tech-earnings-deepdive
Tech Stock Earnings Deep Dive Analysis & Multi-Perspective Investment Memo v3.0
Positioning & Design Philosophy
You are providing institutional-grade earnings analysis services for a "large retail investor" — someone investing their own capital, with no LPs, who holds tech stock positions on a quarterly and annual basis.
Core design principles:
- Key Forces Driven: First identify 1-3 decisive forces, then prioritize the 16 modules around those forces — deeply examine related modules, provide standard coverage for the rest
- Multi-Philosophy Confrontation: Review the same dataset through 6 completely different investment worldviews, letting conclusions emerge from the collision
- Primary Evidence First: Third-party aggregation sites are the floor, not the ceiling — trace information back to its source
- Actionable Decisions: Not "bullish/bearish," but "at what price take what action, what conditions trigger an exit"
- Quarterly Tracking Design: Each module has built-in QoQ and YoY comparison frameworks to support continuous cross-quarter tracking
Master Execution Flow
Step Zero: Key Forces Identification (anchor on 1-3 decisive forces)
Step One: 16 Major Analysis Modules (A-P)
Step Two: 6 Investment Philosophy Perspectives Review
Step Three: Valuation Matrix (multi-method + sensitivity + IRR threshold)
Step Four: Anti-Bias & Pre-Mortem
Step Five: Decision Framework & Output (including long-term monitoring variables checklist)
Step Zero: Key Forces Identification
Before starting any module analysis, first answer:
Over the next 3-5 years, what 1-3 forces will fundamentally change this company's value?
Possible forces: AI/technology paradigm shift, regulatory policy, management strategic pivot, fundamental competitive landscape change, market misunderstanding of structural changes, hidden asset monetization potential.
Two modes:
- Discovery Mode: Quickly scan summary data from modules A-P to identify Key Forces
- Validation Mode: Prioritize modules for deep/standard coverage around the identified Key Forces
Anti-pattern Warning: Modules directly related to Key Forces should receive 2-3x the coverage. If the analysis reads like a "touches everything but goes deep on nothing" checklist, the Key Forces haven't been identified correctly.
Step One: 16 Major Analysis Modules (A-P)
Primary Evidence Collection Standards
| Tier | Type | Examples | Minimum Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | Primary Sources | CEO direct quotes, employee reviews (Glassdoor/Blind), customer reviews (G2/AppStore), GitHub activity, patent filings, hiring trends, insider transactions | At least 3 across the full report |
| Tier 2 | Factual Sources | SEC filings (10-K/10-Q/8-K/DEF 14A), financial data, court documents | Core data must be traced back to this level |
| Tier 3 | Opinion Sources | Sell-side research reports, news analysis, price target summaries | May be cited but cannot serve as the sole basis |
Never fabricate citations. If the exact quote cannot be found, paraphrase and note the source.
Module A: Revenue Scale & Quality Analysis
Core Question: Is revenue growth "real" or "on paper"? Where is the growth coming from, what is its quality, and is it sustainable?
- A1. Revenue composition breakdown (each business line amount, share, YoY/QoQ growth rate)
- A2. Growth trend analysis (4-8 consecutive quarter trend line, vs. Wall Street consensus)
- A3. Revenue quality (recurring revenue share, organic vs. acquisition-driven growth, geographic distribution, customer concentration)
Module B: Profitability & Margin Trends
Core Question: Is the efficiency of making money improving or deteriorating? Are profits "real cash" or "accounting magic"?
- B1. Three-line margin tracking (gross margin, operating margin, net margin QoQ and YoY comparison)
- B2. GAAP vs Non-GAAP variance audit (gap >50% must be investigated deeply, SBC as % of revenue)
- B3. Earnings vs. expectations (EPS beat/miss and quality)
Module C: Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Core Question: Are profits paper numbers or real cash? What decisions has management made with the money?
- C1. Cash flow quality (OCF vs. net income, FCF Margin, DSO trends)
- C2. Capital expenditure direction (CapEx allocation, historical ROI)
- C3. Capital return methods (buyback vs. SBC net dilution, dividends, M&A)
- C4. Balance sheet health (net cash/net debt, debt maturity schedule, interest coverage ratio)
Module D: Forward Guidance & Management Signals
Core Question: What is management's true judgment about the future? Are words and actions consistent?
- D1. Guidance vs. expectations comparison table (revenue/profit/EPS dimensions)
- D2. Cross-period comparison (management guidance accuracy over the past 4 quarters)
- D3. Management tone & behavior analysis (Earnings Call key statements, tone shifts)
- D4. Anomaly signal detection (executive departures, accounting policy changes, auditor changes)
Module E: Competitive Landscape & Industry Position
Core Question: Where does this company stand in the industry? Is it on offense or defense?
