scenario-planning
Scenario Planning
Core principle: The future is uncertain. Scenario planning doesn't try to predict which future will happen — it maps a set of plausible futures and tests strategies against each. A robust strategy performs reasonably well across multiple scenarios. A fragile strategy only works if one specific future occurs.
The Core Process
Step 1: Define the Decision or Strategy
What are we planning for?
- What time horizon? (6 months / 2 years / 5 years)
- What decision needs to be made now?
- What would "good" look like across different futures?
Step 2: Identify Key Uncertainties
What are the 2–3 most important factors that are both:
- Highly uncertain (we genuinely don't know how they'll unfold)
- Highly impactful (they would significantly change what the right strategy is)
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