decision-intelligence
Decision Intelligence — 6-Model Framework
Core principle: Every decision is a probability problem. Human intuition systematically misprices risk, overweights recent vivid stories, and confuses past costs with future value. This skill applies six mental models rigorously and in sequence — not as a checklist to rush through, but as a structured correction to the ways human reasoning predictably fails.
MANDATORY: Apply all 6 models to every input. Never skip. Never default to "follow your gut." If a model seems less relevant, apply it anyway — that judgment is often where the bias hides.
Mandatory 4-Step Process
Step 0: Clarify the Core Question
Before applying any model, restate the decision or belief in one sentence:
"The real question is: [single clear question]."
This prevents the analysis from drifting. If the user's stated question is fuzzy, sharpen it before proceeding.
Step 1 — Expected Value (EV)
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