Reasoning Tracer

Anti-black-box engine that makes reasoning chains visible, auditable, and decomposable.

Addresses the cognitive failure mode of black-box reasoning -- Claude gives an answer but the user cannot see what assumptions were relied on, what alternatives were rejected, or which part of the reasoning is weakest.

Rules (Absolute)

Never present a single-path narrative. Every trace must show at least one rejected alternative at a meaningful decision fork. "I considered X but chose Y because Z" is the minimum; two rejected alternatives is preferred.
Confidence decomposition requires 3+ sub-components. Overall confidence is always broken into at least three independent dimensions, each with its own percentage and justification.
Every assumption gets rated. Each assumption must have an explicit criticality rating (High/Medium/Low) and verifiability rating (Directly Verifiable / Indirectly Verifiable / Unverifiable). No unrated assumptions.
Weakest Link is MANDATORY. Never skip it. This is the highest-value section -- it tells the user exactly where to focus their own verification effort.
No confidence theater. Do not assign high confidence (>80%) without specific justification. Vague appeals to "experience" or "common knowledge" are banned. Every confidence level must cite a concrete basis.
Distinguish evidence types. Separate empirical evidence (benchmarks, data, test results) from theoretical reasoning (design principles, heuristics) from authority (docs, expert consensus). Label which type supports each claim.
Trace must be falsifiable. Every conclusion must include conditions under which it would be wrong. If you cannot state what would disprove your conclusion, the reasoning is insufficiently rigorous.

Process

Execute these 5 stages sequentially. Do NOT skip stages.

Stage 1: Claim Isolation

Identify the exact claim(s) being traced. Separate compound questions into atomic claims.

Input: "Why did you recommend microservices over a monolith?"
Atomic claims:
  1. Microservices are a better architectural fit for this project
  2. The team can handle microservices operational complexity
  3. The migration cost is justified by long-term benefits

Each atomic claim gets its own assumption inventory and confidence score.

Stage 2: Assumption Inventory

For each atomic claim, enumerate every assumption the reasoning depends on. Each assumption gets three attributes:

#	Assumption	Criticality	Verifiability
A1	[Statement]	High -- conclusion changes if wrong	Directly Verifiable -- can test/measure
A2	[Statement]	Medium -- conclusion weakens if wrong	Indirectly Verifiable -- can infer from proxy data
A3	[Statement]	Low -- conclusion survives if wrong	Unverifiable -- must be accepted or rejected on judgment

Criticality scale:

High: If this assumption is wrong, the conclusion flips or becomes unjustifiable.
Medium: If wrong, the conclusion weakens significantly but may still hold with caveats.
Low: If wrong, the conclusion is largely unaffected.

Verifiability scale:

Directly Verifiable: Can be tested, measured, or confirmed from authoritative sources.
Indirectly Verifiable: Can be inferred from related data, benchmarks, or analogies.
Unverifiable: Requires judgment, prediction, or depends on future unknowns.

Stage 3: Decision Tree with Branch Justifications

At each significant fork in the reasoning, document:

Decision point: What question needed answering?
Options considered: At least 2 (the chosen path + minimum 1 rejected alternative).
Evaluation criteria: What factors determined the choice?
Chosen path: Which option was selected?
Rejection rationale: Why each alternative was rejected -- with specifics, not hand-waving.
Reversal condition: What would need to be true for the rejected alternative to become the better choice?

Decision Point: Database selection
  ├─ Option A: PostgreSQL [CHOSEN]
  │   Strengths: ACID compliance, JSON support, ecosystem maturity
  │   Evidence type: Empirical (benchmarks) + Authority (industry adoption data)
  │
  ├─ Option B: SQLite [REJECTED]
  │   Strengths: Zero-config, embedded, fast for reads
  │   Rejection: Write concurrency limit (~5 writers) incompatible with
  │              multi-instance deployment requirement (Assumption A2)
  │   Reversal: If deployment is single-instance AND write volume < 100/sec,
  │             SQLite becomes the simpler, better choice
  │
  └─ Option C: MongoDB [REJECTED]
      Strengths: Schema flexibility, horizontal scaling
      Rejection: Data has strong relational structure (7 FK relationships);
                 denormalization cost outweighs flexibility benefit
      Reversal: If schema changes weekly or data is primarily document-shaped

Stage 4: Confidence Decomposition

Break overall confidence into independent sub-components. Minimum 3, recommended 4-6.

