Reasoning Orchestrator

CRITICAL: This skill does NOT perform any reasoning itself. It plans and delegates. All reasoning is done by reading and applying individual skill files, or by spawning subagents. Do not shortcut by reasoning inline.

How to Execute This Skill

Follow these steps exactly, in order. Do not skip steps. Do not collapse steps.

STEP 1 — Triage (do this yourself, no skill file needed)

Classify the situation across these dimensions and write the classification out loud before proceeding:

Temporal direction: Forward-looking / Present-state / Backward-looking

Problem maturity:

Unframed — the problem itself may not be correctly defined
Framed, unsolved — problem understood, solution not found
Solved, needs validation — solution exists, needs stress-testing
Decided, needs learning — something happened, extract signal

Primary obstacle:

Don't understand the system → diagnostic track
Understand it, stuck on solutions → generative track
Have solutions, need to choose → convergence track
Something went wrong → retrospective track
About to commit to something → adversarial track
Don't know what we don't know → epistemic track

Domain complexity (if unclear, assign unknown and include cynefin-framework in Step 2):

Clear / Complicated / Complex / Chaotic / Unknown

Write the triage output in this format before moving to Step 2:

TRIAGE
Temporal: [forward / present / backward]
Maturity: [label]
Obstacle: [label] → [track]
Domain: [label]

STEP 2 — Build the Execution Plan (do this yourself, no skill file needed)

Using the triage output and the routing table below, produce a numbered execution plan. Label each step as SEQUENTIAL or PARALLEL. Do not execute anything yet.

Routing table — entry points by obstacle:

Obstacle	Execution plan
Don't know what we're dealing with	PARALLEL: epistemic-mapping ∥ cynefin-framework ∥ cognitive-bias-detection → re-triage
Don't understand the system / why it's failing	PARALLEL: systems-thinking ∥ theory-of-constraints ∥ causal-inference → SEQUENTIAL: five-whys-root-cause → decision-synthesis
Plan / design needs validation	PARALLEL: inversion-premortem ∥ red-teaming ∥ second-order-thinking → SEQUENTIAL: cognitive-bias-detection → decision-synthesis
Stuck, all solutions feel the same	SEQUENTIAL: epistemic-mapping → PARALLEL: lateral-thinking ∥ analogical-thinking ∥ first-principles-thinking → SEQUENTIAL: inversion-premortem → decision-synthesis
Need to decide between options (comparing A vs B vs C)	PARALLEL: scenario-planning ∥ probabilistic-thinking ∥ fermi-estimation → decision-synthesis
Single decision, estimable odds, bias likely active (sunk cost / survivorship / gut vs math)	SEQUENTIAL: decision-intelligence → decision-synthesis
Financial bet or investment sizing	SEQUENTIAL: decision-intelligence (Kelly Criterion — only skill covering position sizing)
Something went wrong / post-mortem	SEQUENTIAL: retrospective-counterfactual → PARALLEL: five-whys-root-cause ∥ causal-inference → SEQUENTIAL: cognitive-bias-detection
Long-term strategic commitment	PARALLEL: epistemic-mapping ∥ cognitive-bias-detection ∥ cynefin-framework → PARALLEL: scenario-planning ∥ probabilistic-thinking ∥ fermi-estimation → SEQUENTIAL: decision-intelligence → PARALLEL: inversion-premortem ∥ red-teaming ∥ second-order-thinking → SEQUENTIAL: stakeholder-power-mapping → decision-synthesis
Blocked / people won't adopt	PARALLEL: stakeholder-power-mapping ∥ second-order-thinking ∥ causal-inference → decision-synthesis

Write the plan in this format:

EXECUTION PLAN
Step 1 — PARALLEL: [skill-a] ∥ [skill-b] ∥ [skill-c]
Step 2 — SEQUENTIAL: [skill-d]
Step 3 — PARALLEL: [skill-e] ∥ [skill-f]
Step 4 — SEQUENTIAL: [skill-g]

STEP 3 — Execute the Plan (step by step, never all at once)

Work through the execution plan one step at a time. For each step:

For a SEQUENTIAL step:

Read the skill file:
```
view: skills/[skill-name]/SKILL.md
```
Apply the skill to the current problem context, following the methodology in that file exactly
Write the output in the skill's output format

Write the routing decision:

STEP [N] COMPLETE — SEQUENTIAL: [skill-name]
Key finding: [1–2 sentences]
Routing to Step [N+1]: [reason based on finding]

Proceed to the next step

For a PARALLEL step:

Spawn one subagent per skill using the Task tool. Each subagent receives:
- The full problem description
- Any findings from prior sequential steps
- This instruction: "Read skills/[skill-name]/SKILL.md then apply that skill's full methodology to the problem. Output your findings in that skill's output format. Do not perform other reasoning."
Wait for all subagents to complete

Synthesize their outputs:

SYNTHESIS — Step [N] PARALLEL: [skill-a] ∥ [skill-b] ∥ [skill-c]

Convergent findings (2+ skills agree — higher confidence):
- [finding]

Divergent findings (1 skill only — worth noting):
- [finding] (from [skill])

Contradictions (skills disagree — resolve before proceeding):
- [skill-a] says [X], [skill-b] says [Y] → resolution: [...]

