price-target-consensus
Price Target Consensus
Retrieve consensus price target metrics including average, median, high, and low targets using the Octagon MCP server.
Prerequisites
Ensure Octagon MCP is configured in your AI agent (Cursor, Claude Desktop, Windsurf, etc.). See references/mcp-setup.md for installation instructions.
Workflow
1. Identify the Stock
Determine the ticker symbol for the company you want to analyze (e.g., AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL).
2. Execute Query via Octagon MCP
Use the octagon-agent tool with a natural language prompt:
Retrieve consensus price targets for the stock symbol <TICKER>.
MCP Call Format:
{
"server": "octagon-mcp",
"toolName": "octagon-agent",
"arguments": {
"prompt": "Retrieve consensus price targets for the stock symbol AAPL."
}
}
3. Expected Output
The agent returns consensus price target data:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Consensus Target | $303.11 |
| Median Target | $315.00 |
| Target High | $350.00 |
| Target Low | $220.00 |
Data Sources: octagon-stock-data-agent
4. Interpret Results
See references/interpreting-results.md for guidance on:
- Understanding consensus vs. median
- Analyzing the target range
- Calculating upside/downside
- Evaluating analyst agreement
Example Queries
Basic Query:
Retrieve consensus price targets for the stock symbol AAPL.
With Price Context:
What is the consensus price target for TSLA and how does it compare to current price?
Range Focus:
What are the highest and lowest analyst price targets for NVDA?
Comparison:
Compare consensus price targets for AAPL, MSFT, and GOOGL.
Upside Analysis:
What upside does the consensus target imply for AMZN?
Understanding the Metrics
Consensus Target
| Aspect | Description |
|---|---|
| Definition | Average of all analyst targets |
| Calculation | Sum of targets / Number of analysts |
| Use | General market expectation |
| Limitation | Skewed by outliers |
Median Target
| Aspect | Description |
|---|---|
| Definition | Middle value of all targets |
| Calculation | 50th percentile |
| Use | Central tendency, outlier-resistant |
| Advantage | Less affected by extremes |
Target High
| Aspect | Description |
|---|---|
| Definition | Most bullish analyst target |
| Represents | Best-case scenario |
| Use | Maximum upside potential |
| Caution | May be overly optimistic |
Target Low
| Aspect | Description |
|---|---|
| Definition | Most bearish analyst target |
| Represents | Worst-case scenario |
| Use | Downside risk assessment |
| Caution | May be overly pessimistic |
Calculating Potential
Upside/Downside Formulas
Consensus Upside = (Consensus Target - Current Price) / Current Price × 100%
Maximum Upside = (Target High - Current Price) / Current Price × 100%
Downside Risk = (Target Low - Current Price) / Current Price × 100%
Example Calculations
If AAPL trades at $270.01:
| Metric | Target | Potential |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus | $303.11 | +12.3% upside |
| Median | $315.00 | +16.7% upside |
| High | $350.00 | +29.6% upside |
| Low | $220.00 | -18.5% downside |
Range Analysis
Spread Calculation
Range = Target High - Target Low
Spread % = Range / Consensus Target × 100%
Interpreting Spread
| Spread % | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| <20% | Strong consensus |
| 20-40% | Normal range |
| 40-60% | Moderate disagreement |
| >60% | High uncertainty |
Example Range Analysis
From AAPL data:
- High: $350.00
- Low: $220.00
- Range: $130.00
- Consensus: $303.11
- Spread: 42.9%
Interpretation: Moderate disagreement among analysts, with significant difference between bulls and bears.
Consensus vs. Median
When to Use Each
| Scenario | Prefer |
|---|---|
| Normal distribution | Consensus (average) |
| Outliers present | Median |
| Skewed targets | Median |
| General expectation | Consensus |
Identifying Skew
| Condition | Indicates |
|---|---|
| Consensus > Median | Right skew (bullish outliers) |
| Consensus < Median | Left skew (bearish outliers) |
| Consensus ≈ Median | Symmetric distribution |
Example
From AAPL data:
- Consensus: $303.11
- Median: $315.00
- Consensus < Median → Left skew (some bearish outliers pulling average down)
Bull vs. Bear Cases
Understanding Extremes
| Target | Represents |
|---|---|
| High | Bull case assumptions |
| Low | Bear case assumptions |
| Gap | Range of outcomes |
Scenario Analysis
| Scenario | Assumptions |
|---|---|
| Bull Case | Strong growth, expanding margins, favorable macro |
| Base Case | Consensus expectations |
| Bear Case | Challenges, competition, risks materialize |
Practical Applications
Investment Decision
| Finding | Consideration |
|---|---|
| Price < Low Target | Potential deep value or concerns |
| Price near Consensus | Fairly valued |
| Price > High Target | Potentially overvalued |
Risk Assessment
| Metric | Use For |
|---|---|
| Downside to Low | Worst-case loss |
| Upside to High | Best-case gain |
| Risk/Reward | Low upside / High downside |
Position Sizing
| Consensus View | Position Approach |
|---|---|
| Strong upside, tight range | Larger position |
| Moderate upside, wide range | Standard position |
| Limited upside, wide range | Smaller position |
Common Use Cases
Quick Valuation Check
Is AAPL fairly valued based on analyst targets?
Upside Screening
Which tech stocks have the highest consensus upside?
Risk Assessment
What's the downside risk to the lowest analyst target for TSLA?
Sentiment Check
How wide is the range between bull and bear cases for NVDA?
Analysis Tips
-
Compare to current price: Calculate actual upside/downside.
-
Use median when skewed: More reliable central tendency.
-
Analyze the range: Wide = uncertainty, tight = agreement.
-
Consider timing: Targets are typically 12-month forward.
-
Track changes: Rising consensus = improving sentiment.
-
Combine with fundamentals: Targets are opinions, verify with data.
Integration with Other Skills
| Skill | Combined Use |
|---|---|
| stock-quote | Current price for potential calculation |
| price-target-summary | Historical target trends |
| analyst-estimates | Earnings behind the targets |
| financial-metrics-analysis | Fundamental validation |