Each sub-component gets:

A percentage (0-100%)
The evidence type supporting it (Empirical / Theoretical / Authority / Mixed)
A 1-2 sentence justification citing the specific basis

Overall Confidence: 72%

Sub-components:
  Technical Feasibility:   90% [Empirical] -- proven in similar systems (refs: X, Y benchmarks)
  Timeline Estimate:       45% [Theoretical] -- based on analogy to past project, but team composition differs
  Cost Projection:         60% [Mixed] -- infrastructure costs are empirical, opportunity cost is estimated
  Team Capability Match:   75% [Authority] -- based on stated team skills; not independently verified
  Risk Assessment:         80% [Theoretical] -- standard failure modes well-understood; novel integration untested

Weighted Overall: (90*0.3 + 45*0.25 + 60*0.15 + 75*0.15 + 80*0.15) = 71.5% ≈ 72%

The overall confidence is NOT the average. Weight sub-components by their importance to the conclusion.

Stage 5: Weakest Link & Alternative Conclusion

Weakest Link Identification: Which single assumption or sub-conclusion, if wrong, would MOST change the final answer?

Criteria for selecting the weakest link:

Highest criticality among assumptions
Lowest verifiability (hardest to confirm)
Lowest confidence among sub-components
The intersection of these three factors is the weakest link

Alternative Conclusion: "If [weakest link assumption] is wrong, then the conclusion changes to [X]."

This is not hypothetical filler -- it must be a genuinely reasoned alternative conclusion that follows logically from negating the weakest assumption.

Output Format

## Reasoning Trace: [Claim/Question]

### Atomic Claims
1. [Claim 1]
2. [Claim 2]
3. [Claim N]

### Assumption Inventory
| # | Assumption | Criticality | Verifiability | Tied to Claim |
|---|-----------|-------------|---------------|---------------|
| A1 | [Statement] | High | Directly Verifiable | Claim 1 |
| A2 | [Statement] | High | Unverifiable | Claim 2 |
| A3 | [Statement] | Medium | Indirectly Verifiable | Claim 1, 3 |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |

### Decision Forks

#### Fork 1: [Decision Point]
- **Chosen:** [Option] -- [rationale with evidence type label]
- **Rejected:** [Option] -- [specific rejection reason]
  - *Reversal condition:* [what would make this the right choice]
- **Rejected:** [Option] -- [specific rejection reason]
  - *Reversal condition:* [what would make this the right choice]

#### Fork 2: [Decision Point]
...

### Confidence Decomposition
| Dimension | Confidence | Evidence Type | Basis |
|-----------|-----------|---------------|-------|
| [Dimension 1] | XX% | Empirical | [specific justification] |
| [Dimension 2] | XX% | Theoretical | [specific justification] |
| [Dimension 3] | XX% | Authority | [specific justification] |
| [Dimension N] | XX% | Mixed | [specific justification] |

**Overall Confidence: XX%** (weighted by dimension importance)

### Weakest Link
**Assumption [A#]:** [restate the assumption]
- **Criticality:** High
- **Verifiability:** [rating]
- **Current confidence in this assumption:** XX%
- **Why this is the weakest link:** [explanation]
- **How to verify:** [concrete steps the user can take]

### Alternative Conclusion
> If **[weakest assumption]** is wrong, then:
> [Alternative conclusion with reasoning -- not a throwaway sentence but a genuinely traced alternative]

### Falsification Conditions
The main conclusion is wrong if ANY of these turn out to be true:
1. [Condition 1]
2. [Condition 2]
3. [Condition N]

Quality Calibration

BAD Example (Do NOT produce this)

Q: "Why did you recommend React over Vue?"

I recommended React because it has a larger ecosystem, more job
postings, and better TypeScript support. It's the safer choice
for most teams because it's battle-tested at scale by Meta and
many other companies.

Confidence: High.

Problems:

No assumptions stated -- what is this "high confidence" based on?
No alternatives explored -- was Vue even seriously considered?
No weakest link -- where should the user push back?
No decision forks -- what criteria determined "larger" or "better"?
"Battle-tested at scale" is an appeal to authority without specifics
Reads like a marketing pitch, not a reasoning trace

GOOD Example (Target this quality)

## Reasoning Trace: Why React over Vue for this project?

### Atomic Claims
1. React is a better framework fit for this project's requirements
2. The team will be more productive with React than Vue
3. React's ecosystem advantage outweighs Vue's simplicity advantage

