🦅 CONDOR v3.0 — One Amazing Trade per Day

Top 50 assets. Pure trend continuation. Apex confluence only. One trade a day.

⛔ CRITICAL AGENT RULES

RULE 1: Install path is `/data/workspace/skills/condor-strategy/`

RULE 2: THE SCANNER DOES NOT EXIT POSITIONS — DSL only.

RULE 3: MAX 1 POSITION (the one amazing trade)

RULE 4: Verify runtime on every session start

RULE 5: Never modify parameters

RULE 6: MAX 1 ENTRY per 24h

RULE 7: 120-minute post-exit cooldown before next entry

RULE 8: HARD_STOP circuit breaker triggers at -25% drawdown

Thesis

Pure trend continuation, never counter-trend.

From Kodiak's lifetime top 3 winners (all SOL, +$133 / +$87 / +$78):

"The absolute highest predictor of a massive directional swing is when the 4H, 1H, 15m, and 5m price momentum are perfectly unified in a single direction, AND the Smart Money leaderboard is heavily lopsided (>65% directional consensus) in that exact same direction."

From Wolverine's HYPE SHORT post-mortem (-$160 loss, 2026-04-16):

"We stepped in front of a runaway 32% freight train to catch a 1% micro-retrace. The historical winners traded with the massive macro shift, not against it."

Condor v3.0 enforces both insights as hard gates.

Hard Gates (all must pass — fail = skip asset)

Not XYZ, not stablecoin
OI > $1M USD (PR #196 context-aware read)
trader_count >= 50 (signal validity)
3TF ALIGNMENT — 4h_price + 1h_price + 15m SM velocity all aligned in entry direction, each clearing magnitude threshold
MACRO TREND GATE — if |4h_move| > 10% in OPPOSITE direction of entry, BLOCK. No stepping in front of freight trains.
SM consensus >= 65% in entry direction
BTC macro aligned — alts don't fight strong BTC macro (BTC 4h > 1.5% in opposite direction = block)

Scoring (max ~18 pts, MIN_SCORE=11)

Signal	Points
4h move magnitude: >2% (+2), >4% (+3), >6% (+4)	1-4
1h confirmation: >0.5% (+1), >1% (+2)	1-2
15m SM velocity: >1.0 (+1), >2.0 (+2)	1-2
3TF_ALIGNED bonus	+3
SM consensus: >=65% (+2), >=75% (+3), >=80% STRONGLY_TILTED (+4)	2-4
trader_count >= 100 (DEEP_CONSENSUS)	+1
Funding pays direction	+1
BTC macro confirms (aligned, >1.5%)	+1
Peak session (13-19 UTC or 00-05 UTC)	+1

Position Sizing (Kodiak empirical 10x cap)

Score	Leverage	Margin
11-12	10x (clamped to asset max)	50% of equity
13-14	10x	70% of equity (HIGH)
15+ (APEX)	10x	80% of equity

Never above 10x leverage. Both Kodiak and Wolverine confirmed 10x is the empirical ceiling — above this, fees + wick vulnerability destroy the edge.

Leverage auto-clamped to per-asset Hyperliquid max via strategy_get_asset_trading_limits.

Exit (DSL) — Mid-Beta Profile

Calibrated from Kodiak's SOL winners. Single-breach onchain RatchetStop.

Mechanism	Value	Rationale
hard_timeout	1440 min (24h)	One trade per day — close if not working by EOD
weak_peak_cut	120 min @ 3% min	Peak stale for 2h = not developing
dead_weight_cut	60 min	No movement = dead
Phase 1 max_loss	20%	Same level that killed Wolverine's HYPE SHORT — but that was counter-trend. Kodiak's SOL trades didn't hit Phase 1.
Phase 1 retrace	8%
Phase 2 tier 1	8% ROE trigger → 30% HW lock	Kodiak's Tier 1
Phase 2 tier 2	15% → 50%	Tier 2
Phase 2 tier 3	25% → 70%	Kodiak's #3 trade exit tier
Phase 2 tier 4	40% → 85%	Kodiak's #1/#2 exit tier
Phase 2 tier 5	60% → 90%	Infinite trail on monster winners
Phase 2 tier 6	100% → 94%	Monster-class winners

Note: DSL profile is mid-beta default. High-beta alts (HYPE/WIF/AVAX) would benefit from wider tiers (12%/20%, 20%/40%, 35%/65%, 55%/80%). Low-beta majors (BTC) would benefit from tighter (5%/35%, 10%/55%). Future v3.1 could branch per-asset; v3.0 ships with mid-beta as universal.

One-Trade-a-Day Discipline

Max 1 concurrent position. No diversification — we're swinging for ONE big winner.
Daily cap = 1 (circuit breaker triggers 0 at -25% drawdown).
2h post-exit cooldown before next entry on ANY asset.
24h hard_timeout on DSL — if position isn't working by end of day, close.

Install

mkdir -p /data/workspace/skills/condor-strategy/{config,scripts,state}

curl -s https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Senpi-ai/senpi-skills/main/condor/runtime.yaml -o /data/workspace/skills/condor-strategy/runtime.yaml
curl -s https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Senpi-ai/senpi-skills/main/condor/SKILL.md -o /data/workspace/skills/condor-strategy/SKILL.md
curl -s https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Senpi-ai/senpi-skills/main/condor/config/condor-config.json -o /data/workspace/skills/condor-strategy/config/condor-config.json
curl -s https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Senpi-ai/senpi-skills/main/condor/scripts/condor-scanner.py -o /data/workspace/skills/condor-strategy/scripts/condor-scanner.py
curl -s https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Senpi-ai/senpi-skills/main/condor/scripts/condor_config.py -o /data/workspace/skills/condor-strategy/scripts/condor_config.py

Configure

sed -i 's/${WALLET_ADDRESS}/<YOUR_STRATEGY_WALLET>/' /data/workspace/skills/condor-strategy/runtime.yaml
sed -i 's/${TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID}/<YOUR_TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID>/' /data/workspace/skills/condor-strategy/runtime.yaml

Install runtime + create scanner cron

openclaw senpi runtime create --path /data/workspace/skills/condor-strategy/runtime.yaml
openclaw senpi runtime list
# Create 3-minute cron: python3 /data/workspace/skills/condor-strategy/scripts/condor-scanner.py

Changelog

v3.0 (2026-04-16) — COMPLETE REWRITE

Thesis flipped: multi-asset thesis picker → single-position trend-continuation apex sniper
Universe expanded: 4 majors → top 50 HL assets by 24h volume
Added 3TF_ALIGNMENT hard gate (Kodiak's pattern)
Added MACRO_TREND_GATE (Wolverine's insight — no counter-trend fights)
Added BTC macro alignment check
Added peak-session bonus (13-19 UTC or 00-05 UTC)
Sizing scales with score: 50% / 70% / 80% margin
Leverage hard-capped at 10x (Kodiak empirical)
DSL profile calibrated from Kodiak's SOL winner exit tiers
ONE TRADE PER DAY discipline (max 1 position, 24h hard timeout)
Fleet-standard: canonical MCP schema, leverage clamping, inner-order validation, context-aware reads

v2.x (pre-2026-04-16)

Multi-asset thesis picker (BTC/ETH/SOL/HYPE)
Conviction-scaled margin
Not fit for the single-breach DSL era

License

MIT — Built by Senpi (https://senpi.ai). Source: https://github.com/Senpi-ai/senpi-skills

condor-strategy