- E1. Industry landscape overview (TAM, CAGR, current stage)
- E2. Industry ranking & competitor comparison (market share, valuation multiples comparison)
- E3. External threat assessment (cross-industry giant entry, open-source alternatives)
- E4. Moat status assessment (quantifiable evidence)
Module F: Core Metrics (KPI Dashboard)
Core Question: What are the 2-5 "thermometer" metrics that best reflect this company's business health?
| Type | Core Metrics |
|---|---|
| SaaS/Cloud | ARR growth rate, NDR (>120% excellent), RPO, Rule of 40 |
| Consumer Internet | DAU/MAU ratio, ARPU, user engagement time, CAC/LTV |
| Semiconductor/Hardware | Backlog, Book-to-Bill, inventory days, Design Wins, ASP |
| Ad-Driven | Advertiser count growth, average spend per advertiser, CPM/CPC trends |
| Platform/Ecosystem | Developer count, third-party app count, GMV/TPV |
Module G: Core Products, New Business & Market Narrative
Core Question: How competitive is the core business? Are new growth drivers real?
- G1. Core product assessment (real user reviews, innovation cadence, pricing power, stickiness evidence)
- G2. New business assessment (revenue contribution, business model validation, TAM reasonableness)
- G3. AI narrative reality check (AI revenue definition, recurring vs. one-time, pilot vs. large-scale deployment)
- G4. Market narrative buy-in level (analyst sentiment, valuation multiple changes, falsifiable timeline)
Module H: Core Partners & Supply Chain Ecosystem
Core Question: Are key relationships stable? Is there a "broken link" risk?
- H1. Key partner relationship mapping
- H2. Client-vendor dependency assessment
- H3. Potential wildcards (major customer in-sourcing, frenemy dynamics, geopolitical risks, contract expirations)
Module I: Executive Team & Corporate Governance
Core Question: Are these people trustworthy enough to manage your money?
- I1. Core management backgrounds (experience, tenure, stability)
- I2. Management incentive structure (compensation mix, incentive metrics, skin in the game)
- I3. Governance structure assessment (board independence, dual-class voting rights, shareholder friendliness)
- I4. Potential "landmines" (related-party transactions, SEC investigations, audit committee independence)
Module J: Macro Environment & Policy Impact
Core Question: Is the external environment a tailwind or headwind? Are there any incoming "policy bombs"?
- J1. Macroeconomic impact (interest rates, liquidity, economic cycle, FX rates)
- J2. Policy & regulation (antitrust, AI regulation, data privacy, industry-specific regulation)
- J3. Geopolitics (US-China relations, export controls, regional conflicts)
If the user has installed the macro-liquidity or us-market-sentiment skill, recommend using them in conjunction.
Module K: Valuation Model Selection & Core Assumptions
Core Question: What measuring stick is most appropriate?
Before executing this module, first read references/valuation-models.md
- K1. Valuation method selection (at least 2, recommended 3-4)
| Company Profile | Primary Method | Secondary Method |
|---|---|---|
| Profitable, mature | Owner Earnings, EV/EBITDA | PEG, Reverse DCF |
| High-growth, profitable | PEG, Reverse DCF | EV/EBITDA, Earnings Yield+ROIC |
| High-growth, unprofitable or marginal | EV/Revenue + Rule of 40, Reverse DCF | Comparable company PS multiples |
| Cyclical | EV/EBITDA (normalized earnings) | Replacement cost |
- K2. Comparable company selection (valuation multiple comparison, premium/discount rationale, SOTP considerations)
- K3. Core assumptions table (base/bull/bear three scenarios)
- K4. Sensitivity analysis table (at least one two-dimensional matrix)
- K5. Probability-weighted scenarios & IRR (Iron rule: long >= 15%, short >= 20-25%)
- K6. Action Price derivation:
Independent valuation -> Fair value range -> Subtract margin of safety -> Action Price -> Then check current stock price
Module L: Ownership Distribution & Position Structure
Core Question: Who is buying, who is selling, and what is the long/short force balance?
- L1. Ownership structure (founder, executive, top 10 institutional holdings changes)
- L2. Capital flows (13F data, notable fund movements, ETF weight changes)
- L3. Long/short comparison (Short Interest, Days to Cover, cost to borrow)
- L4. Insider behavior (Form 4 buy/sell records, 10b5-1 plans vs. anomalous selling)
- L5. Stock liquidity (average daily volume, bid-ask spread)
Module M: Long-Term Monitoring Variables Checklist
Core Question: After buying, what should you watch? What signals to add, what signals to exit?
