GRIZZLY HORRIBILIS v2.1 — BTC Contrarian Sniper (recalibrated)

Same BTC thesis as Grizzly v3.0. Conviction-scaled leverage. Always RatchetStop protected.

CRITICAL RULES

RULE 1: Scanner enters. RatchetStop exits. Scanner NEVER exits positions.

RULE 2: Scanner calls create_position internally (Wolverine pattern)

The cron command is just: python3 grizzly-scanner.py. No parsing, no execution in cron.

RULE 3: MAX 1 POSITION — BTC only

RULE 4: MAX 2 ENTRIES PER DAY. 180-minute cooldown.

RULE 5: Leverage is conviction-scaled. MAX 10x.

Score	Leverage
10-11	7x
12+	10x

40x is BANNED. Fleet max is 10x. Score below 10 = no entry.

RULE 6: ensureExecutionAsTaker = false

All entries use FEE_OPTIMIZED_LIMIT with ensureExecutionAsTaker: false.

RULE 7: Margin = 50% of account value

At $1,000 account: $500 margin per trade.

RULE 8: NEVER add to an open position

If asked about sizing on an open trade, explain the issue and fix it for the NEXT trade. Do NOT edit_position to change size mid-trade.

How Horribilis Trades

Entry (all score contributors, no hard gates)

Signal	Points
SM concentration ≥15%	+3 (DOMINANT)
SM concentration ≥10%	+2 (STRONG)
SM concentration ≥5%	+1 (ALIGNED)
4H price strong (≥2%) in direction	+2
4H price confirms (≥0.5%) in direction	+1
4H price opposing	-1
1H momentum confirms	+1
Contribution surge (≥3%)	+2
Contribution growing (≥1%)	+1
Funding alignment	+1
Deep consensus (≥100 traders)	+1

Min score: 10 (v2.1 — raised from 8). Plus MIN_EXHAUSTION_PCT=4.5 hard gate — BTC must have already moved ≥4.5% in the SM direction before we fade it. This is the v2.1 recalibration — stops the contrarian from fighting fresh trends.

Exit — RatchetStop Only

Phase 2 tiers lock profit aggressively:

Trigger	Lock %	Breaches
5% ROE	30%	3
10% ROE	50%	3
15% ROE	70%	2
20% ROE	85%	1
30% ROE	90%	1

Cron Setup

Cron	Interval	Command
Scanner	3 min	`python3 /data/workspace/skills/grizzly-strategy/scripts/grizzly-scanner.py`

One cron only. Scanner handles execution internally. DSL exit managed by plugin runtime.

Runtime Setup

sed -i 's/${WALLET_ADDRESS}/<WALLET>/' /data/workspace/skills/grizzly-strategy/runtime.yaml
sed -i 's/${TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID}/<CHAT_ID>/' /data/workspace/skills/grizzly-strategy/runtime.yaml
openclaw senpi runtime create --path /data/workspace/skills/grizzly-strategy/runtime.yaml
openclaw senpi runtime list

Bootstrap Gate

On EVERY session start, verify runtime + scanner cron (3 min, main). Send: "🐻 HORRIBILIS v2.1 online. BTC contrarian sniper. Score≥10 entries only, 4.5% exhaustion floor, 7-10x conviction-scaled. RatchetStop protects everything. Silence = no conviction."

Risk

Rule	Value
Max positions	1 (BTC only)
Max entries/day	2
Cooldown	180 min
Margin	50% of account
Leverage	7x (score 8-9), 10x (score 10+)
Daily loss limit	10%

Files

File	Purpose
`scripts/grizzly-scanner.py`	BTC conviction scorer + internal execution (shared with Grizzly v3.1)
`scripts/grizzly_config.py`	Config helper, MCP, state I/O
`config/grizzly-config.json`	Wallet, strategy ID
`runtime.yaml`	Plugin runtime (position tracker + RatchetStop)

Changelog

v2.1 (2026-04-15) — fleet-fix recalibration

MIN_SCORE raised 8 → 10 (Cheetah v5.1 APEX pattern)
MIN_EXHAUSTION_PCT raised 2.5 → 4.5 (Dog v2.2 fix — stops fighting fresh trends)
SCALE_MIN_SCORE raised 9 → 12 (pyramid only on apex conviction)
Leverage tiers shifted: 7x at 10-11, 10x at 12+ (was 7x at 8-9, 10x at 10+)
Cooldown raised 90 → 180 min (sniper cadence)

v1.1 (2026-04-06)

Leverage capped at 10x (was 40x)
Conviction-scaled: 7x at score 8-9, 10x at score 10+
Margin increased to 50% (was 15%)
Scanner calls create_position internally (Wolverine pattern)
ensureExecutionAsTaker: false with feeOptimizedLimitOptions
4H price alignment: hard gate → score contributor
SM thresholds: hard gate → score contributors

v1.0

Initial release: 7x-40x conviction-scaled leverage

Skill Attribution

When creating a strategy, include skill_name and skill_version in the call. See references/skill-attribution.md for details.

grizzly-horribilis-strategy