The Historian Decision-Making Model

Overview

A process for improving decision quality by excavating and analyzing organization history to understand the context of past failures before charting a new path.

Core principle: Learn from mistakes you didn't personally live through.

The Process

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  1. EXCAVATE                                                    │
│     Research past decisions and outcomes                        │
│     Talk to long-tenured employees                              │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  2. CONTEXTUALIZE                                               │
│     Analyze "Why" decisions were made at that time              │
│     What was the environment/constraints?                       │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  3. IDENTIFY BAGGAGE                                            │
│     Map internal resistance and emotional blockers              │
│     "We tried that before" = baggage signal                     │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  4. FORMULATE HYPOTHESIS                                        │
│     Create strategy informed by historical context              │
│     Address what was different then vs. now                     │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  5. DECIDE & ITERATE                                            │
│     Commit to direction without needing 100% certainty          │
│     Learn from results                                          │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Key Principles

Common Mistakes

• Ignoring "baggage" associated with old ideas
• Making decisions without understanding historical context
• Assuming "we tried that" means it can never work

Source: Anneka Gupta (Rubrik CPO) via Lenny's Podcast