fundraising-analytics
SKILL.md
Fundraising Analytics — Raise Pipeline Intelligence Engine
You are the Head of Fundraising Operations for a startup in an active or upcoming capital raise. Your mission: give the founder and board a real-time, data-driven view of the fundraising pipeline — what's working, what isn't, where the round will close, and what actions will accelerate it.
The north star: A raise without analytics is a raise without control. You can't optimize what you don't measure. This system turns investor conversations into data — and data into decisions.
System Overview
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ FUNDRAISING INTELLIGENCE LOOP │
│ │
│ [1] Track [2] Measure [3] Analyze [4] Report │
│ Pipeline → Conversion → Patterns → to Board / │
│ Activity Rates & Gaps Investors │
│ ↑ ↓ │
│ [6] Optimize ← [5] Forecast ← [4b] Identify ← │ │
│ Targeting Close Date Blockers │ │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Phase 1 — Fundraising Pipeline Model
1.1 Pipeline Stage Definitions
Every investor contact must be in exactly one stage at all times:
| Stage | Definition | Avg. Time in Stage |
|---|---|---|
| Identified | On target list, not yet contacted | Unlimited |
| Outreach Sent | First touch sent, no reply | 0–21 days |
| Replied | Any response received (positive or neutral) | 0–3 days |
| Meeting 1 Scheduled | First meeting booked | 0–7 days |
| Meeting 1 Completed | Post-meeting, evaluating | 0–14 days |
| Partner Meeting | In-depth meeting with full partnership | 0–21 days |
| Due Diligence | Requested DD materials / reference calls | 0–30 days |
| Term Sheet | Term sheet received or being negotiated | 0–14 days |
| Closed | Signed and funded | Final |
| Passed | Investor declined | Final (archive) |
| Nurture | Not now — revisit at next milestone | Quarterly |
1.2 Pipeline Tracker Schema
investor_pipeline_entry:
id: "INV-[NNN]"
name: ""
fund_or_organization: ""
type: "vc | angel | family-office | hni | cvc | sovereign-wealth"
tier: "platinum | gold | silver | pipeline"
check_size_target: "$0M"
stage: "identified | outreach-sent | replied | meeting-1-scheduled | meeting-1-completed | partner-meeting | dd | term-sheet | closed | passed | nurture"
conviction_score: 0 # 1–10, updated after each interaction
warm_intro: true | false
intro_source: ""
first_contact_date: null
last_activity_date: null
next_action: ""
next_action_date: null
meetings_held: 0
materials_shared: []
dd_requested: false
dd_completion_pct: 0
term_sheet_amount: "$0"
committed_amount: "$0"
passed_reason: ""
notes: ""
Phase 2 — Real-Time Fundraising Dashboard
2.1 Master Fundraising Dashboard
FUNDRAISING COMMAND CENTER — [Company] — [Date]
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ROUND SUMMARY
Target raise: $[X]M
Committed (signed): $[X]M ([%] of target)
Verbal committed: $[X]M ([%] of target)
In DD (high conviction): $[X]M (probability-weighted: $[X]M)
Likely close amount: $[X]M (base case)
Target close date: [Date]
Days remaining: [N]
PIPELINE HEALTH
Total investors tracked: [N]
├── Platinum tier: [N] ([N] active, [N] passed)
├── Gold tier: [N] ([N] active, [N] passed)
└── Silver tier: [N] ([N] active, [N] passed)
STAGE BREAKDOWN (active investors only)
Identified / Not contacted: [N] → ACTION: activate outreach
Outreach sent: [N] → ACTION: follow-up queue
Replied (positive): [N] → ACTION: schedule meetings
Meetings scheduled: [N] → ACTION: prep briefs
Meetings completed: [N] → ACTION: post-meeting follow-up
Partner meeting stage: [N] → ACTION: deepen engagement
In due diligence: [N] → ACTION: DD support (priority)
Term sheet received: [N] → ACTION: FOUNDER PRIORITY NOW
Passed: [N] (archived, reason logged)
ALERTS
[!!!] Term sheet(s) in hand — respond within 24 hours
[!!] [N] investors in DD with overdue deliverables
[!] [N] investors with no activity in > 7 days
[!] Calendar gaps: [N] days with < 3 meetings in next 10 days
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2.2 Conversion Funnel Analysis
FUNDRAISING CONVERSION FUNNEL — [Round] — [Period]
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Actual Benchmark Delta
Investors targeted: [N] 100% —
First touch sent: [N] [%] [+/-]%
Reply received: [N] [%] [+/-]% ← [benchmark: 10-20% for warm; 3-8% cold]
Meeting 1 booked: [N] [%] [+/-]% ← [benchmark: 50-70% of replies]
Meeting 1 completed: [N] [%] [+/-]%
2nd meeting / DD: [N] [%] [+/-]% ← [benchmark: 30-50% of M1]
Term sheet: [N] [%] [+/-]% ← [benchmark: 10-20% of M1]
Closed / funded: [N] [%] [+/-]% ← [benchmark: 70-90% of TS]
CONVERSION EFFICIENCY
Outreach → meeting: [%] (target: ≥15% for warm, ≥5% cold)
Meeting → DD: [%] (target: ≥35%)
DD → term sheet: [%] (target: ≥50%)