Key inputs for Step [N+1]: [what the next step needs]

Proceed to the next step

STEP 4 — Terminate

Stop when any of these conditions are met:

decision-synthesis has completed and produced a decision with acceptable confidence
The problem is understood well enough to act without further analysis
If 4+ steps have run without converging: stop, flag the problem as likely unframed, restart from Step 1 with epistemic-mapping as the only entry point

Write the termination output:

CHAIN COMPLETE
Steps executed: [list with SEQUENTIAL/PARALLEL labels]
Key finding: [1–2 sentences]
Recommended action: [what to do now]

Parallelization Reference

These five clusters are the canonical parallel groups. Skills within a cluster apply independent lenses and never depend on each other's output.

Pattern	Skills	Use when
P1 — Adversarial	inversion-premortem ∥ red-teaming ∥ second-order-thinking	Validating a plan before commitment
P2 — Generative	lateral-thinking ∥ analogical-thinking ∥ first-principles-thinking	Stuck, need new options
P3 — Diagnostic	systems-thinking ∥ theory-of-constraints ∥ causal-inference	System is failing, need to understand why
P4 — Uncertainty	scenario-planning ∥ probabilistic-thinking ∥ fermi-estimation	Decision needs quantification
P5 — Meta-cognitive	epistemic-mapping ∥ cognitive-bias-detection ∥ cynefin-framework	Clean the reasoning environment first

Post-Step Routing Reference

After completing any step, use this table to adjust the plan if findings warrant it:

Completed skill	Finding	Adjust plan to include
epistemic-mapping	Dangerous assumptions found	first-principles-thinking (sequential, next)
cynefin-framework	Domain = Complex	lateral-thinking ∥ scenario-planning (parallel) instead of structured analysis
cynefin-framework	Domain = Chaotic	Act immediately; retrospective-counterfactual after stabilization
systems-thinking	Bottleneck identified	theory-of-constraints (sequential)
five-whys-root-cause	Root cause is causal claim	causal-inference (sequential)
five-whys-root-cause	Multiple root causes	decision-synthesis (sequential, to prioritize)
adversarial panel (P1)	High-severity risks	cognitive-bias-detection on the risk analysis (sequential)
generative panel (P2)	All options weak	epistemic-mapping — frame may be wrong (sequential, restart)
uncertainty panel (P4)	High uncertainty persists	inversion-premortem on worst-case scenario (sequential)
decision-synthesis	Key assumption too uncertain	epistemic-mapping → validate before committing
decision-intelligence	Probability estimates feel shaky	fermi-estimation ∥ probabilistic-thinking first, then re-run
decision-intelligence	Decision confirmed, options remain open	decision-synthesis to land the final call
retrospective-counterfactual	Systemic cause found	systems-thinking ∥ five-whys-root-cause (parallel)

Skill Registry

Skill	File path	Parallelizes with
epistemic-mapping	skills/epistemic-mapping/SKILL.md	cynefin-framework, cognitive-bias-detection
cynefin-framework	skills/cynefin-framework/SKILL.md	epistemic-mapping, cognitive-bias-detection
systems-thinking	skills/systems-thinking/SKILL.md	theory-of-constraints, causal-inference
theory-of-constraints	skills/theory-of-constraints/SKILL.md	systems-thinking, causal-inference
five-whys-root-cause	skills/five-whys-root-cause/SKILL.md	causal-inference
causal-inference	skills/causal-inference/SKILL.md	systems-thinking, five-whys-root-cause
cognitive-bias-detection	skills/cognitive-bias-detection/SKILL.md	epistemic-mapping, cynefin-framework
inversion-premortem	skills/inversion-premortem/SKILL.md	red-teaming, second-order-thinking
red-teaming	skills/red-teaming/SKILL.md	inversion-premortem, second-order-thinking
second-order-thinking	skills/second-order-thinking/SKILL.md	inversion-premortem, red-teaming
probabilistic-thinking	skills/probabilistic-thinking/SKILL.md	scenario-planning, fermi-estimation
fermi-estimation	skills/fermi-estimation/SKILL.md	probabilistic-thinking, scenario-planning
scenario-planning	skills/scenario-planning/SKILL.md	probabilistic-thinking, fermi-estimation
stakeholder-power-mapping	skills/stakeholder-power-mapping/SKILL.md	second-order-thinking, causal-inference
lateral-thinking	skills/lateral-thinking/SKILL.md	analogical-thinking, first-principles-thinking
analogical-thinking	skills/analogical-thinking/SKILL.md	lateral-thinking, first-principles-thinking
first-principles-thinking	skills/first-principles-thinking/SKILL.md	lateral-thinking, analogical-thinking
decision-synthesis	skills/decision-synthesis/SKILL.md	runs after all others
decision-intelligence	skills/decision-intelligence/SKILL.md	probabilistic-thinking, fermi-estimation, scenario-planning
retrospective-counterfactual	skills/retrospective-counterfactual/SKILL.md	five-whys-root-cause, causal-inference

reasoning-orchestrator