Structured Prediction Assembly

Build predictions through a disciplined 4-phase pipeline: decompose the question, extract evidence, challenge your own reasoning, then predict with calibrated confidence. Every prediction produces a portable card with full provenance.

When to use

• Make a structured forecast with evidence, not a vibes-based answer
• Binary YES/NO questions with probability (prediction markets, Polymarket, Kalshi)
• Scenario analysis ("what happens if the Fed cuts?", "will this merger close?")
• Ground predictions in your extracted KB + current web data
• Track accuracy over time with Brier scores and a resolution ledger

Input contract

required:
  question: string   # The prediction question ("Will the Fed cut rates before July 2026?")
  domain: string     # Domain slug ("macro-rates", "us-politics", "ag-commodities")
optional: