Ad Campaign Analyzer

Analyze running ad campaigns by grading every ad or ad set as Red (stop), Yellow (leave alone), or Green (scale). Flags creative fatigue, checks profitability against AOV, and gives concrete next steps with specific budget numbers.

Built from the Red-Yellow-Green method in Low Ticket Profits.

Usage

Use when reviewing a running campaign to decide what to kill, keep, or scale. Works for daily 15-minute ad reviews, weekly creative refresh planning, and monthly performance trend reviews.

Process

Step 1: Gather Inputs

Ask the user for:

Campaign data — one of:
- CSV or table with columns: ad/ad set name, impressions, clicks, conversions, spend, CPA
- Pasted text from ads manager
- Structured list of metrics per ad
Target CPA — the maximum they're willing to pay per acquisition
AOV (Average Order Value) — what they earn per conversion on the front end
Product/pricing info — what they sell, offer details, known conversion benchmarks
Daily budget per ad set (optional) — for scaling calculations
Days running (optional) — for statistical significance judgment
Historical data (optional) — from previous review for trend comparison

Step 2: Parse Campaign Data

Normalize the input into a consistent table structure:

Ad / Ad Set	Impressions	Clicks	CTR	Conversions	Spend	CPA	Days Running

Calculate any missing derived metrics:

CTR = clicks / impressions × 100
CPA = spend / conversions (∞ if 0 conversions)
Conversion rate = conversions / clicks × 100

Step 3: Grade Each Ad — Red / Yellow / Green

🔴 RED = STOP

Kill this ad. It's burning money.

Criteria (any one triggers Red):

Spent 1.5–2x target CPA with zero conversions
CPA is 2x+ target CPA with statistically significant spend
Consistently worsening metrics over multiple days with no improvement signs
CTR below 0.5% after 1,000+ impressions (the creative isn't connecting)

Action: Turn off immediately. Redirect budget to greens.

🟡 YELLOW = LEAVE ALONE

Don't touch it. It needs more data or is borderline.

Criteria:

CPA is close to target (within 0.5–1.5x) but not enough data to be confident
Fewer than 1,000 impressions or fewer than 20 clicks — too early to judge
Spend is under 1x target CPA — hasn't had a fair chance yet
Metrics are mixed (good CTR but low conversion, or vice versa)

Action: Do nothing. Check again tomorrow. Resist the urge to tweak.

🟢 GREEN = SCALE

This ad is working. Give it more budget.

Criteria:

CPA is consistently at or below target CPA
Has statistically significant data (generally 10+ conversions)
Metrics are stable or improving over time
CTR is healthy for the targeting type

Action: Scale using the 20% Rule — increase daily budget by 20% every 48 hours.

Step 4: Benchmark Comparison

Compare each ad's metrics against industry benchmarks:

CTR Benchmarks (by targeting type):

Targeting	Expected CTR
Broad / run-of-network	1–3%
Interest-based targeting	2–4%
Lookalike / community-targeted	3–5%

CPA Targets by Offer Price:

Offer Price Range	Expected CPA Range
$7–27 (low ticket)	$20–40
$37–97 (mid ticket)	$40–120
$97+ (high ticket)	Varies — must model LTV

Step 4b: Funnel Debugging — Find the Leak

Before changing creative, check whether the ad is actually the problem. Work from the surface inward:

Creative — Is the CTR acceptable? Low CTR = the ad isn't connecting. Test new hooks, visuals, or headlines.
Landing page — CTR is fine but conversions are flat? The LP is the problem.
Messaging — LP structure looks okay but still no conversions? The fundamental message may not be resonating.
Product and pricing — Different angles all fail? The offer itself may be the issue.
Market — Everything above looks solid but the right people still aren't converting? The segment may be wrong.

Work from #1 → #5 in order. Most founders jump to #3 or #4 when the actual problem is #1 or #2.

Data thresholds — don't debug on noise:

< 1,000 impressions per ad variant: Too early to judge CTR.
< 100 LP visitors: Too early to judge landing page conversion.
< 10 conversions on a green ad: Scale cautiously — the trend may not hold.

Step 5: Flag Creative Fatigue

Check for fatigue signals across the data:

Declining CTR over time (even if still "okay" in absolute terms)
Rising CPA despite no changes to targeting or budget
Dropping conversion rate with stable traffic quality
Frequency above 3 (same people seeing the ad too many times)

If fatigue is detected, flag which ads are affected and recommend:

New creative variation (different angle, format, or style)
Audience refresh (new targeting or exclusions)
Copy refresh (same visual, new headline)

Step 6: Profitability Check

The North Star: Is AOV > CPA?