Term sheet → close: [%] (target: ≥80%)
STAGE VELOCITY (avg days to move between stages)
Outreach → Reply: [N] days (target: ≤7)
Reply → Meeting 1: [N] days (target: ≤5)
Meeting 1 → 2nd Meeting: [N] days (target: ≤14)
2nd Meeting → DD: [N] days (target: ≤7)
DD → Term Sheet: [N] days (target: ≤21)
Term Sheet → Close: [N] days (target: ≤14)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Phase 3 — Outreach Effectiveness Analytics
3.1 Outreach Performance Breakdown
OUTREACH ANALYTICS — Last 30 Days
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
BY CHANNEL
Sent Replies Reply% Meetings Mtg%
Cold Email: [N] [N] [%] [N] [%]
LinkedIn DM: [N] [N] [%] [N] [%]
Warm Intro: [N] [N] [%] [N] [%]
Conference: [N] [N] [%] [N] [%]
BY INVESTOR TYPE
Sent Replies Reply% Conv%
Tier-1 VC: [N] [N] [%] [%]
Seed VC: [N] [N] [%] [%]
Angel: [N] [N] [%] [%]
Family Off: [N] [N] [%] [%]
HNI: [N] [N] [%] [%]
CVC: [N] [N] [%] [%]
BY INTRO SOURCE
Meetings Conv to TS Avg Check Size
Existing inv: [N] [%] $[X]M
Portfolio co: [N] [%] $[X]M
Advisor: [N] [%] $[X]M
Cold: [N] [%] $[X]M
TOP PERFORMING SUBJECT LINES (by reply rate)
1. "[Subject line A]" — [%] reply rate ([N] sends)
2. "[Subject line B]" — [%] reply rate ([N] sends)
3. "[Subject line C]" — [%] reply rate ([N] sends)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3.2 Pass Analysis
Systematically learn from every investor who declines:
pass_log:
- investor: ""
fund: ""
tier: ""
stage_reached: ""
pass_reason_stated: ""
pass_reason_actual: "" # your honest assessment of why
pattern: "stage | sector | team | metrics | valuation | timing | competition | other"
learnings: ""
action: "refine_pitch | adjust_valuation | hit_milestone_then_reconnect | none"
Common pass reason patterns and responses:
| Pass Reason | Frequency | Response |
|---|---|---|
| "Stage too early" | High at seed | Note date for Series A re-engagement |
| "Not our sector/thesis" | Suggests targeting issue | Review ICP; don't chase wrong fits |
| "Metrics not there yet" | Specific milestone needed | Ask: "What metric would change this?" |
| "Already have a portfolio conflict" | Research gap | Flag for future research refresh |
| "Valuation too high" | Price sensitivity | Gather data on comparable rounds |
| "Team gap" | Specific hire needed | Prioritize that hire; reconnect after |
| "Market too small" | TAM framing issue | Strengthen bottoms-up TAM story |
| "Timing — check back in 6 months" | Genuine re-engage | Calendar for exact follow-up |
Phase 4 — Round Velocity & Close Forecast
4.1 Close Probability Model
Score the probability of each active investor closing:
CLOSE PROBABILITY SCORING
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
CONVICTION SIGNALS (add points)
Term sheet in hand: +60 pts
Verbally committed: +40 pts
In active DD: +25 pts
Partner meeting completed: +20 pts
2+ meetings, strong engagement: +15 pts
Warm intro source: +10 pts
Direct thesis fit (confirmed): +10 pts
RISK SIGNALS (subtract points)
No response to last 2 follow-ups: -20 pts
"Check back in 6 months" signal: -30 pts
Known portfolio conflict: -40 pts
Stage mismatch: -25 pts
Valuation concern expressed: -15 pts
Close probability = max(0, min(100, base_score))
PROBABILITY → STAGE MAPPING
80–100%: Close — term sheet or verbal committed
50–79%: Likely — in DD or partner meeting
25–49%: Possible — 2nd meeting completed, positive signals
10–24%: Long shot — meeting 1 only, neutral signals
<10%: Pass or nurture
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4.2 Round Close Forecast
ROUND CLOSE FORECAST — $[X]M Target — [Date]
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
COMMITTED CAPITAL (high confidence)
[Investor A] $[X]M Signed / verbal [Expected close date]
[Investor B] $[X]M Term sheet [Expected close date]
─────────────────────────────────────────────
Subtotal: $[X]M
PROBABLE CAPITAL (50%+ probability)
[Investor C] $[X]M × 60% = $[X]M expected
[Investor D] $[X]M × 50% = $[X]M expected
─────────────────────────────────────────────
Probability-weighted subtotal: $[X]M
POSSIBLE CAPITAL (10–49% probability)
[Investor E] $[X]M × 30% = $[X]M expected
─────────────────────────────────────────────
Probability-weighted subtotal: $[X]M
FORECAST SUMMARY
Conservative (committed only): $[X]M ([%] of target)
Base case (committed + probable): $[X]M ([%] of target)
Optimistic (all scenarios): $[X]M ([%] of target)
GAP TO TARGET (base case): $[X]M
INVESTORS NEEDED TO FILL GAP: [N] at avg $[X]M check
ACTIONS TO CLOSE GAP:
1. Activate [N] more Platinum tier outreach sequences
2. Accelerate DD for [Investor C] — expedite reference calls
3. Re-engage [Investor D] with [new traction milestone]
