. SV is this league's most punt-worthy pitcher category. Over-spending on speculative saves drains FAAB that could land a two-start SP or a breakout hitter. The waiver-analyst enforces this ceiling.
-
Velocity is the leading indicator. A 1+ mph drop on a closer's fastball, sustained across 3+ outings, predicts role loss better than any single blown save. Weight velocity trend heavily in the scoring rubric.
-
Manager quotes are data, not noise. "He's our guy" is a 70-certainty statement. "We'll see how it plays out" is a 50. Silence after a blown save is a 40. Quote-mine the beat writer coverage (Athletic, MLB.com team pages) during volatile weeks.
-
Platoon handcuffs matter. If the incumbent closer is RHP and has poor splits vs LHB, the LHP setup man is a better speculation target than the RHP setup man — even if RotoBaller lists the RHP higher. Check the actual platoon usage pattern.
-
Handcuffs are dropped first on a healthy week. A speculation add that does not vulture a save within 10 days gets dropped for the next wave. Do not fall in love with stashes — rotate.
Quick Reference
Key formula (save_role_certainty):
save_role_certainty = 20 x role_label_score (0-5 scale)
+ 20 x recent_performance (0-5 scale: blown saves, ERA last 10 days)
+ 20 x velocity_trend (0-5 scale: delta from baseline)
+ 20 x manager_signal (0-5 scale: public quotes)
+ 20 x contract_age_security (0-5 scale)
All components 0-5, weighted equally, rescaled to 0-100.
Role label to score mapping (RotoBaller):
| RotoBaller label | role_label_score (0-5) |
|---|---|
| Closer (locked) | 5 |
| Closer (soft hold) | 4 |
| Committee — primary | 3 |
| Committee — secondary | 2 |
| Setup / Next Man Up | 2 |
| Middle relief | 1 |
| DFA-risk / demoted | 0 |
Handcuff speculation tiers:
| Tier | save_role_certainty (current closer) | Handcuff action |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Panic closer | < 50 | ADD handcuff — BID $5-10 |
| 2. Wobbly closer | 50-70 | ADD handcuff — BID $2-5 |
| 3. Stable closer | 70-85 | ADD handcuff only if cheap ($0-1) |
| 4. Elite closer | > 85 | IGNORE handcuff unless injury |
Punt-SV trigger: If 4+ of your 5 RP slots would need to be speculation closers to compete in SV this week, punt SV instead. Hand off to mlb-category-strategist with a cat_punt_score boost request.
Key resources:
- resources/template.md: Per-team depth chart output format, speculation target table, full signal file template
- resources/methodology.md: Source hierarchy, scoring rubric, committee detection, punt-SV decision logic
- resources/evaluators/rubric_mlb_closer_tracker.json: 8-criterion quality rubric
Inputs required:
- RotoBaller closer depth charts (all 30 teams)
- Closer Monkey recent updates (volatile situations)
- Athlon Closer Confidential grades (early season)
- Yahoo league availability (which handcuffs are free agents)
- Recent game logs for top-3 RPs per team (blown saves, velocity)
Outputs produced:
- Per-RP
save_role_certainty(0-100), up to ~90 entries - Per-team depth chart with role labels and volatility flags
- Ranked list of speculation-worthy handcuffs with recommended FAAB bid bands
- Punt-SV recommendation flag (if triggered)