Systems Thinking Evaluation Skill

Apply a rigorous systems lens to evaluate what's working, what isn't, and why in any system — technical, organizational, product, or process.

When to Use This Skill

Trigger this skill whenever the user asks you to:

Evaluate or assess a system, product, process, strategy, or architecture
Understand why something isn't working as expected
Identify bottlenecks, failure points, or risks
Suggest where to intervene for the most impact
Review a design or plan before execution

Core Mental Models to Apply

1. Identify the System Boundary

What's inside the system (in scope)?
What's outside (environment, dependencies, constraints)?
Where does the system begin and end?

2. Stocks and Flows

Stocks: What accumulates over time? (users, debt, trust, knowledge, bugs, revenue)
Flows: What increases or decreases those stocks? (acquisition, churn, learning, entropy)
Where are flows blocked, broken, or leaking?

3. Feedback Loops

Reinforcing loops (R): Self-amplifying dynamics — virtuous cycles or vicious spirals
- Example: More users → more content → more users (growth flywheel)
- Example: More bugs → less trust → fewer contributors → more bugs
Balancing loops (B): Self-correcting dynamics — goal-seeking behaviors
- Example: High load → auto-scale → stable performance
- Example: User complaints → support → resolution → satisfaction
Ask: Which loops dominate the system's current behavior?

4. Delays

Where are there time lags between cause and effect?
Delays often cause oscillation, overcorrection, or invisible failures
Example: Hiring takes 3 months → team overloads → burnout → more attrition

5. System Archetypes (common failure patterns)

Match observed behavior to known archetypes:

Archetype	Pattern	Signal
Limits to Growth	Growth hits a constraint and stalls	Plateau despite investment
Fixes that Fail	Quick fix creates new problems	Recurring issues after "solutions"
Shifting the Burden	Symptomatic fixes erode fundamental ones	Team always firefighting
Tragedy of the Commons	Shared resources are depleted	Quality/performance degrades over time
Escalation	Competing actors amplify each other	Bidding wars, arms races
Drifting Goals	Performance gap closed by lowering standards	"Good enough" keeps declining
Accidental Adversaries	Well-meaning actors undermine each other	Misaligned incentives between teams

6. Leverage Points

Rank interventions by impact (from lowest to highest leverage):

Numbers (parameters, budgets, quotas) — low leverage
Buffer sizes and stock capacities
Flow rates and delays
Feedback loop strength
Information flows (who has access to what, when)
Rules and incentives
Goals of the system
Power to change the system's structure
Mindsets and paradigms — highest leverage

Evaluation Output Format

When evaluating a system, structure the response as follows:

🟢 Where the System Works

Identify functioning feedback loops, healthy stocks, aligned incentives
Call out genuine strengths (not to be polite — to understand what to protect)

🔴 Where the System Breaks Down

Point to broken loops, leaking flows, missing feedback, or misaligned incentives
For each issue, name the archetype if one applies
Identify delays that hide the problem

⚠️ Key Risks and Failure Modes

What could cause the system to tip into a bad equilibrium?
What reinforcing loop could go negative?
What constraint will be hit next?

🎯 High-Leverage Interventions

Ranked list of where to intervene
For each: what changes, what loop or flow it affects, expected result
Flag quick fixes that might backfire (Fixes that Fail archetype)

📊 System Diagram (optional, when helpful)

Describe or sketch a causal loop diagram in text:

[Variable A] → (+) [Variable B] → (+) [Variable A]  ← Reinforcing loop R1
[Variable A] → (+) [Variable C] → (-) [Variable A]  ← Balancing loop B1

Tone and Approach

Be direct about what's broken — systems evaluation is not diplomacy
Use concrete examples tied to the user's specific context
Prioritize systemic causes over symptoms — don't just describe what's wrong, explain why the system produces that outcome
When a problem "keeps coming back," suspect a reinforcing loop or Shifting the Burden archetype
Always suggest at least one high-leverage intervention — not just diagnosis

Example Application Triggers

"Evaluate our onboarding funnel" → apply stocks/flows to conversion, identify where users leak out and why
"Why does our team keep missing deadlines?" → look for delays, Shifting the Burden, workload dynamics
"Is this architecture scalable?" → identify capacity limits, balancing loops under load, missing circuit breakers
"Assess our growth strategy" → find reinforcing flywheels, limits to growth constraints, escalation risks
"What's wrong with our deploy process?" → trace flow from commit to production, find delays, balancing loops
"Should we change our pricing model?" → map revenue stocks, customer feedback loops, competitive dynamics

systems-thinking