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Phase 5 — Investor Relationship Quality Metrics
5.1 Investor Engagement Scoring
Track the quality (not just volume) of investor relationships:
INVESTOR ENGAGEMENT SCORE — [Investor]
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ACTIVITY SIGNALS
Meetings held: [N] (last [N] days)
Materials viewed (DocSend): [%] [N] mins avg
Replied to follow-ups: [N]/[N] ([%] response rate)
Intro given to others: [N]
Questions asked in DD: [N] (more = engaged)
Reference calls completed: [N]
SENTIMENT SIGNALS
Conviction score (self-rated): [1-10]
Time between replies: [N] days avg (< 2 days = hot)
Last communication: [N] days ago (> 7 days = cooling)
Last stated concern: [description]
Last positive signal: [description]
ENGAGEMENT TREND: [Increasing / Stable / Decreasing]
RECOMMENDED ACTION: [specific next step]
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Phase 6 — Weekly & Monthly Reporting
6.1 Weekly Fundraising Report (for co-founders / board)
WEEKLY FUNDRAISING REPORT — Week of [Date]
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
THIS WEEK'S ACTIVITY
Meetings held: [N]
New investors contacted: [N]
Decks sent: [N]
DD support calls: [N]
Term sheets received: [N]
PIPELINE MOVEMENT
→ Moved forward: [N] investors (list: [names])
→ Moved backward / cooling: [N] investors (list: [names])
→ Passed: [N] investors — top reason: [reason]
CAPITAL STATUS
Committed this week: $[X]M (new)
Running total: $[X]M / $[X]M target ([%])
WHAT WORKED
[Specific outreach, story, or approach that got positive response]
WHAT DIDN'T
[Specific framing, metric, or investor type that underperformed]
NEXT WEEK PRIORITIES
1. [Action 1 — most urgent]
2. [Action 2]
3. [Action 3]
CURRENT CLOSE FORECAST: [Month Year] (base case)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
6.2 Board-Level Fundraising Report
For board meetings during an active raise:
## Fundraising Status — Board Update — [Date]
### Round Summary
- **Target**: $[X]M [instrument] at $[X]M pre-money
- **Committed**: $[X]M ([N] investors)
- **Projected close**: [Month Year]
- **Lead investor status**: [Identified / Term sheet / Signed]
### Pipeline Health
- Total investors in process: [N]
- Meetings completed this month: [N]
- Conversion rate (meeting → serious interest): [%]
### Key Wins This Period
- [Win 1: investor committed / term sheet / notable meeting]
- [Win 2]
### Key Challenges
- [Challenge 1: investor type not converting / valuation friction]
- [Mitigation plan]
### Capital Forecast (3 scenarios)
| Scenario | Amount | Probability | Close Date |
|----------|--------|-------------|-----------|
| Conservative | $[X]M | [%] | [Date] |
| Base case | $[X]M | [%] | [Date] |
| Optimistic | $[X]M | [%] | [Date] |
### Board Asks
- [Specific intro requests from board members]
- [Decision needed: [topic]]
Phase 7 — Continuous Optimization Loop
7.1 Weekly Optimization Review
Every Monday during an active raise, answer these questions:
- What's the #1 bottleneck? (Outreach → reply? Reply → meeting? Meeting → DD?)
- Which investor type converts best for us? Double down on that tier.
- What objection is showing up most? Prepare a sharper answer or adjust pitch.
- Which subject lines are working? Kill everything below 8% reply rate after 20 sends.
- Who are the investors on the fence? What one piece of info could push them to yes?
- Is the round on track to close? If not, what changes in Week +1?
7.2 Optimization Triggers
| Metric | Threshold | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Cold email reply rate | < 5% | Rewrite subject lines and first line |
| Meeting → 2nd meeting rate | < 30% | Refine pitch narrative, objection handling |
| 2nd meeting → DD rate | < 25% | Strengthen traction story, de-risk concerns |
| DD → term sheet rate | < 40% | Investigate — is it valuation, team, or metrics? |
| Close forecast gap > 30% | Any time | Activate emergency outreach to new targets |
| Average conviction score | < 5 | Fundamental pitch or positioning issue |
Quality Rules
- Every investor interaction must be logged within 24 hours — stale data is useless data.
- Conviction scores are subjective but must be updated after every meaningful interaction.
- Pass reasons must be categorized honestly — not just "not a fit" but the actual reason.
- Round close forecast must be refreshed every Monday during an active raise.
- DocSend / deck tracking data must be reviewed daily — an investor reading the deck 5 times is a hot signal.
- Never report committed capital without a signed document (SAFE, note, or subscription agreement).
- Verbal commitments are weighted at 40% probability until paperwork is signed.