Governance and Risk

Overview

This skill implements the Decision Analysis & Resolution (DAR) and Risk Management (RSKM) process areas from the CMMI-based SDLC prescription.

Core principle: Proactive governance prevents costly reactive firefighting. Documentation and risk management are investments that pay 3-10x returns by avoiding crisis mode.

Critical distinction:

• Reactive: Handle problems when they occur (expensive, stressful, compounding)
• Proactive: Identify and mitigate problems before they occur (cheap, controlled, preventive)

Reference: See docs/sdlc-prescription-cmmi-levels-2-4.md Sections 3.4.1 (DAR) and 3.4.2 (RSKM) for complete policy.

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When to Use

Use this skill when:

• Making architectural or technical decisions without ADRs
• Hearing "it's obvious" or "everyone agrees" (groupthink red flag)
• Skipping risk identification ("what could go wrong?")
• Accepting risks without mitigation plans
• Deferring to authority without independent analysis (CTO says, tech lead suggests)
• Using sunk cost to justify decisions ("we've already invested...")
• Treating governance as bureaucracy or overhead
• No ongoing risk monitoring ("set and forget")

Do NOT use for:

• Trivial decisions (variable names, code style) → Use coding standards
• Implementation details → Use design-and-build skill
• Security-specific risk analysis → Use ordis-security-architect

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Quick Reference

Situation	Framework	Mandatory At	Key Action
"Obvious" architectural decision	DAR with ADR	Level 3+	Document alternatives even if choice is clear
High-risk decision (vendor, framework)	DAR with decision matrix	Level 2+ for high-risk	Evaluate alternatives before committing
Authority wants specific option	DAR with independent analysis	Level 3+	Analyze alternatives BEFORE authority input
External dependency (API, vendor)	RSKM with mitigation	Level 2+	Risk register + mitigation plan mandatory
"Low-risk" project	RSKM with risk identification	Level 2+	Optimism bias - identify risks proactively
Mid-project (risk monitoring)	RSKM review cadence	Level 3+	Scheduled reviews, not set-and-forget

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Governance Level Framework

When Practices Are MANDATORY

Level 2 Baseline (All Projects):

• ADRs for high-risk decisions (vendor selection, framework choice, data storage)
• Risk identification with basic register
• Mitigation plans for high-probability or high-impact risks

Level 3 Organizational Standard:

• ADRs for all architectural decisions (not just high-risk)
• Alternatives analysis with decision criteria
• Risk register with probability/impact classification
• Scheduled risk reviews (not set-and-forget)
• Independent analysis before authority/consensus input

Level 4 Quantitative:

• Statistical risk models
• Quantitative decision criteria
• Process performance baselines for decision quality

When Practices Are OPTIONAL

Level 1 or Low-Risk Projects:

• Internal prototypes (< 2 week lifespan)
• Single-developer projects with no audit requirements
• Throwaway code (spikes, experiments)

CRITICAL: "Low-risk" is often optimism bias. Verify with risk assessment before declaring optional.

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Anti-Patterns and Rationalizations

"It's Obvious"

Detection: "Everyone agrees", "clear choice", "no brainer"

Why it's tempting: Saves time, reduces documentation burden, team aligned

Why it fails: Today's "obvious" is tomorrow's mysterious. Future maintainers lack context, assumptions not validated, alternatives not considered

Counter:

• Level 3 requirement: Document even "obvious" decisions
• Context loss timeline: 6 months for team turnover, 3 months for forgotten assumptions
• Question to ask: "If someone joins the team in 6 months, will they know WHY we chose this?"
• Lightweight ADR takes 20 minutes, saves hours of future confusion

Red flags: "We all know", "Obviously", "No need to write it down"

"Low-Risk Project"

Detection: "Simple project", "Internal only", "We've done this before", "What could go wrong?"

Why it's tempting: Small scope, experienced team, reduces overhead

Why it fails: Scope creep, resource constraints, and timeline slips hit "simple" projects just as often. Optimism bias blinds to risks.

