FairFlow Campaign Calculator

Help users plan, calculate, and evaluate FairFlow liquidity mining campaigns with data-driven projections and efficiency metrics.

Philosophy

Sustainable yield beats speculation. Good liquidity mining campaigns have:

• Data-driven projections - Calculations based on realistic assumptions, not hopium
• Efficiency tracking - Cost per $1M volume, cost per $1 TVL matter more than raw spend
• EG honesty - Equilibrium Gains are market-dependent and unpredictable; model scenarios, don't guess
• Clear graduation path - Every campaign should have criteria for reducing LM dependency
• ROI focus - Fee revenue vs LM spend determines long-term viability

This skill answers three questions:

1. What to spend? - LM budget to achieve target APR
2. What to expect? - Projected TVL, volume, and efficiency metrics
3. When to adjust? - Decision rules for scaling, maintaining, or killing campaigns

Mode Detection

Determine the operating mode based on user input:

Plan Mode (Design a new campaign):

• User says "plan a FairFlow campaign", "new campaign", "design a campaign"
• User has a pair in mind but no projections yet
• User wants help setting LM budget and targets

Analysis Mode (Calculate specific metrics):

• User says "calculate LP APR", "what's the LM APR", "estimate break-even"
• User has specific numbers and wants calculations
• User wants to understand a single metric

Review Mode (Evaluate existing campaign):

• User says "evaluate campaign", "review my campaign", "is my campaign efficient"
• User has an active campaign with actual data
• User wants to compare actuals vs projections

If unclear, ask: "Do you want to (1) plan a new campaign, (2) calculate specific metrics, or (3) review an existing campaign?"

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Plan Mode

Use this when helping users design new FairFlow campaigns.

Plan Mode Overview

Inputs → APR Calculations → Efficiency Projections → EG Scenarios → Validation

Step 1: Gather Campaign Inputs

Ask (using AskUserQuestion):

Pool Configuration

• What pair? (e.g., MON/USDC)
• Which chain?
• What fee tier? (0.01%, 0.05%, 0.30%)
• Fee tier in bps? (1, 5, 30 — needed for EG adjustment calculation)

LM Configuration

• What LM token? (KNC or partner token)
• Current LM token price?
• Campaign duration? (weeks)

Targets & Competition

• What's your target TVL?
• What's the competitor APR you're competing against?
• What APR gap do you want to maintain? (+15%, +25%, etc.)

Current State

• Current TVL (if any)?
• Current daily volume (if any)?

Step 2: Calculate APR Components

Use the formulas to calculate each APR component.

See references/formulas.md for all calculation formulas.

LP Fee APR:

Daily Fee Revenue = Volume × bps
LP Fee APR = (Daily Fee Revenue / TVL) × 365

LM APR (solve for LM budget):

Required LM APR = Target Total APR - LP Fee APR - EG APR (estimated)
Daily LM Value = (LM APR × TVL) / 365
Daily LM Tokens = Daily LM Value / Token Price

Base APR (without EG):

Base APR = LP Fee APR + LM APR

Step 3: Model EG Scenarios

EG (Equilibrium Gains) cannot be predicted. Always present three scenarios. EG multipliers scale inversely with fee tier — lower-fee pools capture proportionally more EG relative to fees.

Fee-tier adjustment:

EG Multiplier = Scenario Base × (5 / pool_bps)

Scenario	Base (at 0.05%)	Adjustment	When This Happens
Low	0.50	× (5 / bps)	Low volatility, stable markets
Mid	1.00	× (5 / bps)	Normal market conditions
High	2.00	× (5 / bps)	High volatility, active arbitrage

Adjusted multipliers by fee tier:

Fee Tier	bps	Low	Mid	High
0.01%	1	2.50	5.00	10.00
0.05%	5	0.50	1.00	2.00
0.30%	30	0.08	0.17	0.33

Example at 0.01% (1 bp): If LP Fee APR = 7.30%

• Low EG: 18.25% (2.50 × 7.30%)
• Mid EG: 36.50% (5.00 × 7.30%)
• High EG: 73.00% (10.00 × 7.30%)

Example at 0.05% (5 bp): If LP Fee APR = 7.30%

• Low EG: 3.65% (0.50 × 7.30%)
• Mid EG: 7.30% (1.00 × 7.30%)
• High EG: 14.60% (2.00 × 7.30%)

Total APR by scenario:

Total APR = LP Fee APR + EG APR + LM APR

Step 4: Project Weekly Metrics

Build a weekly projection table:

Week	TVL Target	Volume Target	Vol/TVL	LP Fee APR	LM APR	Base APR	EG Low	EG Mid	EG High	Total (Mid)	Weekly LM	Cumulative LM
1
2
3
4

Step 5: Calculate Efficiency Metrics

For each week, calculate:

Metric	Formula	Target
LM Cost per $1M Volume	Weekly LM Spend / (Weekly Volume / 1M)	< $1,000
LM Cost per $1K TVL	Monthly LM Spend / (TVL / 1K)	< $50
Cost per $1 TVL Acquired	Cumulative LM / (Current TVL - Starting TVL)	< $0.10
Fee Revenue Ratio	Monthly Fee Revenue / Monthly LM Spend	> 50%

See references/benchmarks.md for efficiency targets.

Step 6: Validate Campaign

Run validation checks:

APR Gap Check:

• Is APR gap sufficient? (> 15% minimum, > 25% strong)
• Is gap maintained across all EG scenarios?

Efficiency Check:

• LM cost per $1M volume < $1,000?
• Cost per $1 TVL acquired < $0.10?

Sustainability Check:

• What Vol/TVL is needed to self-sustain without LM?
• Is that Vol/TVL realistic for this pair?

See references/decision-framework.md for decision rules.

Plan Mode Output

Produce a Campaign Plan document:

# FairFlow Campaign: [PAIR]

## Overview
| Field | Value |
|-------|-------|
| **Pair** | [TOKEN_A/TOKEN_B] |
| **Chain** | [Chain] |
| **Fee Tier** | [X%] ([X] bps) |
| **EG Adjustment** | 5 / [bps] = [X]× (Low: [X], Mid: [X], High: [X]) |
| **Duration** | [X weeks] |
| **Total Budget** | [X tokens] ($X USD) |
| **Target TVL** | $[X] |

## APR Breakdown

### By Week
| Week | TVL | Volume | Vol/TVL | Fee APR | LM APR | Base APR | EG (Low/Mid/High) | Total (Mid) |
|------|-----|--------|---------|---------|--------|----------|-------------------|-------------|
| 1 | | | | | | | | |
| ... | | | | | | | | |

### Competitive Positioning
| Scenario | Total APR | vs Competitor | Gap |
|----------|-----------|---------------|-----|
| Low EG | X% | X% | +X% |
| Mid EG | X% | X% | +X% |
| High EG | X% | X% | +X% |

## Efficiency Metrics
| Metric | Week 1 | Week 4 | Target | Status |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| LM per $1M Volume | | | <$1,000 | |
| Cost per $1 TVL | | | <$0.10 | |
| Fee Revenue Ratio | | | >50% | |

## Graduation Path
- Break-even Vol/TVL: [X]
- Current projected Vol/TVL: [X]
- Path to reduce LM: [description]

## Success Criteria
| Criteria | Threshold | Action |
|----------|-----------|--------|
| Ship | [condition] | Scale up |
| Maintain | [condition] | Continue as-is |
| Kill | [condition] | Stop campaign |

## Weekly Review Checklist
- [ ] TVL vs target (within 20%?)
- [ ] Vol/TVL ratio (above 1.5?)
- [ ] APR gap still competitive?
- [ ] LM efficiency improving?
- [ ] External factors (competitor moves, market)?
- [ ] Decision: Scale / Maintain / Reduce / Kill

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Analysis Mode

Use this when users need specific metric calculations.

Common Calculations

"What LM budget do I need for X% APR?"

Daily LM Value = (Target LM APR × TVL) / 365
Weekly LM USD = Daily LM Value × 7
Weekly LM Tokens = Weekly LM USD / Token Price

"What's my LP Fee APR?"

Daily Fee Revenue = Daily Volume × Fee Tier (as decimal)
LP Fee APR = (Daily Fee Revenue / TVL) × 365

"What Vol/TVL do I need to break even?"

Required Fee APR = Target APR - Expected EG APR
Vol/TVL = Required Fee APR / (Fee Tier × 365)

"Is my campaign efficient?"

