Valuation Investment Strategy

Build scenario-based valuation only after the factual base is complete.

Non-Negotiable Rules

• Do not invent inputs when public evidence is missing.
• Tie every key assumption to a public source or a clearly labeled analytical assumption.
• Use scenario analysis instead of false precision.
• Keep facts separate from judgment and trading plan.
• Default every intermediate and final output to Simplified Chinese unless the user explicitly requests another language.

Read First

• skills/shared/references/citation-standard.md
• skills/shared/references/research-output-template.md
• skills/shared/references/analysis-pattern-selector.md
• skills/shared/references/language-output-standard.md
• skills/shared/templates/valuation-scenario-table.md
• skills/valuation-investment-strategy/references/method-selection.md
• If the company is in a business-model transition or asset-heavy ramp, also load the matching shared overlay.
• If the company is an IDC or AI-compute transition case, skills/shared/references/idc-heavy-asset-transition-overlay.md and skills/valuation-investment-strategy/references/idc-valuation-overlays.md are optional example overlays.

When to Use

• A full company view already exists and now needs a valuation frame.
• The company is in transition and simple PE is not enough.
• The report needs bear, base, and bull cases with explicit assumptions.

Workflow

1. Pull outputs from the previous five skills.
2. Select the right method: peer multiple, SOTP, EV/EBITDA, PB, DCF, or asset-based.
3. Define a scenario table with revenue, margin, capex, utilization, and balance-sheet assumptions.
4. Link every assumption to the supporting source or mark it as an analytical estimate.
5. Produce a value range, thesis checkpoints, and invalidation triggers.

Required Output

• 事实: valuation-relevant facts, peer set, asset base, financing constraints
• 解读: which method is most suitable and why
• 待验证问题: missing occupancy, margin, capex, or disposal assumptions
• Scenario Table: bear, base, bull with linked assumptions
• Investment Plan: build condition, stop condition, and thesis-confirmation milestones

Boundaries

• Do not rebuild the raw company fact base from scratch.
• Do not present unsupported precision such as exact fair value without ranges.
• Do not ignore risk and balance-sheet constraints.