Idea Pool Expander (operator-driven)

Goal: create a big pool of idea candidates that genuinely expands thinking, but remains controllable and auditable.

This skill writes the Idea Pool section of output/IDEA_SHORTLIST.md. The final shortlist is handled by idea-shortlist-curator.

Inputs

• output/IDEA_BRIEF.md
• outline/taxonomy.yml
• papers/paper_notes.jsonl
• papers/core_set.csv

Outputs

• output/IDEA_SHORTLIST.md

Operators (use explicitly)

Use these operator families to force diversity. Target >=6/8 families represented.

1. Counterfactual / constraint flip
2. Failure-mode-first
3. Evaluation protocol swap (task/metric/budget)
4. Component swap in an agent loop
5. Combination with explicit assumptions
6. Cross-domain analogy import
7. Negative-result mining
8. System/product constraints (cost/latency/auditability)

Procedure (best-of-N, then write)

1. Read the contract from output/IDEA_BRIEF.md

• Scope / exclusions / constraints
• Targets: pool size range, shortlist size, operator mix (default 50/50)

2. Use outline/taxonomy.yml as the idea map

• Ensure the pool covers multiple clusters (avoid all ideas collapsing into one bucket).

3. Use papers/paper_notes.jsonl to avoid fantasy ideas

• Prefer ideas that respond to explicit limitations/failure modes recorded in notes.

4. Multi-sample within each operator family (best-of-N)

• For each operator family, generate 2-3 alternative mini-sets.
• Choose the best mini-set by: novelty, clarity, falsifiability.

5. Write the Idea Pool into output/IDEA_SHORTLIST.md

• Pool size: 60-90 (hard min 60)
• Each idea is a short card (3-6 lines):
  • Tier label (Tier-0 Wild / Tier-1 Plausible / Tier-2 Ready)
  • Operator tag
  • One-liner problem statement
  • Key assumption
  • How to falsify (1 sentence)
  • Evidence pointers:
    • Tier-0: optional
    • Tier-1/2: required (>=1 paper_id from papers/core_set.csv)

6. Add a small "Pool Diagnostics" block

• Counts by tier
• Counts by operator family
• Coverage across taxonomy clusters

Acceptance

• output/IDEA_SHORTLIST.md contains an "Idea Pool" section with 60-90 ideas.
• Operator coverage >=6/8.
• Every Tier-1/2 idea includes at least one pointer to papers/core_set.csv (paper_id).
• Cards are short; no long paragraphs.

Troubleshooting

Issue: pool feels repetitive / not expanding

Fix:

• Increase operator coverage (force missing families).
• Add at least 5 ideas that are failure-mode-first and 5 that are evaluation-protocol-swap.

Issue: too many wild ideas

Fix:

• Convert some Tier-0 into Tier-1 by attaching at least one paper_id pointer.
• Or explicitly tag as "needs verification" and keep it out of the final shortlist.