Prediction-Market Trading Doctrine

Hard-won operational knowledge from a live Kalshi campaign (Aug–Sep 2026: crypto/commodity maker ladders, regime tilts, tennis dust vacuum — all falsified honestly, infrastructure open-sourced). Reference implementation: https://github.com/agiprolabs/kalshi-stack. Complements prediction-market-strategy (edge selection/sizing) — this skill covers the OPERATIONAL side: validating, executing, and killing strategies against a live venue without losing more than the lesson costs.

The prime directive

Every strategy decision is evidence-gated: backtest → paper → live micro-probe → ratchet. Each stage has a PRE-DECLARED kill condition with correctly calibrated probability math, written down BEFORE the data arrives. When a threshold turns out miscalibrated, correct it openly and re-declare — never silently move a goalpost in either direction.

Backtest hygiene (each rule was violated once, expensively)