Skill: ib_trade-osint

Purpose

This skill implements a fully automated, trading-specific Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) cycle. It transforms raw public information into actionable, trade-relevant intelligence by prioritizing recency, source authority, and probable market impact.

Core Mandates

1. Recency First: Prioritize information from the last 24–48 hours. Max window is 14 days.
2. PRIO-A Dominance: Official releases, news wires, and primary market-moving sources (PRIO A) must be checked first before moving to lower-priority discovery (PRIO B, C, D).
3. No Trade Without Catalyst: Do not recommend trades based on noise. Only high-impact, corroborated catalysts survive the prefilter.
4. Adversarial Interrogation: Treat every signal as a hypothesis. Corroborate across independent sources before confirming a "high impact" score.

1. The Intelligence Cycle

The cycle consists of six continuous phases:

1. Planning: Define the objective (e.g., "Identify AI supply chain shocks in the next 72h").
2. Collection: 70% controlled (user-curated) / 30% open discovery.
3. Processing: Cleaning, normalization, deduplication, and entity extraction (tickers, sectors, regions).
4. Evaluation: Apply the 4x4 Priority x Impact Matrix.
5. Analysis: Identify first/second-order causal chains and directional (Bullish/Bearish) implications.
6. Dissemination: Produce machine-readable intelligence candidates for the Analysis skill.

2. Source Priority Taxonomy

• PRIO A (Primary): SEC filings, official press releases, news wires, regulatory/government notices.
• PRIO B (Market Structure): Market data, earnings calendars, analyst revisions, options flow.
• PRIO C (Contextual): Specialist industry reporting, security research, trade publications.
• PRIO D (Discovery): Social chatter, minor blogs, forums (Weak signals only).

3. The Prefilter Matrix (4x4)

Score every event to decide if it survives for analysis:

Priority \ Impact	Low	Medium	High
PRIO A	Watchlist Link only	Retain & Map	Immediate Escalation
PRIO B	Context only	Retain	Immediate Escalation
PRIO C	Archive	Context	Corroboration Required
PRIO D	Ignore	Queue	Alert Only

4. Scoring Logic (Thresholds)

• Score (0-15+): Sum of weights (Priority: A=4, B=3, C=2, D=1; Impact: High=4, Med=3, Low=2; Directness: Ticker=3, Sector=2).
• 12+: High-conviction intelligence candidate.
• 9-11: Retain for fusion.
• <9: Archive or discard.

5. Decision Translation

• Buy/Sell Now: High-conviction (12+) + Bullish/Bearish direction + Direct Ticker impact.
• Limit Order: High-conviction + Directional edge + Volatility/Price dislocation.
• Watch: Low-conviction or mixed signals.

6. Target Intelligence Schema (JSON/YAML)

Every result must include:

• ticker: Affected asset(s).
• catalyst_score: Numerical value based on the prefilter.
• direction: bullish, bearish, or mixed.
• impact_horizon: 0-24h, 24-72h, or 7d.
• confidence: confirmed, probable, or possible.
• source_refs: List of URLs or source IDs.