For each green ad, calculate:

Profit per conversion = AOV − CPA
ROAS = AOV / CPA (must be > 1.0 to be profitable)
Break-even CPA = AOV (you make $0 at this point)
Margin at current CPA = (AOV − CPA) / AOV × 100

Step 6b: LTV:CAC Health Check

If LTV data is available, assess the pricing-level health of the campaign:

LTV:CAC Ratio Benchmarks:

Pricing Function	Average LTV:CAC
No pricing function	1.68
Yearly pricing review	3.23
Continuous optimization	11.09

Interpret the ratio:

< 1:1 — Losing money on every customer. Stop spending until unit economics are fixed.
1:1 – 3:1 — Marginal. Campaigns may appear profitable on front-end ROAS but are destroying value over time.
3:1 – 5:1 — Healthy. Scale greens confidently.
> 5:1 — Excellent. May be under-investing in acquisition.

Monetization impact reminder: A 1% improvement in monetization yields a 12.7% increase in bottom-line revenue — roughly 4x the impact of acquisition and 2x the impact of retention. If LTV:CAC is weak, the fix may be pricing, not ads.

Step 6c: Attribution Notes

When analyzing multi-channel campaigns, note attribution limitations:

Single-channel campaigns: last-click is sufficient.
Multi-channel campaigns: flag that attribution is approximate.
Don't over-complicate analytics. The goal is action (red/yellow/green), not perfect measurement.

Step 7: Generate Scaling Recommendations

For each green ad, provide specific scaling numbers:

The 20% Rule:

Current daily budget → recommended new budget (current × 1.2)
When to apply: 48 hours after last budget change
Next check-in date

For the overall campaign:

Total daily spend recommendation
Budget reallocation from reds to greens
When to add new creatives to the mix

Output Format

# Campaign Analysis

**Date:** [current date]
**Campaign:** [campaign name or description]
**Period:** [date range of data]
**Target CPA:** $[amount]
**AOV:** $[amount]

---

## Traffic Light Summary

| Grade | Count | % of Spend |
|-------|-------|-----------|
| 🔴 Red (Stop) | X | X% |
| 🟡 Yellow (Wait) | X | X% |
| 🟢 Green (Scale) | X | X% |

**Campaign Health:** [Healthy / Needs Attention / Critical] — [one sentence summary]

---

## Ad-Level Grades

| Ad / Ad Set | Grade | Spend | CPA | Target CPA | CTR | Conv. | Action |
|-------------|-------|-------|-----|-----------|-----|-------|--------|
| [name] | 🔴 | $X | $X | $X | X% | X | Stop — [reason] |
| [name] | 🟡 | $X | $X | $X | X% | X | Wait — [reason] |
| [name] | 🟢 | $X | $X | $X | X% | X | Scale to $X/day |

---

## Benchmark Comparison

| Metric | Your Average | Benchmark | Status |
|--------|-------------|-----------|--------|
| CTR | X% | X–X% | ✅ On track / ⚠️ Below / 🔥 Above |
| Conversion Rate | X% | X–X% | ✅ / ⚠️ / 🔥 |
| CPA | $X | $X–X | ✅ / ⚠️ / 🔥 |

---

## Creative Fatigue Alerts

[List any ads showing fatigue signals, or "No fatigue signals detected."]

---

## Profitability

| Ad / Ad Set | CPA | AOV | Profit/Conv. | ROAS | Margin |
|-------------|-----|-----|-------------|------|--------|
| [name] | $X | $X | $X | X.Xx | X% |

**Overall ROAS:** X.Xx
**Overall Profit/Conversion:** $X

---

## Action Items

### Immediate (Today)
- [ ] Stop: [list red ads]
- [ ] Scale: [list green ads with specific new budgets]

### This Week
- [ ] [Creative refresh, new tests, etc.]

### Review Cadence
- Next daily check: [tomorrow]
- Next weekly review: [date]
- Next monthly review: [date]

---

## Scaling Plan

| Ad | Current Budget | New Budget | Apply On | Next Increase |
|----|---------------|-----------|----------|---------------|
| [name] | $X/day | $X/day | [date] | $X/day on [date] |

**Total daily spend:** $X → $X (recommended)

Rules

The grading method is deliberately binary. Red means stop, not "let's give it one more day." Kill losers fast and feed winners.
Yellow is the discipline zone. Don't "optimize" yellows. Either there's enough data to judge or there isn't.
The 20% rule exists because ad platforms optimize delivery around your budget. Jumping budgets overnight resets the algorithm's learning.
CPA is the North Star, not CTR. A high-CTR ad that doesn't convert is worse than a low-CTR ad with great CPA.
These benchmarks are starting points. After 2-4 weeks, your own data becomes the benchmark.
If everything is red, the problem isn't the ads — it's the offer or the funnel.
Creative fatigue is inevitable. Plan for it. Have your next batch of creatives ready before the current ones die.

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