trading-alert-scheduler

Target: 30 min/day saved + fewer missed setups from not watching screens during 50-call days.

<quick_start> Daily automated run (7am CST / 8am EST — 1.5 hrs before market open): Scheduled task scans all watchlist tickers + open positions → delivers digest

On-demand: "market digest" → runs full scan now "what's setting up" → filtered to high-conviction setups only "check my positions" → IBKR portfolio health only

Trigger phrases:

• "market digest" / "trading alerts" / "pre-market scan"
• "watchlist check" / "what's setting up"
• "trading morning brief" / "market open prep"
• "check my positions" / "position health" </quick_start>

<success_criteria>

• All watchlist tickers scanned with regime + technical analysis
• Open IBKR positions checked for risk/expiry/Greeks health
• High-conviction setups (confluence ≥ 0.7) surfaced at top
• Position risk alerts flagged (approaching max loss, expiry, assignment risk)
• Digest scannable in under 3 minutes
• No intraday interruptions — one daily read covers everything
• Missed setup rate reduced vs manual checking </success_criteria>

Architecture

SCHEDULED (7am CST)          ANALYSIS                       OUTPUT
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Watchlist tickers     →  Regime detection (Markov)    →  Daily Digest
IBKR open positions   →  Technical scan (5 methods)   →  Action List
Market internals      →  Options flow anomalies       →  Position Alerts
Economic calendar     →  Greeks/risk check positions   →  Risk Dashboard

Stage 1: Data Collection

1a. Watchlist Tickers

Tim's default watchlist (update in reference/watchlist.json):

Core positions: SPY, QQQ, IWM, TLT, GLD, SLV, USO, VIX Individual stocks: AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, AMZN, META, GOOG, AMD, PLTR, COIN Crypto proxies: BITO, MSTR Sector ETFs: XLF, XLE, XLK, ARKK, SMH

For each ticker, use web search to pull:

• Current price + pre-market move
• 5-day price action summary
• Volume vs average
• Key support/resistance levels
• Any overnight news/catalysts

1b. IBKR Portfolio Positions

Use IBKR MCP server tools (ArjunDivecha/ibkr-mcp-server, installed at ~/Desktop/tk_projects/ibkr-mcp-server/):

Tool	Data Pulled
get_portfolio	All open positions + P&L across accounts (Roth IRA, personal brokerage, THK Enterprises)
get_account_summary	Balances, margin utilization, buying power, cash available
switch_account	Toggle between accounts for per-account view
get_margin_requirements	Current margin needs per position

Prerequisites: IB Gateway must be running on port 7497 (paper) or 7496 (live). If IBKR not connected: Skip this section — web search covers market data. Portfolio section shows "IBKR not connected — start IB Gateway to enable portfolio checks."

1c. Market Internals

Web search for:

• S&P 500 advance/decline
• VIX level + term structure (contango/backwardation)
• Put/call ratio
• 10Y Treasury yield
• DXY (dollar index)
• Fed funds futures (rate expectations)
• Economic calendar events for today

Stage 2: Analysis (Using trading-signals Framework)

2a. Regime Detection

For SPY (market proxy), run Markov 7-state regime model:

State	Description	Strategy Bias
0	Strong bull	Long bias, sell puts
1	Moderate bull	Long bias, covered calls
2	Weak bull / consolidation	Neutral, iron condors
3	Transition / chop	Reduce size, wait
4	Weak bear	Hedge, reduce long
5	Moderate bear	Short bias, buy puts
6	Crash / high vol	Protection mode, VIX plays

2b. Per-Ticker Technical Scan

For each watchlist ticker, score on 5 methodologies:

Method	Signal	Weight (regime-adjusted)
Elliott Wave	Wave position + projected target	20-30%
Wyckoff	Accumulation/distribution phase	15-25%
Fibonacci	Key retracement/extension levels	15-20%
Turtle	Donchian breakout signals	10-20%
Markov Regime	Regime-appropriate strategy	20-30%

Confluence Score: Weighted average across methods

• ≥ 0.7: HIGH — Flag as actionable setup
• 0.4-0.7: MODERATE — Watch list, note trigger level
• < 0.4: LOW — No action, skip from digest

2c. Options Flow Scan

For tickers with options positions or high confluence:

