🍋 LEMON v1.1 — Degen Fader

The crowd is wrong. Lemon trades against the worst traders on the Hyperfeed when their consensus is fading.

Thesis

Hyperliquid attracts a lot of low-quality, high-leverage retail traders ("degens"). The Senpi MCP discovery_get_top_traders tool classifies traders by Trading Consistency Score (TCS) — the bottom buckets are CHOPPY and DEGEN. These traders consistently lose money over time. Counter-trading their consensus when their momentum is fading is a positive-edge strategy.

Lemon scans 12 liquid crypto majors every 5 minutes for setups where:

Smart money is concentrated on one direction (≥3% pct of top traders gain, ≥20 traders)
The 15m velocity is fading (the move is exhausting — contribution_pct_change_15m ≤ 0.1, ideally negative)
The 4H price is overextended in the SM direction (mean-reversion setup)
The 1H price is starting to reverse toward the fade direction

When all gates pass and the score reaches MIN_SCORE (8), Lemon enters in the OPPOSITE direction to the SM consensus. Wide DSL gives the reversal time to develop.

v1.1 changes from v1.0 (fleet hardening)

Scanner calls create_position internally via mcporter (Wolverine self-executing pattern)
feeOptimizedLimitOptions with FEE_OPTIMIZED_LIMIT order type
Conviction-scaled leverage: 14+→20x, 12+→15x, 10+→10x, 8+→7x
Margin at 50% per trade
has_resting_orders() with reduceOnly filter prevents position stacking
Hyperfeed multi-window contribution velocity (15m, 1h) scoring
Move-exhaustion penalty/bonus structure
No thesis exit — DSL manages all exits
MAX_DAILY_ENTRIES = 3, COOLDOWN_MINUTES = 120
XYZ_BANNED = True — equities don't follow the same crowding dynamics

Tracked assets

BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, AVAX, DOGE, LINK, XRP, ADA, NEAR, UNI, AAVE

12 liquid crypto majors. XYZ DEX equities are explicitly banned — Lemon's thesis doesn't apply to macro-driven instruments.

Pipeline

1. fetch_sm_data() — leaderboard_get_markets, filter to TRACKED_ASSETS, normalize fields
2. For each asset:
   - Skip if currently held
   - Skip if on per-asset cooldown
   - evaluate_fade(asset, sm_data) — score the contrarian setup
3. If candidates exist, sort by score, pick best
4. execute_entry() — call create_position via mcporter
5. Mark cooldown, increment trade counter

Scoring (max ~16 points)

Hard gates (any failure = reject)

pct_of_top_traders_gain ≥ 3%
trader_count ≥ 20
contribution_pct_change_15m ≤ 0.1 (SM is no longer building, the move is exhausting)
Asset must be in TRACKED_ASSETS
Not currently held
Not on per-asset cooldown
XYZ DEX banned

Scoring components

Signal	Points
DEGEN_PILE: SM concentration ≥ 20%	4
HEAVY_CROWD: 12-20%	3
CROWDED: 7-12%	2
LEANING: 3-7%	1
15M_COLLAPSING: contrib_15m < -2.0	3
15M_FADING: contrib_15m -2.0 to -0.5	2
15M_COOLING: contrib_15m -0.5 to -0.1	1
1H_FADING: contrib_1h < -0.5	1
OVEREXTENDED 4H (≥3% in SM direction)	2
EXTENDED 4H (≥1.5% in SM direction)	1
1H_REVERSING toward fade direction	1
4H_SM_WEAKENING (4h contrib < -1.0)	1
FUNDING_PAYS_FADE (funding direction matches fade)	1
US_SESSION (13-21 UTC)	1

Min score: 8. Leverage tiers: 7x base, 10x at score 10+, 15x at score 12+, 20x at score 14+ (capped by fleet MAX_LEVERAGE = 20).

