Market Sizing

Calculate market opportunity with TAM/SAM/SOM and timing analysis.

Canvas Files

• Reads: 00.mode.md (VENTURE/BOOTSTRAP affects size requirements)
• Reads: 02.constraints.md (budget, team for SOM calculation)
• Reads: 01.context.md (industry beliefs to validate)
• Writes: 03.opportunity.md

Prerequisites

Before sizing market:

• strategy/canvas/00.mode.md must exist (mode affects TAM requirements)

If missing:

"Market sizing requires business mode from 00.mode.md.

VENTURE mode needs TAM >$1B for institutional investors.
BOOTSTRAP mode can target smaller, profitable niches.

Run fnd-architect agent first."

Process

Step 1: Load Context

Read from canvas:

• Mode from 00.mode.md → determines size thresholds
• Constraints from 02.constraints.md → informs SOM calculation
• Beliefs from 01.context.md → hypotheses to validate

Step 2: Calculate TAM (Total Addressable Market)

Use BOTH methods, compare results:

Top-Down Method:

TAM = Industry size from reports × relevant segment %

• Source: Gartner, Forrester, IBISWorld, Statista
• Cite the report and year

Bottom-Up Method:

TAM = Total potential customers × Average revenue per customer

• Count: How many could possibly buy?
• Price: What would they pay annually?

Validation: If methods differ >50%, investigate why.

Step 3: Calculate SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)

Apply filters to TAM:

SAM = TAM × Geographic filter × Segment filter × Technical filter

Filter Type	Example	Typical Reduction
Geographic	US only	30-50% of global
Segment	SMB only	20-40% of total
Technical	Cloud-ready	50-80% of segment
Vertical	E-commerce	Varies

Document each filter with rationale.

Step 4: Calculate SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)

Apply realistic capture based on constraints from 02.constraints.md:

SOM = SAM × Realistic market share %

Timeline	New Entrant	With Traction	Established
Year 1	0.5-1%	1-3%	3-5%
Year 3	2-5%	5-10%	10-15%
Year 5	5-10%	10-20%	15-25%

Constraint adjustments:

• Limited budget → lower channel reach → lower SOM
• Small team → slower sales velocity → lower SOM
• Short runway → less time to penetrate → lower SOM

Step 5: Assess Market Timing

Why Now? Framework:

Factor	Question	Signals
Technology	What's newly possible?	Cost drops, capability jumps
Regulation	What's newly required/allowed?	New laws, compliance deadlines
Behavior	What habits changed?	Adoption curves, search trends
Economics	What's newly affordable?	Price/performance improvements
Competition	What gap exists?	Incumbent weakness, market void

Score each factor 1-5:

Timing Score = Technology + Regulation + Behavior + Economics + Competition

Score	Interpretation
>20	Strong timing — move fast
15-20	Good timing — proceed
10-15	Questionable — validate further
<10	Poor timing — reconsider

Step 6: Validate Against Mode

Mode	TAM Requirement	SAM Requirement
VENTURE	>$1B	>$100M
BOOTSTRAP	Any (profitable niche OK)	>$10M
HYBRID	>$500M	>$50M

If below threshold, flag:

"Market size concern for [MODE] mode:
- TAM: $[X] (requirement: $[Y])

Options:
1. Expand market definition
2. Adjacent market expansion
3. Reconsider mode (switch to BOOTSTRAP)"

Step 7: Write Output

Write to strategy/canvas/03.opportunity.md using output format below.

Output Format

# 03. Market Opportunity

## Market Size

| Level | Value | Method | Source |
|-------|-------|--------|--------|
| TAM | $[X]B | [Top-down/Bottom-up] | [Source, Year] |
| SAM | $[X]M | [Filters applied] | [Calculation] |
| SOM (3yr) | $[X]M | [Share %] × SAM | [Assumptions] |

## TAM Calculation

### Top-Down
- Industry: [Name]
- Total size: $[X] ([Source])
- Relevant segment: [X]% = $[X]

### Bottom-Up
- Potential customers: [N]
- Average deal size: $[X]/year
- TAM: [N] × $[X] = $[X]

### Reconciliation
[Explain any difference between methods]

## SAM Derivation

| Filter | Reduction | Remaining |
|--------|-----------|-----------|
| Starting TAM | - | $[X] |
| [Filter 1] | [X]% | $[X] |
| [Filter 2] | [X]% | $[X] |
| **SAM** | - | **$[X]** |

## SOM Assumptions

- Year 1 share: [X]% = $[X]
- Year 3 share: [X]% = $[X]
- Rationale: [Why these shares are achievable]

## Why Now

| Factor | Score | Evidence |
|--------|-------|----------|
| Technology | [1-5] | [What's newly possible] |
| Regulation | [1-5] | [What's changed] |
| Behavior | [1-5] | [What shifted] |
| Economics | [1-5] | [What's affordable] |
| Competition | [1-5] | [What gap exists] |
| **Total** | **[X]/25** | |

## Market Trends

### Tailwinds
- [Trend 1]: [Impact on opportunity]
- [Trend 2]: [Impact on opportunity]

### Headwinds
- [Trend 1]: [Mitigation strategy]
- [Trend 2]: [Mitigation strategy]

## Market Risks

| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|-------------|--------|------------|
| [Risk 1] | H/M/L | H/M/L | [Strategy] |
| [Risk 2] | H/M/L | H/M/L | [Strategy] |

## Mode Validation

**Mode:** [From 00.mode.md]
**TAM Requirement:** [Met/Not Met]
**Recommendation:** [Proceed/Expand/Reconsider]

Quality Criteria

Before finalizing, verify:

• Both TAM methods calculated and reconciled
• All SAM filters documented with rationale
• SOM based on constraints, not aspirations
• Timing score completed with evidence
• Mode validation performed
• Sources cited with years

Boundaries

• Does NOT validate customer demand (see fnd.r-scoring-problems)
• Does NOT guarantee market capture
• Does NOT predict competitor response
• Market size is estimate, not fact — cite sources
• SOM is constrained projection, not target
• Timing assessment is point-in-time, markets change
• Does NOT handle multi-market or platform economics