Counter:

• Level 2 requirement: Risk identification for ALL projects
• Common risks for "simple" projects: scope creep (stakeholders add "just one more thing"), resource availability (PTO, competing priorities), data access (permissions, security approvals), timeline slip (integration surprises)
• Reactive firefighting costs 3-10x proactive planning
• 30-minute risk session saves days of crisis mode

Red flags: "What could go wrong?", "It's just...", "Low-risk"

"Authority/CTO Prefers It"

Detection: "CTO met with vendor", "Tech lead suggested", "Management wants"

Why it's tempting: Reduces conflict, speeds decision, aligns with leadership

Why it fails: Authority bias prevents genuine alternatives analysis. Senior stakeholders have blind spots, vendor relationships create bias, title ≠ technical correctness

Counter:

• Level 3 requirement: Independent alternatives analysis BEFORE authority input
• Document decision criteria first (security, cost, integration, vendor stability)
• Evaluate options against criteria WITHOUT authority preference
• Present analysis to authority: "Here's what the data shows, here's your preference, here's my recommendation"
• Authority can override, but must be documented as "decision override based on non-technical factors"

Red flags: "CTO wants", "We should align with leadership", "Don't want to contradict"

"We've Already Invested Time" (Sunk Cost)

Detection: "We've had 2 sales calls", "Demo account set up", "Already started integration"

Why it's tempting: Feels wasteful to "go backwards", momentum toward choice

Why it fails: Sunk cost fallacy - past investment doesn't validate future commitment. Small sunk cost vs large future cost (vendor lock-in, wrong tool).

Counter:

• Name the fallacy: "This is sunk cost fallacy"
• Calculate future cost: "2 sales calls (4 hours sunk) vs 3-year vendor lock-in (hundreds of hours if wrong choice)"
• Reframe: "We invested 4 hours evaluating Option A. Should we invest 2 hours evaluating Options B and C to validate?"
• Past investment gives you evaluation data, not decision commitment

Red flags: "We've already", "Going backwards", "Wasted effort"

"Trust the Vendor" / "99.9% SLA"

Detection: "Established company", "Good reputation", "SLA guarantees uptime"

Why it's tempting: Vendor reputation, SLA promises reduce perceived risk

Why it fails: SLAs are probabilistic, not guarantees. 99.9% = 43 minutes downtime per month. All vendors have outages. Trust ≠ technical mitigation.

Counter:

• Calculate SLA impact: 99.9% uptime = 43 min/month, 8.76 hours/year. Acceptable for your use case?
• Mitigation still required: Circuit breaker, fallback, queueing, graceful degradation
• Vendor reputation reduces probability but doesn't eliminate risk
• Question: "What happens to our users if vendor API is down for 1 hour? Do we have a plan?"

Red flags: "We can trust them", "SLA is good enough", "Reputable company"

"We'll Fix It If It Happens"

Detection: "Handle issues as they come up", "React when needed", "Cross that bridge"

Why it's tempting: Defers work, avoids speculation, focuses on current tasks

Why it fails: Reactive firefighting costs 3-10x proactive mitigation. Incidents occur when you have least capacity to respond (deadlines, weekends, vacations).

Counter:

• Cost math: 1 hour mitigation planning now vs 10 hours firefighting later
• Reactive timing: Incidents don't wait for convenient times - they hit during sprints, before demos, on Friday evenings
• Level 2 requirement: Mitigation plan for high-probability or high-impact risks BEFORE acceptance
• Question: "Do you have 10 hours next week to drop everything and firefight this risk if it materializes?"

Red flags: "We'll handle it", "If it happens", "Cross that bridge when we come to it"

"Risks Haven't Materialized" (Complacency)

Detection: "4 months in, no issues", "Original risks didn't hit", "We're good"

Why it's tempting: Past success validates approach, monitoring feels wasteful

Why it fails: Risks evolve throughout project lifecycle. Absence of risks to-date ≠ absence of future risks. Complacency before late-stage crunch (integration, final testing, deployment).

Counter:

• Lifecycle risk evolution: Early risks (requirements, team ramp-up) vs late risks (integration, tech debt, timeline crunch)
• Month 4 of 6: Integration testing, timeline pressure, technical debt, scope control
• Level 3 requirement: Scheduled risk reviews, not set-and-forget
• New risks emerge, probabilities shift, priorities change

Red flags: "No problems yet", "We're on track", "Monitoring feels like overhead"

"Process Feels Like Bureaucracy"

Detection: "Overhead", "Red tape", "Meetings for meetings' sake", "We want to code"

Why it's tempting: Team wants to deliver, documentation feels unproductive

Why it fails: Lightweight process prevents heavyweight problems. 30 min planning saves hours of firefighting. Process ≠ bureaucracy.