Key settings

Setting	Value	Why
Tracked assets	12 crypto majors	Liquid, follow crowding dynamics
Max positions	1	Concentration
Margin per trade	50%	High conviction commits high capital
Min score	8	Tunable; higher = fewer/better trades
Per-asset cooldown	120 min	Patience between trades
Max daily entries	3 (dynamic cap-aware)	Quality over quantity
Leverage tiers	7x / 10x / 15x / 20x	Fleet conviction-scaled
MAX_LEVERAGE	20	Fleet hard cap (H12 audit)
XYZ banned	True	Equities don't follow the thesis

DSL configuration

Wide tiers for fade trades that need time to mean-revert:

Setting	Value	Notes
`hard_timeout`	480 min (8h)	Mean reversion can take hours
`weak_peak_cut`	60 min, min 2.0%	Cut if peak ROE never breaks 2% in 60 min
`dead_weight_cut`	20 min	Cut early stallers
`phase1.max_loss_pct`	15%	Tighter than fleet 25% — fades fail fast
`phase2.tier_1`	+5% / 20% lock	Don't bank too early
`phase2.tier_2`	+10% / 40% lock
`phase2.tier_3`	+15% / 60% lock
`phase2.tier_4`	+20% / 75% lock
`phase2.tier_5`	+30% / 85% lock
`phase2.tier_6`	+50% / 92% lock	Maximum protection on huge wins

Fleet-standard guardrails

Self-executing via create_position (no external action layer needed)
Dynamic P&L-aware daily cap (PR #176)
has_resting_orders() auto-cancels stale maker orders >10 min (PR #177)
Stale-date bug fix in load_trade_counter() (PR #177)
Per-asset cooldown (120 min)
Conviction-scaled leverage capped at 20x

⛔ Critical agent rules

Install path is /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/
THE SCANNER DOES NOT EXIT POSITIONS — DSL handles all exits
MAX 1 POSITION at a time
MAX 3 ENTRIES PER DAY (dynamic cap may lower this on drawdown)
Thesis is FADING, not following — Lemon trades OPPOSITE to SM consensus by design. Direction inversion is intentional.
No XYZ DEX trades — equities don't follow the crowding/exhaustion thesis
120-minute per-asset cooldown — never bypass
Verify runtime on every session start

Setup

Pull from GitHub

mkdir -p /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/{config,scripts,state}

curl -s https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Senpi-ai/senpi-skills/main/lemon/runtime.yaml \
  -o /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/runtime.yaml

curl -s https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Senpi-ai/senpi-skills/main/lemon/SKILL.md \
  -o /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/SKILL.md

curl -s https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Senpi-ai/senpi-skills/main/lemon/config/lemon-config.json \
  -o /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/config/lemon-config.json

curl -s https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Senpi-ai/senpi-skills/main/lemon/scripts/lemon-scanner.py \
  -o /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/scripts/lemon-scanner.py

curl -s https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Senpi-ai/senpi-skills/main/lemon/scripts/lemon_config.py \
  -o /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/scripts/lemon_config.py

Set wallet and chat ID

sed -i 's/${WALLET_ADDRESS}/<YOUR_STRATEGY_WALLET>/' /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/runtime.yaml
sed -i 's/${TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID}/<YOUR_TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID>/' /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/runtime.yaml

Or set in config/lemon-config.json. Environment variables: LEMON_WALLET, LEMON_STRATEGY_ID.

Install runtime

openclaw senpi runtime create --path /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/runtime.yaml
openclaw senpi runtime list && openclaw senpi status

Verify

python3 /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/scripts/lemon-scanner.py

Expected: clean exit, JSON output with "_lemon_version": "1.1". Most likely first run shows a heartbeat (no fade signal).

Run on a recurring schedule

Recommended: detached bash loop (zero LLM wake cost):

nohup bash -c 'while true; do python3 /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/scripts/lemon-scanner.py >> /tmp/lemon-loop.log 2>&1; sleep 300; done' > /tmp/lemon-nohup.log 2>&1 &

ps aux | grep lemon-scanner | grep -v grep
tail -5 /tmp/lemon-loop.log

5-minute cadence (slower than other agents because fade setups are rarer).

Best for

Operators who believe momentum chasing on Hyperliquid is a losing edge
Multi-asset diversification across 12 crypto majors
Mean-reversion / contrarian strategies
Patient holds (1-8 hours per trade — reversals take time)
Operators who want a deterministic execution layer

Not for

Momentum followers (use Phoenix, Wolverine, Condor, or Raptor)
Single-asset specialists (use Wolverine for HYPE, Polar for ETH, Kodiak for SOL)
High-frequency scalping
XYZ DEX equities (use Bald Eagle or Kestrel)
Anyone who wants the scanner to make exit decisions (DSL handles all exits)

Track record

Lemon has been one of two consistently green agents in the Senpi Predators fleet (37 red / 2 green as of 2026-04-14). The thesis works because the underlying behavior pattern (degens piling into exhausted moves) is structural, not market-regime-dependent.

lemon-strategy