• Unusual volume (>2x avg) on specific strikes
• Put/call ratio shifts
• Implied volatility rank (IVR) — is premium rich or cheap?
• Earnings dates within 14 days

2d. Position Health Check

For each open IBKR position (via get_portfolio + get_account_summary):

Check	Alert Threshold
Days to expiry	< 7 DTE on options → ROLL/CLOSE decision
Delta exposure	Portfolio delta > ±50 → hedge needed
Max loss approaching	Position down > 50% of max loss → manage
Assignment risk	ITM short options near expiry → close or roll
Theta decay	Positive theta across portfolio?
Margin utilization	> 50% → reduce risk
Concentrated position	Any single position > 15% of portfolio → flag

Stage 3: Output — Daily Trading Digest

╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║  TRADING DIGEST — [Date] | Pre-Market                        ║
║  Market Regime: [STATE] | VIX: [level] | Futures: [ES move]  ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣

MARKET OVERVIEW:
- ES Futures: [+/-X.XX%] | NQ: [+/-X.XX%]
- VIX: [level] ([contango/backwardation])
- 10Y: [yield] | DXY: [level]
- Key event today: [economic calendar item]

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

🎯 HIGH-CONVICTION SETUPS (confluence ≥ 0.7):

1. [TICKER] — [Direction] | Confluence: [0.XX]
   Setup: [description — e.g., "Wyckoff spring at $185 support,
          Elliott wave 3 launching, Turtle breakout confirmed"]
   Entry: $[XX.XX] | Target: $[XX.XX] | Stop: $[XX.XX]
   Options play: [specific strategy — e.g., "Apr 190C @ $3.20,
                  delta 0.45, 3:1 R:R"]
   Why: [1-2 sentence reasoning]

2. [TICKER] — [Direction] | Confluence: [0.XX]
   ...

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

⚠️ POSITION ALERTS (action needed):

1. [TICKER] [STRIKE] [EXPIRY] — [ALERT TYPE]
   Current P&L: [+/-$XXX] | Days to expiry: [X]
   Recommended action: [ROLL to [new strike/expiry] | CLOSE | HOLD]
   Why: [reason]

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

👀 WATCHLIST (confluence 0.4-0.7, not yet actionable):

| Ticker | Direction | Confluence | Trigger Level | Note |
|--------|-----------|------------|---------------|------|
| NVDA | Long | 0.55 | Break $950 | Needs volume confirm |
| TLT | Long | 0.48 | Hold $88 | Rate decision Thurs |

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

📊 PORTFOLIO SNAPSHOT:
| Account | Value | Day P&L | Margin Used |
|---------|-------|---------|-------------|
| Roth IRA | $XX,XXX | +/-$XXX | N/A |
| Personal | $XX,XXX | +/-$XXX | XX% |
| Business | $XX,XXX | +/-$XXX | XX% |

Net Delta: [+/-XX] | Net Theta: [+/-$XX/day] | IVR avg: [XX%]

═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

📅 THIS WEEK:
- [Earnings/events that affect watchlist]
- [Fed speakers / economic data]
- [Options expiration dates]

╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝

Rules

• No intraday alerts. This runs ONCE at 7am. Tim checks it, makes decisions, then focuses on BDR work.
• Actionable only. Don't list 30 tickers with "neutral" signals. Only surface what needs attention.
• Position management first. Alerts on existing positions before new setups.
• Risk management always. Every setup includes stop loss. Portfolio delta/margin always visible.
• 2% rule enforced. Flag if any suggested trade exceeds 2% portfolio risk.
• 15% concentration rule. Flag if any position exceeds 15% of account.

Required Tools

• Web Search: Pre-market data, news, economic calendar, options flow (primary data source)
• IBKR MCP (ArjunDivecha/ibkr-mcp-server): get_portfolio, get_account_summary, switch_account, get_market_data, get_historical_data, get_margin_requirements, check_shortable_shares, get_borrow_rates, short_selling_analysis, get_connection_status — requires IB Gateway on port 7497 (paper) or 7496 (live). If not connected, web search covers market data.
• Scheduling: CronCreate "53 6 * * 1-5" for session-based 7am CST runs (3-day auto-expire)

Data Sources (via web search)

• Yahoo Finance / TradingView: Price data, technicals
• CBOE: VIX, put/call ratios
• CME: Futures, Fed funds
• Finviz: Screener, market internals
• Unusual Whales / Barchart: Options flow