Shortening the Feedback Loop

Overview

A mental model to debunk the idea that some decisions require years to evaluate. It involves identifying short-term proxies that correlate with long-term success.

Core principle: There is no such thing as a long feedback loop—it's a choice to wait.

The Framework

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                                                                  │
│   ULTIMATE OUTCOME (e.g., IPO / $1B Exit)                       │
│                     ▲                                           │
│                     │                                           │
│   ┌─────────────────┴─────────────────┐                         │
│   │   INTERMEDIATE PROXY              │                         │
│   │   (Necessary Condition)           │                         │
│   │   e.g., Series A Funding (18 mo)  │                         │
│   └─────────────────┬─────────────────┘                         │
│                     │                                           │
│   ┌─────────────────┴─────────────────┐                         │
│   │   SHORT-TERM SIGNAL               │                         │
│   │   (Correlated Metric)             │                         │
│   │   e.g., Net New ARR, Retention    │                         │
│   └───────────────────────────────────┘                         │
│                                                                  │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Key Principles

Common Mistakes

• Waiting for final exit/outcome to judge decision quality
• Ignoring interim signals like funding or retention
• Hiding behind "it's too early to tell"

Source: Annie Duke (First Round Capital) via Lenny's Podcast