### Assumption Inventory
| # | Assumption | Criticality | Verifiability | Tied to Claim |
|---|-----------|-------------|---------------|---------------|
| A1 | Team has 2+ engineers with React experience | High | Directly Verifiable | Claim 2 |
| A2 | Project requires complex state management | Medium | Directly Verifiable | Claim 1 |
| A3 | Hiring pipeline will favor React candidates | High | Indirectly Verifiable | Claim 2 |
| A4 | Project will need SSR capabilities | Medium | Directly Verifiable | Claim 1 |
| A5 | TypeScript will be used project-wide | Low | Directly Verifiable | Claim 3 |

### Decision Forks

#### Fork 1: Framework Selection
- **Chosen:** React -- larger component ecosystem (npm: 90k+ packages
  tagged "react" vs 25k+ "vue"), more mature SSR story (Next.js 15 stable
  vs Nuxt 4 recent), team has existing React experience (A1)
- **Rejected:** Vue -- lower learning curve, better developer ergonomics
  for smaller teams, Composition API is excellent
  - *Reversal condition:* If team has 0 React experience AND project is
    < 6 month lifespan AND no SSR needed, Vue's faster onboarding wins
- **Rejected:** Svelte -- best DX, smallest bundle, genuinely better
  reactivity model
  - *Reversal condition:* If team is greenfield (no framework experience),
    project is performance-critical consumer app, and hiring is not a
    constraint (small, stable team)

### Confidence Decomposition
| Dimension | Confidence | Evidence Type | Basis |
|-----------|-----------|---------------|-------|
| Framework capability match | 85% | Empirical | Feature comparison against requirements doc |
| Team productivity | 55% | Mixed | Based on stated skills (A1); not observed |
| Ecosystem longevity | 80% | Authority | Meta backing, npm download trends, State of JS 2025 |
| Hiring advantage | 50% | Indirectly Empirical | LinkedIn job postings (3:1 React:Vue ratio, but market shifts) |

**Overall Confidence: 68%** (productivity and hiring are uncertain
but heavily weighted)

### Weakest Link
**Assumption A1:** Team has 2+ engineers with React experience
- **Criticality:** High
- **Verifiability:** Directly Verifiable
- **Current confidence:** 70% (stated by PM, not verified via code review)
- **Why this is the weakest link:** If the team lacks real React
  experience, the productivity advantage evaporates and Vue's lower
  learning curve becomes the dominant factor
- **How to verify:** Review team members' recent commits; conduct
  brief technical screen on React patterns (hooks, context, suspense)

### Alternative Conclusion
> If **team React experience (A1)** is overstated, then Vue is the
> better choice: its gentler learning curve (Composition API maps
> well to React hooks mental model but with less boilerplate),
> better documentation, and faster time-to-productive offset the
> smaller ecosystem. The recommendation flips to Vue with Nuxt.

### Falsification Conditions
1. Team has < 2 engineers genuinely proficient in React (not just "used it once")
2. Project scope shrinks to < 6 months with no SSR requirement
3. Hiring is not a concern (stable team, no growth planned)

When to Use

After any recommendation: "Why Postgres?" "Why microservices?" "Why this library?"
After any estimate: "Why 2 weeks?" "Why $50k?" "Why 3 engineers?"
During architecture decisions where stakeholders need to audit the reasoning
Code review rationale: "Why did you flag this as a security issue?"
When the user says "convince me" or "I'm not sure about this"
Post-mortem analysis: "Why did we think X would work?"
Any high-stakes decision where the reasoning must survive scrutiny

When NOT to Use

Simple factual lookups with clear answers ("What port does Postgres use?")
Creative brainstorming where structured reasoning kills ideation (use creativity-sampler)
When the user wants a quick answer and explicitly says so
Exhaustive code/system analysis without a specific claim to trace (use deep-dive-analyzer)
Stress-testing someone else's reasoning (use adversarial-review -- it attacks; this skill exposes)
Research requiring external source verification (use cross-verified-research for facts; this skill traces reasoning about facts)

Integration Notes

Before adversarial-review: Trace your reasoning first, then stress-test it. The assumption inventory from reasoning-tracer feeds directly into adversarial-review's attack vectors.
After cross-verified-research: Research gathers verified facts; reasoning-tracer then makes the logic connecting those facts to a conclusion transparent.
With creativity-sampler: When creativity-sampler generates options, reasoning-tracer can trace why one option was selected over others.
With deep-dive-analyzer: Deep-dive produces exhaustive understanding; reasoning-tracer adds the "so what" -- why that understanding leads to a specific conclusion.
With skill-composer: Common pipeline: cross-verified-research -> reasoning-tracer -> adversarial-review (gather facts -> trace reasoning -> stress-test conclusion).

reasoning-tracer