Polymarket Trading - Self-Evolving Trading Bot

Design a trading strategy with the user, run automated paper trading (dry-run), auto-improve parameters when underperforming, and ask permission to switch to live trading when edge target met.

Supports any market type: politics, sports, crypto prices, science, entertainment, etc.

Critical Rules

1. NEVER default to any specific market — always ask user what they want to trade
2. NEVER show made-up prices or signals — only real script output
3. DRY RUN always on by default — only switch to live after explicit user confirmation
4. Auto-improve silently — adjust params and notify user
5. NEVER create a strategy or set up crons without explicit user confirmation

Multi-User Support

Each user has their own credentials/{USER_ID}.json:

{
  "private_key": "0x...",
  "funder_address": "0x...",
  "dry_run": true
}

Set USER_ID or TELEGRAM_USER_ID env var when calling scripts.

Or set POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY env var.

First-Time User Flow

1. Check credentials

USER_ID=$TELEGRAM_USER_ID python3 {baseDir}/scripts/polymarket.py check

If not configured, run interactive setup:

USER_ID=$TELEGRAM_USER_ID python3 {baseDir}/scripts/polymarket.py setup

2. Ask what they want to trade

Do NOT assume. Ask:

• What market type? (politics, sports, crypto, tech, etc.)
• Any specific keywords to focus on?

3. Propose strategy — WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION

Based on the conversation, derive and propose concrete values. Stop and wait for user to confirm before executing anything.

4. Create strategy (only after confirmation)

USER_ID=$TELEGRAM_USER_ID python3 {baseDir}/scripts/strategy_manager.py create --json '{
  "name": "<strategy name>",
  "market_filter": {
    "keywords": ["<keywords>"],
    "min_liquidity_usdc": 1000,
    "max_days_to_expiry": 30,
    "min_days_to_expiry": 1
  },
  "signal": {
    "method": "orderbook_imbalance",
    "params": { "threshold": 0.15, "max_entry_price": 0.60 }
  },
  "sizing": { "max_size_usdc": 5 },
  "targets": { "min_sample_size": 30, "min_edge": 0.05 }
}'

5. Set up crons

SKILL_PATH={baseDir}
STRATEGY_ID=<id from step 4>

# Signal scan: every 15 minutes
(crontab -l 2>/dev/null; echo "*/15 * * * * USER_ID=$TELEGRAM_USER_ID python3 $SKILL_PATH/scripts/signal_cron.py $STRATEGY_ID >> $SKILL_PATH/state/$TELEGRAM_USER_ID.$STRATEGY_ID.log 2>&1") | crontab -

# Performance review: daily at 09:00 UTC
(crontab -l 2>/dev/null; echo "0 9 * * * USER_ID=$TELEGRAM_USER_ID python3 $SKILL_PATH/scripts/review_cron.py $STRATEGY_ID >> $SKILL_PATH/state/$TELEGRAM_USER_ID.review.log 2>&1") | crontab -

Strategy Lifecycle

dry_run → improving → pending_live → live

Go-live condition: edge = win_rate - avg_entry_price >= min_edge AND total_pnl > 0

Strategy Management

USER_ID=$TELEGRAM_USER_ID python3 {baseDir}/scripts/strategy_manager.py status
USER_ID=$TELEGRAM_USER_ID python3 {baseDir}/scripts/strategy_manager.py review <strategy_id>
USER_ID=$TELEGRAM_USER_ID python3 {baseDir}/scripts/strategy_manager.py activate-live <strategy_id>

Auto-Improvement Rules

Condition	Action
edge < min_edge - 10%	Raise threshold (fewer but stronger signals)
edge < min_edge - 3%	Lower max_entry_price (cheaper entries)
3+ adjustments still failing	Notify user to reconsider
edge >= min_edge AND pnl > 0	Mark pending_live, notify user

Signal Methods

Method	Best for
orderbook_imbalance	Any liquid market with active orderbook

New methods can be added to scripts/signals.py.

Troubleshooting

Error	Solution
py-clob-client not installed	pip3 install py-clob-client
USER_ID not set	Add USER_ID=xxx prefix
No config found	Run python3 {baseDir}/scripts/polymarket.py setup
API Error 401	Re-run setup to re-derive keys
No markets found	Broaden keywords or lower min_liquidity_usdc

File Structure

polymarket-trading/
├── SKILL.md
├── scripts/
│   ├── strategy_manager.py   # Lifecycle: create/review/status/activate-live
│   ├── signal_cron.py        # Cron: scan markets, run signals, record trades
│   ├── review_cron.py        # Cron: daily review + auto-improve
│   ├── signals.py            # Pluggable signal methods
│   ├── market_scanner.py     # Gamma API market discovery
│   └── polymarket.py         # CLOB API primitives
├── credentials/
│   └── {USER_ID}.json
├── strategies/
│   └── {USER_ID}/{strategy_id}.json
└── state/
    └── {USER_ID}.{strategy_id}.perf.json