💰 Economic Policy Analysis Skill

🔴 AI FIRST Quality Principle

Apply the AI FIRST principle: never accept first-pass quality. Minimum 2 iterations. Read all output, improve every section. No shortcuts.

Purpose

Provides expertise in analyzing economic policy for political journalists. Covers fiscal policy, budget analysis, economic forecasting, monetary policy, and trade policy to enable sophisticated economic reporting for riksdagsmonitor's political transparency mission.

Core Principles

Data-Driven - Base analysis on official statistics and credible forecasts
Policy Focus - Link economic data to political decisions and impacts
Accessible - Explain complex economics clearly for general audience
Distributional - Analyze who wins and loses from policy choices
International Context - Compare Swedish policy to global trends

This Skill Enforces

Fiscal policy analysis - Budget, taxation, spending priorities
Monetary policy understanding - Central bank actions, interest rates
Economic forecasting - Growth, inflation, employment projections
Trade policy - Exports, imports, trade agreements, tariffs
Distributional analysis - Income, wealth, inequality impacts
Political economy - How politics shapes economic policy choices

Key Economic Indicators

Macro Indicators

GDP Growth - Quarterly and annual real growth rates
Inflation - CPI, CPIF (excluding interest), core inflation
Unemployment - Total, youth, long-term rates
Employment - Participation rate, job creation
Productivity - Output per hour worked, trends
Trade Balance - Exports minus imports

Fiscal Indicators

Budget Balance - Deficit or surplus as % of GDP
Public Debt - Gross debt as % of GDP
Tax Burden - Total tax revenue as % of GDP
Spending Composition - By function (healthcare, education, defense)
Fiscal Stance - Expansionary, contractionary, neutral
Fiscal Rules - Surplus target, expenditure ceiling, debt anchor

Monetary Indicators

Policy Rate - Riksbank repo rate
Inflation Target - 2% CPIF inflation
Exchange Rate - SEK vs EUR, USD
Money Supply - M1, M2, M3 aggregates
Credit Growth - Household and corporate lending

Financial Indicators

Stock Market - OMXS30 index
Bond Yields - 10-year government bond
Credit Spreads - Corporate vs government bonds
Housing Prices - National and regional trends
Household Debt - As % of disposable income

When to Use This Skill

Budget Coverage

Spring and Fall budget proposals
Budget negotiations and amendments
Long-term fiscal sustainability analysis
Distributional impact of budget measures

Economic Forecasts

Riksbank monetary policy reports (4 per year)
National Institute of Economic Research forecasts (quarterly)
Finance Ministry forecasts (budget documents)
International forecasts (IMF, OECD, EU Commission)

Policy Analysis

Tax reform proposals and impacts
Spending priorities and tradeoffs
Welfare state sustainability
Economic crisis response measures

International Context

EU fiscal rules compliance
Trade agreement negotiations
Economic sanctions impacts
Global economic trends affecting Sweden

Examples

Budget Analysis

**Spring Budget: Healthcare Boost, But at What Cost?**

Government's spring budget amendment proposes 8.5 billion SEK healthcare 
increase, but financing strategy raises fiscal sustainability concerns.

**The Numbers**:
- Healthcare spending: +8.5B SEK (2026-2027)
- Tax revenue revision: +12B SEK (stronger growth forecast)
- Spending reallocation: +2B SEK (from infrastructure)
- Net fiscal impact: +6B SEK looser stance

**Economic Context**:
- GDP growth forecast: 1.8% (2026), up from 0.8% (previous)
- Unemployment: 7.2%, stable
- Inflation: 2.3%, above Riksbank target
- Output gap: Still slightly negative (−0.3%)

**Fiscal Rules Compliance**:
- Surplus target (1% over cycle): On track (current: 0.5%)
- Expenditure ceiling: Headroom of 9B SEK remains
- Debt anchor (35% GDP): Current 32%, comfortable margin

**Expert Assessment**:
**Riksbank (unofficial view)**: Concerns about pro-cyclical stimulus. 
Economy recovering, fiscal expansion may overheat. Could complicate 
monetary policy (keep rates higher longer).