Counter:

• Process vs bureaucracy: Process has ROI (30 min → saves hours). Bureaucracy has no ROI (forms for forms' sake).
• Lightweight governance: 20-min ADR, 30-min risk session, 15-min risk review
• Cost comparison: 30 min process now vs 10+ hours crisis later
• Question: "Would you rather spend 30 minutes planning or 10 hours firefighting next month?"

Red flags: "Bureaucracy", "Overhead", "Red tape", "Slows us down"

"We're Tired / Under Pressure"

Detection: "Just finished major release", "Deadline is tight", "Team exhausted"

Why it's tempting: Exhaustion and deadlines are real, shortcuts feel necessary

Why it fails: Shortcuts under pressure create more pressure later. Technical debt compounds into crisis. Skipping governance creates future exhaustion.

Counter:

• Compound effect: Skipping governance now creates 3x more work later
• Pressure math: 2 hours deadline pressure now vs 10+ hours crisis pressure later
• When you're exhausted is exactly when you need process (prevents mistakes)
• Question: "Will skipping governance make the NEXT deadline easier or harder?"

Red flags: "We're exhausted", "Too busy", "Under pressure", "Just this once"

"We'll Document Later"

Detection: "After we ship", "When we have time", "In the next sprint"

Why it's tempting: Defers effort, focuses on delivery now

Why it fails: "Later" never comes. Context is lost immediately. Future maintainers suffer.

Counter:

• Historical pattern: "Later" has 5% success rate (documented fact)
• Context loss: Starts immediately, complete within 2 weeks
• Requirement: Documentation is part of "done", not optional follow-up
• Question: "When exactly is 'later'? Put it on the calendar now."

Red flags: "Later", "After we ship", "When we have time", "Eventually"

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Handling "My Project Is Special" Exceptions

Common exception requests:

• "We're a startup, need to move fast"
• "This is just an MVP/prototype"
• "We'll upgrade to proper governance after product-market fit"
• "Our team is experienced, we don't need process"
• "This project is different because..."

Why it's tempting: Context appears legitimately exceptional, constraints feel unique, team confidence is high

Why it fails: Every team thinks they're special. Startups fail from poor decisions as often as slow delivery. "MVP" and "prototype" often become production. "After product-market fit" never arrives.

Response framework:

1. Acknowledge the constraint: "Startup time pressure IS real, I understand the urgency"

2. Reframe governance as enabler: "Governance prevents the costly mistakes that kill startups - bad vendor choices, unmitigated risks, undocumented decisions that create chaos during scaling"

3. Offer Level 2 as minimum: "Not suggesting heavyweight process. Level 2 = 30-min risk session, ADRs for high-risk decisions only. That's ~2% overhead, not 20%."

4. Make exception criteria explicit:

   • Non-negotiable Level 2 minimum: Security-critical, customer-facing, financially-material, or >3 month projects
   • Level 1 acceptable: Internal prototype <2 weeks, single developer, throwaway code, no audit trail needed
   • Exception must be documented: If declaring Level 1, document why in project README

5. Show the math: "30 minutes planning vs 10+ hours crisis firefighting. Which timeline can your startup afford?"

Red flags indicating exception is rationalization, not legitimate:

• "Just this once" (it's never just once)
• "We'll add governance later" (later has 5% success rate)
• "Trust me, I've done this before" (past success ≠ future guarantee)
• Can't articulate specific criteria for when to upgrade governance

Non-negotiable boundaries:

• Customer-facing code: Minimum Level 2
• Financial transactions: Minimum Level 2
• Security-sensitive (PII, auth, payments): Minimum Level 2

• 3 month timeline: Minimum Level 2

• 5 developers: Minimum Level 3

Example response:

User: "We're a startup MVP, can we skip the ADRs?"

Agent: "I understand the pressure to move fast. Let's find the right balance:

Your MVP is customer-facing with payment processing → Level 2 minimum, not negotiable.

Level 2 = lightweight, not heavyweight:
- ADRs for high-risk decisions only (database, payment gateway, auth provider)
- 30-min risk session (identify risks, plan mitigation for top 3)
- Total overhead: ~2% of project time

This prevents the mistakes that kill MVPs:
- Wrong payment provider → costly migration mid-growth
- No auth security planning → breach before Series A
- Undocumented decisions → chaos when scaling team

ROI: 2 hours planning saves 20+ hours crisis firefighting.

Can we start with risk identification? 30 minutes now."

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Reference Sheets

The following reference sheets provide detailed methodologies for specific governance domains. Load them on-demand when needed.

1. Decision Analysis & Resolution (DAR)

When to use: Making architectural decisions, evaluating alternatives, documenting choices

→ See dar-methodology.md

Covers:

• When ADRs are mandatory vs optional
• ADR template and examples
• Decision criteria frameworks
• Alternatives analysis process
• Decision matrix tools
• Authority bias resistance

2. Risk Management (RSKM)

When to use: Identifying risks, assessing probability/impact, planning mitigation, monitoring risks

→ See rskm-methodology.md

Covers:

• Risk identification techniques
• Probability × Impact matrix
• Risk mitigation strategies (avoid, transfer, mitigate, accept)
• Risk register template
• Monitoring and review cadence
• Risk triggers for ad-hoc reviews

3. Templates and Examples

When to use: Need concrete templates for ADRs or risk registers

→ See templates.md

Covers:

• ADR template (lightweight and comprehensive)
• Risk register format
• Decision matrix template
• Real-world examples

4. Level 2→3→4 Scaling

When to use: Understanding appropriate governance rigor for project tier

→ See level-scaling.md

Covers:

• Level 2 baseline practices
• Level 3 organizational standards
• Level 4 quantitative management
• When to escalate or de-escalate rigor

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Common Mistakes

Mistake	Why It Fails	Better Approach
"Obvious" decisions undocumented	Context loss in 6 months, assumptions not validated	Level 3: Document all architectural decisions, even "obvious" ones
Alternatives analysis after commitment	Analysis becomes validation theater	Evaluate alternatives BEFORE authority/consensus input
Risk acceptance without mitigation	Reactive firefighting costs 3-10x	Mitigation plan required for high-probability or high-impact risks
Set-and-forget risk planning	Risks evolve, complacency before late-stage crunch	Scheduled reviews based on project length
Deferring to authority without analysis	Authority bias, vendor relationships create blind spots	Independent analysis first, authority input second
Sunk cost justifies decision	Small sunk cost vs large future cost	Name the fallacy, calculate future cost
"We'll document later"	"Later" never comes (5% success rate)	Documentation = part of "done"

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Integration with Other Skills

When You're Doing	Also Use	For
Creating ADRs	design-and-build	Technical decision criteria
Risk identification for security	ordis-security-architect	Security-specific risk techniques
Decision analysis with data	quantitative-management	Quantitative decision criteria
Requirements with risks	requirements-lifecycle	Risk-driven requirements prioritization

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Real-World Impact

Without this skill: Teams experience:

• "Obvious" decisions become mysterious (context loss)
• Authority bias and groupthink (bad decisions)
• Reactive firefighting (3-10x cost)
• No risk mitigation (crisis mode when risks materialize)
• Documentation never happens ("later")

With this skill: Teams achieve:

• Documented decisions with rationale (knowledge retention)
• Independent alternatives analysis (better decisions)
• Proactive risk mitigation (prevent crisis)
• Ongoing risk monitoring (adapt to changing conditions)
• Governance as lightweight process (ROI-positive)

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Next Steps

1. Determine project level: Check CLAUDE.md or ask user for CMMI target level (default: Level 3)
2. Identify situation: Use Quick Reference table to find applicable framework
3. Load reference sheet: Read detailed methodology (DAR or RSKM)
4. Enforce requirements: Level 3 requires ADRs for all architectural decisions, risk mitigation for high risks
5. Counter rationalizations: Use anti-pattern catalog to address shortcuts
6. Provide templates: Lightweight ADR or risk register to reduce friction
7. Calculate ROI: Show cost comparison (30 min planning vs 10+ hours firefighting)

Remember: Proactive governance prevents costly reactive firefighting. Documentation and risk management are investments with 3-10x returns.