Startup Validator Skill

Evaluate startup ideas with proven validation frameworks, not optimism.

<when_to_use>

Situation	Example
Idea validation	Evaluate a new startup concept
Before fundraising	Identify weaknesses before pitching
Pivot decisions	Continue current direction vs pivot
Competitive review	Compare your position vs competitors
PMF check	Assess Product-Market Fit readiness

/startup-validator AI-based education service
/startup-validator subscription healthcare app
/startup-validator crawling-based purchasing automation

Output: total score (100) + 7-question analysis + weakness diagnosis + improvement roadmap.

</when_to_use>

<argument_validation>

If $ARGUMENTS is missing, ask immediately:

"Which startup idea should we validate?

Examples:
- 'AI-based education service'
- 'Subscription healthcare app'
- 'B2B SaaS marketing automation'"

</argument_validation>

<validation_frameworks>

Core Validation Frameworks

1. Peter Thiel's 7 Questions (Zero to One)

#	Question	Evaluation criteria	Points
1. Engineering	Can you build a 10x better technology, not incremental improvement?	Disruptive vs incremental	15
2. Timing	Is now the right time for this business?	Market maturity, regulation, tech readiness	10
3. Monopoly	Do you start with high share in a small market?	Niche focus vs broad diffusion	15
4. People	Do you have the right team?	Founder-market fit	10
5. Distribution	Do you have a way to deliver and sell the product?	Channels, GTM strategy	15
6. Durability	Is it defensible in 10-20 years?	Moat durability	15
7. Secret	Did you discover a non-obvious opportunity?	Unique insight	20

Source: Zero to One

2. Y Combinator PMF Indicators (Michael Seibel)

Indicator	Description	Check
Demand pressure	Demand/usage outpaces ability to supply	☐
Organic growth	40-60% from word of mouth	☐
Support overload	Customer requests become hard to handle	☐
User pain on downtime	Users react strongly when unavailable	☐
Repeat usage	Core metric shows frequent repeat behavior	☐

Pre-PMF checklist:

Is this a "hair-on-fire" problem?
Would users adopt even a rough v1 from a tiny team?
Are customers paying (or clearly willing to pay)?

Source: Y Combinator Library

3. The Mom Test (Rob Fitzpatrick)

Three core rules:

Rule	Better question	Bad question
Focus on customer life	"How did you solve this last time?"	"Would you use our product?"
Ask about past behavior	"When was the last time you did X?"	"How often do you usually do X?"
Listen more than talk	silence and probing	long product pitch

Bad data to reject:

Empty praise ("Great idea")
Hypothetical language ("I might use it")
Feature wishlists without commitment

Source: The Mom Test Summary

4. Customer Development (Steve Blank)

Stage	Key question	Evidence
Customer Discovery	Is the problem real?	10+ interviews
Customer Validation	Is acquisition repeatable/scalable?	5+ paying customers
Customer Creation	Can demand be generated systematically?	Organic growth signal
Company Building	Can the company operationalize growth?	Defined process

Source: Steve Blank

5. JTBD Validation (Clayton Christensen)

Forces of Progress:

For change:
- PUSH: pain in current situation
- PULL: attraction of new solution

Against change:
- HABIT: inertia of current behavior
- ANXIETY: fear of switching

Decision signal: Push + Pull > Habit + Anxiety

Source: Christensen Institute

6. Lean Canvas Critical Checks

Block	Validation question	Risk level
Problem	Are the top 3 problems real?	High
Customer Segments	Are early adopters clearly defined?	High
UVP	Can differentiation be explained in one sentence?	High
Solution	Can it be validated with MVP scope?	Medium
Channels	Is there a practical acquisition path?	Medium
Revenue Streams	Will users pay?	High
Cost Structure	Do unit economics work?	Medium
Key Metrics	Is one critical metric defined?	Medium
Unfair Advantage	Is there something hard to copy?	High

Source: Lean Canvas

</validation_frameworks>

<scoring_system>

Scoring System

Total score (100)

Area	Weight	Rule
Thiel 7 questions	100	Based on table above
PMF readiness bonus	+10	If 3 or more PMF checks pass
Critical-risk penalty	-10 each	For each unresolved critical weakness

Grade bands

Grade	Score	Verdict	Next step
S	90+	Execute now	Full commitment, fundraising ready
A	80-89	Strong	Patch weaknesses and proceed
B	70-79	Promising	More validation required
C	60-69	Needs rethink	Consider pivot
D	50-59	Risky	Fundamental redesign
F	<50	Stop recommended	Explore alternatives

Weakness severity

Level	Meaning	Action
Critical	Failure likely if unresolved	Fix immediately
Major	Likely growth bottleneck	Fix within 6 months
Minor	Improvement opportunity	Lower priority

</scoring_system>

Phase	Task	Tool	Required check
0	Input check	-	Validate ARGUMENT
1	Understand idea	Sequential Thinking (3)	Extract 3 core hypotheses
2	Analyze 7 questions	Parallel Task x3	Score + evidence for each question
3	Validate PMF/JTBD	Sequential Thinking (5)	Forces analysis + PMF checklist
4	Final assessment	Sequential Thinking (3)	Total score + grade + weakness map
5	Improvement roadmap	Sequential Thinking (3)	Prioritized actions
6	Save output	Write	`.hypercore/validation-results/`

Phase 1: Extract core hypotheses

Sequential Thinking:
  thought 1: define idea in one sentence
  thought 2: value hypothesis - do customers want this?
  thought 3: growth hypothesis - can this scale?