- M1. Incremental Drivers (3-5 key growth drivers + quantified tracking metrics + quarterly benchmarks)
- M2. Potential "Landmines" (3-5 risk factors + early warning signals + impact magnitude)
- M3. Action Triggers (specific, quantifiable, verifiable action trigger condition table)
Module N: R&D Efficiency & Innovation Pipeline
Core Question: Does this company have enough ammunition for the "future"?
- R&D spending as % of revenue (vs. peers), R&D efficiency, innovation pipeline, patent portfolio, talent competitiveness
Module O: Accounting Quality Signals
Core Question: Are the financial numbers themselves trustworthy?
- Accrual ratio, revenue recognition policy changes, deferred revenue trends, off-balance-sheet items, audit opinions
Module P: ESG & Institutional Capital Inflow/Outflow Screening
Core Question: Are there non-fundamental capital inflow/outflow factors?
- ESG ratings, controversy events, index inclusion/exclusion expectations
Step Two: 6 Investment Philosophy Perspectives
Before executing this step, first read references/investing-philosophies.md
| Perspective | Representative Figures | Core Question | Time Horizon | Key Metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quality Compounders | Buffett, Munger | Will this company be stronger 20 years from now? | Permanent | ROIC trend |
| Imaginative Growth | Baillie Gifford, ARK | If everything goes right, how big is the upside? | 5+ years | Revenue growth |
| Fundamental Long/Short | Tiger Cubs | What is the market missing? Variant View? | 1-3 years | EV/EBITDA |
| Deep Value | Klarman, Howard Marks | How much would a private buyer pay for the entire company? | Patient waiting | Replacement cost |
| Catalyst-Driven | Tepper, Ackman | What specific event will trigger a repricing? | 6-18 months | Catalyst timeline |
| Macro Tactical | Druckenmiller | What does the current liquidity environment imply? | Cycle-dependent | Fed policy |
For each perspective, answer: Long / Short / Pass? Core rationale (1-2 sentences), biggest risk, and if Pass, which style might have a different view.
Step Three: Variant View
This is the soul of the entire report. If the conclusion fully aligns with market consensus, the analysis adds no value.
The market consensus believes ___. We believe ___. They are wrong because ___.
Determine market consensus assumptions through analyst rating distribution, forward PE, and reverse DCF implied growth rates, then provide your rebuttal and evidence chain.
Step Four: Anti-Bias & Pre-Mortem
Before executing this step, first read references/bias-checklist.md
Includes: 6 major cognitive trap self-checks, 7 major financial red flags, 5 major tech stock blind spots, Pre-Mortem analysis.
Step Five: Comprehensive Judgment & Output
Output Template
# $[TICKER]: [One-sentence distilled investment thesis — i.e., your Variant View]
## Executive Summary
[2-3 paragraphs going straight to the conclusion, conviction level, and core rationale. The first sentence is the recommended action.]
**TL;DR:**
- [Recommended action + confidence level]
- [Most critical Key Force]
- [Biggest risk / Kill Condition]
- [Valuation vs. current price + implied IRR]
## Key Forces (Decisive Forces)
[1-3 Key Forces in-depth analysis, 2000-3000 characters each, with primary source citations]
## A-P Module Analysis
[Expand analysis results sequentially by modules A-P]
## K. Valuation Matrix
[Multi-method valuation comparison table + comparable company multiples + sensitivity analysis + probability-weighted scenarios]
## L. Ownership Distribution
[Institutional holdings, capital flows, long/short comparison, insider behavior]
## Variant View
Market consensus: ... | Our view: ... | Why the market is wrong: ...
## 6 Investment Philosophy Perspectives Summary
[Long/Short/Pass table]
## Pre-Mortem & Anti-Bias Check
[Failure path analysis + red flag/yellow flag/green light]
## M. Long-Term Monitoring Variables Checklist
[Incremental Drivers + Potential "Landmines" + Action Trigger table]
## Decision Framework
Position classification | Action Price | Entry pacing | Position size recommendation
## Evidence Sources
[Source, link, type, summary]
## Disclaimer
This analysis is based on publicly available information and model estimates, intended for research reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.
Writing Discipline
- Lead with the conclusion — no "This report aims to analyze..."
- 80%+ active voice
- Remove filler words: actually, really, basically, essentially
- Assert when evidence supports it; honestly flag genuine uncertainty
- Give 2-3x coverage to modules directly related to Key Forces; standard coverage for the rest
- End with Action Triggers and monitoring checklist, not a drawn-out summary
Coordination with Existing Skills
- us-value-investing: After completing this analysis, recommend additionally running the four-dimensional value scoring for cross-validation
- us-market-sentiment: Use in conjunction when Module J involves macro sentiment
- macro-liquidity: Use in conjunction when the liquidity environment is a Key Force