**National Institute of Economic Research**: Revenue forecast optimistic. 
Risk of over-estimation. If growth disappoints, creates 5B SEK hole.

**OECD Sweden Review**: Healthcare spending needed, but prefer 
structural reforms over pure spending increase. Efficiency gains possible.

**Distributional Analysis**:
**Winners**: Healthcare workers (wage increases), elderly (reduced wait times)
**Losers**: Infrastructure projects delayed, future taxpayers (if deficit)
**Neutral**: Middle-income taxpayers (no tax changes)

**International Comparison**:
- **Denmark**: 10.5% GDP on healthcare (vs Sweden 10.2%)
- **Norway**: 10.8% GDP (oil wealth allows higher)
- **Finland**: 9.5% GDP (tighter fiscal constraints)
- **Germany**: 11.7% GDP (insurance-based system)

**Verdict**: Politically popular, economically questionable timing. Better 
to pair with efficiency reforms. Risk of overheating economy if growth 
forecast proves optimistic.

*Sources: Government bill 2025/26:100, Riksbank Monetary Policy Report 
January 2026, NIER Conjunctural Report February 2026, OECD Economic 
Survey of Sweden 2025, expert interviews (4 economists)*

Monetary Policy Coverage

**Riksbank Holds Rates, But Signals June Cut**

Sweden's central bank held its policy rate at 2.75% today, but dovish 
language suggests first cut in June as inflation pressure eases.

**The Decision**:
- Repo rate: 2.75% (unchanged, as expected)
- Vote: 5-1 (one dissent for immediate 0.25% cut)
- Forward guidance: "Rate cuts likely starting mid-2026"

**Economic Assessment**:
- Inflation: 2.3% (down from 2.8% in December)
- Core inflation: 2.1% (near target)
- Wage growth: 3.2% (moderating from 4.1%)
- GDP growth: 1.5% forecast (Q4 2025: +0.4%)

**Governor Statement** (Excerpts):
"Inflation approaching target sustainably. Labor market cooling without 
crisis. Conditions for easier policy emerging. But premature to cut now. 
Want confidence inflation stays near 2%."

**Market Reaction**:
- 10-year bond yield: −5 basis points (expectations for cuts)
- SEK: −0.3% vs EUR (weaker on dovish tone)
- OMXS30 stock index: +1.2% (lower rates positive)

**Expert Analysis**:
**SEB Economics**: "Clear signal: June cut almost certain. September 
second cut. Terminal rate 1.5% by end-2026."

**Nordea**: "More cautious. Wage growth still elevated. Risk Riksbank 
waits until September. Total cuts: 75 bp (three cuts) in 2026."

**International Context**:
- **ECB**: Held rates at 3.0%, also signaling June cut
- **Fed**: On hold at 4.5%, divergence with Europe widening
- **Bank of England**: Cut to 4.25% last month

**Political Implications**:
Lower rates help government's re-election prospects:
- Housing market stabilizes (mortgage costs down)
- Consumer spending increases
- Business investment improves
- Opposition attacks on "economic mismanagement" weaken

**Dissent Analysis**:
First Bank Deputy Governor Henry Ohlsson dissented, preferring immediate 
cut. Argues inflation target achieved, unemployment too high (7.2%). 
Riksbank risks "behind the curve" like 2022.

*Sources: Riksbank press conference, Monetary Policy Report February 2026, 
market data (Nasdaq OMX), expert interviews (5 economists), historical 
data from Riksbank*

Remember

Data first - Start with official statistics (SCB, Riksbank, Finance Ministry)
Multiple forecasts - Don't rely on single source; compare Riksbank, NIER, OECD
Distributional impacts - Who wins and loses matters for political journalism
International context - Swedish economy deeply integrated globally
Fiscal rules - Understand surplus target, expenditure ceiling, debt anchor
Political economy - Economic policy choices reflect political priorities
Accessible language - Explain complex economics clearly
Uncertainty - Economic forecasts are uncertain; acknowledge this
Long-term view - Consider sustainability, not just short-term impacts
Expert diversity - Include range of economic perspectives

🔑 Authoritative data sources (Riksdagsmonitor — 2026-04-24)

IMF is PRIMARY for all economic context. World Bank is retained only for non-economic residue. Follow the provider decision matrix in analysis/imf/README.md § 2 and the full methodology in analysis/methodologies/imf-indicator-mapping.md v2.0.