Phase 2: Parallel 7-question analysis

Task({ subagent_type: 'analyst', model: 'sonnet',
       prompt: 'Analyze Thiel Q1-2-3 (Engineering, Timing, Monopoly) with scores and evidence' })
Task({ subagent_type: 'analyst', model: 'sonnet',
       prompt: 'Analyze Thiel Q4-5 (People, Distribution) with scores and evidence' })
Task({ subagent_type: 'analyst', model: 'sonnet',
       prompt: 'Analyze Thiel Q6-7 (Durability, Secret) with scores and evidence' })

Phase 3: Forces of Progress

Sequential Thinking:
  thought 1: PUSH - pain in status quo
  thought 2: PULL - attractiveness of new solution
  thought 3: HABIT - inertia of current behavior
  thought 4: ANXIETY - switching risks
  thought 5: estimate switching probability from force balance

Phase 4: Final scoring

Sequential Thinking:
  thought 1: compute total 7-question score
  thought 2: evaluate PMF bonus
  thought 3: identify critical weaknesses and penalties
  thought 4: decide final grade

<result_structure>

Section	Content
Header	date, idea name, total score/grade
1. Executive summary	one-line verdict + top strengths/weaknesses
2. Thiel 7-question analysis	per-question score + detailed rationale
3. PMF readiness	checklist + Forces analysis
4. Weakness diagnosis	severity classification + evidence
5. Improvement roadmap	immediate / 30-day / 90-day actions
6. Go/No-Go	final recommendation

Question analysis format

### Q1. Engineering (10x technology) - [X]/15

**Current state**: ...
**10x benchmark**: ...
**Scoring rationale**: ...
**Improvement direction**: ...

Weakness diagnosis format

### [Critical] Weakness 1: [Title]

**Current state**: ...
**Risk if unresolved**: ...
**Fix**: ...
**Required resources**: ...

Roadmap format

## Immediate (This Week)
1. [Action] - [Goal] - [Owner]

## Within 30 Days
1. [Action] - [Goal] - [Owner]

## Within 90 Days
1. [Action] - [Goal] - [Owner]

</result_structure>

/startup-validator crawling-based purchasing automation

Phase 1:
  - Core idea: AI crawls commerce products and automates buying workflows
  - Value hypothesis: purchasing agents suffer from manual workload
  - Growth hypothesis: 10x throughput leads to scalable revenue

Phase 2 (parallel):
  Q1 Engineering: 8/15
  Q2 Timing: 9/10
  Q3 Monopoly: 12/15
  Q4 People: 7/10
  Q5 Distribution: 10/15
  Q6 Durability: 8/15
  Q7 Secret: 12/20

Phase 3:
  PUSH: high manual pain
  PULL: high automation benefit
  HABIT: medium inertia
  ANXIETY: low to medium transition concern

Phase 4:
  total: 66/100 -> Grade C
  critical weakness: platform policy dependency
  major weakness: weak 10x technical moat

Saved: .hypercore/validation-results/00.purchasing-automation.md

Item	Required
ARGUMENT	Ask immediately if missing
Phase 1	Three hypotheses (one-line core/value/growth)
Phase 2	All 7 questions scored with evidence
Phase 3	All four forces + PMF checklist
Phase 4	Total score + grade + severity map
Phase 5	Immediate/30-day/90-day roadmap
Save	`.hypercore/validation-results/`

Forbidden
Start without ARGUMENT
Analyze only part of the 7 questions
Provide only qualitative judgment without scoring
Provide only positive review without weaknesses
Criticize without actionable improvements
End without saving output

<synergy_with_genius_thinking>

Workflow with `genius-thinking`

Step	Skill	Goal
1	`/genius-thinking`	Generate 10+ ideas
2	`/startup-validator`	Strictly validate top candidates
3	Final selection	Choose highest-scoring direction

/genius-thinking AI healthcare startup ideas

/startup-validator [idea 1]
/startup-validator [idea 2]
/startup-validator [idea 3]

</synergy_with_genius_thinking>

Core frameworks:

Zero to One: Peter Thiel notes
Thiel 7 questions: reference
PMF: Y Combinator
Michael Seibel PMF notes: YC blog

Validation methods:

The Mom Test: summary
Customer Development: Steve Blank
Lean Canvas: Ash Maurya
JTBD: Christensen Institute

Additional reading:

startup-validator