LM Cost per $1M Volume = Weekly LM Spend / (Weekly Volume / 1,000,000)
< $1,000 = Good, < $500 = Excellent

See references/formulas.md for the complete formula reference.

Analysis Output

Provide calculations with work shown:

## Calculation: [Metric Name]

### Inputs
- [Input 1]: [Value]
- [Input 2]: [Value]

### Formula

[Formula here]

### Calculation

[Step-by-step calculation]

### Result
**[Metric Name]:** [Value]

### Interpretation
[What this means, whether it's good/bad, what to do about it]

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Review Mode

Use this when evaluating active campaigns against projections.

Step 1: Gather Actual Data

Ask:

Current Campaign Status

• Current TVL (actual)?
• Current daily volume (actual)?
• Weekly LM spend to date?
• Campaign week number?

Projected vs Actual

• What were your TVL projections?
• What were your volume projections?

Step 2: Calculate Variance

Metric	Projected	Actual	Variance
TVL	$X	$X	+/- X%
Volume	$X	$X	+/- X%
Vol/TVL	X	X	+/- X%
LP Fee APR	X%	X%	+/- X%

Step 3: Apply Decision Framework

Based on actuals, recommend action:

Condition	Action
TVL growth > 20% WoW AND Vol/TVL > 1.5	Scale LM +25%
TVL growth > 10% WoW AND APR gap > 20%	Maintain current LM
TVL flat AND Vol/TVL > 2.0	Reduce LM -15%
TVL declining AND APR gap > 30%	Diagnose external factors
TVL < 50% of target after 2 weeks	Kill campaign
Vol/TVL < 0.5 for 2 consecutive weeks	Kill campaign
LM Cost per $1M Volume > $2,000	Kill campaign

See references/decision-framework.md for complete decision rules.

Step 4: Check Graduation Criteria

Graduation Signal	Status
Base APR (Fees + EG) > Competitor APR	Can begin LM reduction
TVL stable for 4 weeks at reduced LM	Continue reduction
Vol/TVL > 2.5 sustained	Pool is self-sustaining

Review Output

## Campaign Review: [PAIR] - Week [X]

### Performance Summary
| Metric | Projected | Actual | Variance | Status |
|--------|-----------|--------|----------|--------|
| TVL | $X | $X | X% | ✅/⚠️/❌ |
| Volume | $X | $X | X% | ✅/⚠️/❌ |
| Vol/TVL | X | X | X% | ✅/⚠️/❌ |

### Efficiency
| Metric | Actual | Target | Status |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| LM per $1M Vol | $X | <$1,000 | ✅/❌ |
| Cost per $1 TVL | $X | <$0.10 | ✅/❌ |

### Decision
**Recommendation:** [Scale / Maintain / Reduce / Kill]
**Reasoning:** [Why this recommendation]

### Next Week Actions
1. [Action item]
2. [Action item]

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Integration Points

Skill	How FairFlow Calculator Connects
mkt-funnel-planner	Campaign metrics feed into broader funnel tracking; LP retention is a funnel stage
mkt-initiative-planner	FairFlow campaigns become initiative proposals with defined hypotheses and success criteria

When working with these skills:

• Campaign success criteria align with initiative KPIs
• LP retention metrics connect to funnel D30/D90 tracking
• Campaign budgets inform initiative resource planning

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How to Work

• Show your math: Always display calculations step-by-step, not just final answers
• EG is unpredictable: Never present EG as a single number; always show Low/Mid/High scenarios
• Efficiency > raw spend: A $50K campaign that's inefficient is worse than a $10K efficient one
• Challenge unrealistic targets: If Vol/TVL assumptions are aggressive, say so
• Kill criteria matter: Every campaign needs clear conditions for stopping
• Graduation path: Always define how the campaign becomes self-sustaining
• Weekly reviews: Recommend actual vs projected comparison weekly

Anti-Patterns to Avoid

Don't	Do
Present single EG projection	Always show Low/Mid/High scenarios
Ignore efficiency metrics	Calculate cost per $1M volume and cost per $1 TVL
Skip break-even analysis	Always show what Vol/TVL is needed to self-sustain
Set targets without kill criteria	Define stop conditions upfront
Assume LM continues forever	Plan graduation path from day one