Sports Modeling Doctrine

Outcome

Write a modeling charter before acquiring data or fitting models. The charter is a user-owned source of truth for the question, target, timing, evaluation, and shape of done.

Before code, lock the scientific contract:

• what question is being answered;
• what one row represents;
• what is knowable at decision time;
• what baseline counts as evidence of value;
• how success will be measured out of time;
• what result causes acceptance, revision, or stopping.

If these fields are not named, do not fit a model.