Claim class	Provider	Access
Real GDP, inflation, unemployment, fiscal balance, debt/GDP, current account, exports/imports growth	IMF WEO	`tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts weo …` / `compare …` (CLI via `bash`, no MCP)
Primary balance, cyclically-adjusted balance, DSA	IMF Fiscal Monitor	same CLI
Monthly CPI, high-frequency rates, Riksbank policy rate	IMF IFS / MFS_IR	`tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts sdmx --path "/data/IMF.STA,CPI,4.0.0/…"`
Bilateral trade flows	IMF DOTS	`tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts sdmx --path "/data/IMF.STA,DOTS,4.0.0/…"`
Commodity benchmarks (oil, metals)	IMF PCPS	same
Exchange rates (SEK/USD, SEK/EUR, REER)	IMF ER	same
COFOG spending by function (defence, health, education, social protection)	IMF GFS_COFOG	same
Swedish-specific KPIF, AKU labour, regional, budget execution	SCB (`pxweb-mcp`)	`query_table`
Governance (WGI, `source=75`) — rule of law, control of corruption, voice & accountability	World Bank (`worldbank-mcp`)	`get-economic-data` with `CC.EST`, `RL.EST`, `VA.EST`, `GE.EST`, `RQ.EST`, `PV.EST`
Environment — CO₂, renewables, forest cover	World Bank	`EN.ATM.CO2E.PC`, `EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS`, `AG.LND.FRST.ZS`
Defence historicals (> 15 year trends)	World Bank	`MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS`
Education participation	World Bank	`SE.PRM.ENRR`, `SE.TER.ENRR`
Crime / homicide	World Bank	`VC.IHR.PSRC.P5`

⚠️ Deprecated (do NOT use as primary) — worldbank:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, worldbank:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, worldbank:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS, worldbank:GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS, worldbank:GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS, worldbank:GC.REV.XGRT.GD.ZS, worldbank:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS, worldbank:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS, worldbank:NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, worldbank:NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. Replace with their IMF counterpart — full mapping in analysis/imf/indicators-inventory.json → deprecationPolicy.

Vintage discipline (mandatory for projections)

Every WEO / FM projection quote MUST include a vintage tag: (WEO Apr-2026, GGXWDG_NGDP). Current vintage: WEO-2026-04. Stale-vintage citations (> 6 months old) trigger a warning annotation in methodology-reflection.md — see Economic Data Contract § Vintage staleness rule.

Canonical recipes

# Single-country WEO (15-year series with projections)
tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts weo --country SWE --indicator NGDP_RPCH --years 15 --persist

# Nordic peer-compare (1 batched call, not 5)
tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts compare --indicator GGXWDG_NGDP \
  --countries SWE,DNK,NOR,FIN,DEU --persist

# Monthly CPI (IFS)
tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts sdmx \
  --path "/data/IMF.STA,CPI,4.0.0/M.SE.PCPI_IX?startPeriod=2022-01" \
  --indicator PCPI_IX --country SWE --persist

# COFOG health spending (SoU committee)
tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts sdmx \
  --path "/data/IMF.STA,GFS_COFOG,4.0.0/A.144.G.G07._Z._Z._Z._Z.XDC_R_B1GQ?startPeriod=2015" \
  --indicator G07 --country SWE --persist

Rate-limit discipline: IMF advertises ~10 req / 5 s; prefer compare over parallel weo; sleep 1 between invocations; target ≤ 10 IMF calls per article. Full playbook: analysis/imf/agentic-integration.md.

References

Use this skill when: Analyzing budgets and fiscal policy, covering monetary policy decisions, reporting on economic forecasts, assessing trade policy, or explaining economic impacts of political decisions for general audience.

economic-policy-analysis